国内经济动向.docx

国内经济动向.docx

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国内经济动向

RecentDevelopment

intheKoreanEconomy

December2000

ResearchDepartment

Contents

1.IndustrialPerformance

2.DomesticDemand

3.EmploymentandWages

4.Externaltransactions

5.Prices

1.IndustrialPerformance

（ManufacturingSector）

ㅇTheproductiongrowthinthemanufacturingsectordeclinedfurtherinOctober.

―Theproductiongrowthinautomobileswasexpandedthankstofavorableexports,but,duetoslowingoverseasdemands,thatinsemiconductorsscaleddown.Consequently,itsrateofincreasedroppedto11.6%fromthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

ㅇAverageoperationratioofthemanufacturingsectorstoodat76.4%withfallingfortwoconsecutivemonths.

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

Changeinproduction

21.0

34.2

19.8

25.4

15.6

11.6

20.1

19.8

（S.A.percentchangecompared

withthepreviousperiod,%）

3.8

2.8

3.5

3.9

-4.4

-0.6

8.4

-

Averageoperationratio1）

79.4

78.5

81.1

82.0

78.1

76.4

80.4

79.4

Note:

1）Seasonallyadjustedoperationratioindex×Baseoperationratio（Averageoperationratioof81.0%in1995）

Source:

NationalStatisticsOffice[CurrentIndustrialActivities]

ㅇInshipment,theshipmentfordomesticuseshowedslowinggrowthfollowingtheprevious

monthandtheshipmentforexportswasalsoslowingsharply.

TrendsofShipmentintheManufacturingSector

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2ndQ.

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

ChangesintheShipment

21.8

35.5

19.5

25.4

15.5

9.2

18.0

20.1

19.5

（S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth,%）

4.2

2.4

2.9

4.0

-4.1

-3.2

-0.2

8.6

-

Domesticuse（Allindustries）

Exportuse（Allindustries）

16.9

27.2

29.7

41.5

10.6

31.2

14.1

39.6

6.1

27.2

6.4

12.6

14.6

22.1

10.3

32.5

14.8

25.4

ㅇInventoriesinthemanufacturingsectorincreased5.2%fromthepreviousmonthcentering

onsemiconductors（+18.6%）andchemicals（+9.0%）.

―Theinventory-to-shipmentindex（inventoriesindex/shipmentindex）increasedto80.6,

arecordhighsinceMay1999.

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Changeininventories（Comparedwiththesamemonthofthepreviousyear,%）

-8.3

-4.2

14.9

14.2

14.9

18.9

〃（S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth,%）

1.7

1.5

3.8

0.3

2.1

5.2

Inventory-to-shipmentratioindex1）

74.7

74.1

72.2

69.7

74.2

80.6

Note:

1）（Inventoriesindex/Shipmentindex）×100,basedontheseasonallyadjustedseries

Source:

NationalStatisticsOffice[CurrentIndustrialActivities]

（Non-manufacturingSector）

ㅇInelectricityandgasindustry,asproductionactivitieshavebecomelackluster,salesofelectricitytothemanufacturingsectormaintainedalowgrowthrateandthehouseholddeclinedsharply.

ㅇInwholesale&retailandfood&lodgingindustry,increaserateofthewholesale&retailsalescontinuedtodropandthegrowthrateofthenumberofforeignvisitorsshoweddownconsiderably.

ㅇIntransport,storageandcommunication,thenumberofmobilesubscribersincreasedandthegrowthrateoftransportationvolumeatroadsandharborswasslightlyhigher,whileairlines’shareinthetransportationvolumegreatlydecreased.

TrendsofPrincipalProductionIndicatorsinNon-manufacturingsector

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2ndQ.

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

Electricityandgasproductionindex1）

9.5

19.4

13.1

12.6

4.4

9.0

11.9

10.1

13.0

〃（S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousperiod,%）

3.9

-1.4

2.6

0.2

-4.1

3.4

-2.7

2.4

-

Salesofelectricpower

10.8

14.8

12.0

13.0

5.9

6.7

11.6

10.3

12.1

（Manufacturing）

9.8

19.3

6.9

9.3

3.2

6.2

9.9

6.4

10.6

（Servicesector）

14.7

13.4

22.6

19.4

12.1

13.3

20.3

17.9

20.3

（Householduse）

7.2

4.1

12.4

17.2

5.6

0.0

6.2

11.6

7.4

Citywatersupply

-0.5

0.0

1.2

-1.5

-2.9

-2.5

2.6

-1.0

-0.1

Servicesector2）

..

8.3

9.6

7.8

9.3

8.6

Wholesaleandretailsalesindex1）

14.6

16.2

8.3

8.2

6.1

4.9

12.4

7.6

10.7

〃（S.A.percentchangecomparedwiththepreviousmonth,%）

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.6

-1.6

-1.3

0.3

1.7

-

Hotels&restaurants2）

..

10.1

10.4

10.6

8.5

10.4

Numberofincomingforeigners

6.3

15.2

16.7

9.7

16.9

6.9

17.6

14.4

14.7

DomesticshipmentofSoju

18.4

33.1

-9.5

-11.4

-19.7

-17.2

-7.9

-13.9

-12.7

Domesticshipmentofbeer

6.0

27.9

9.4

19.3

5.9

-8.2

7.7

11.6

9.8

Domesticshipmentofwhiskey

79.4

148.0

44.2

29.2

10.9

11.5

-5.6

27.6

9.8

Transport,storage&communication2）

..

12.5

10.9

7.5

13.9

10.3

Vehiclesusinghighway

8.8

6.6

16.0

15.4

13.1

17.5

15.5

14.9

15.4

Aircargotransport

15.6

17.0

17.9

15.4

13.7

6.4

15.0

15.6

13.9

NumberofcontainershandledinBusanHarbor3）

6.7

12.5

9.0

3.6

4.4

5.6

9.6

5.6

8.9

Numberofregisteredvehicles4）

5.1

5.7

8.3

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.1

8.4

8.3

Mobilephonesubscribers（thousand）4）

21,560

22,320

26,089

25,832

26,047

26,479

26,570

26,047

26,479

Increaserateofmobilephonesubscribers4）

77.2

71.2

36.2

27.0

20.8

18.6

47.6

20.8

18.6

Notes:

1）NationalStatisticsOffice「CurrentIndustrialActivities」

2）NationalStatisticsOffice「Currentindustrialactivitiesinservicesector」3）Basedonimport-exportcargo

4）Sourcesasoftheperiod-end:

KoreaElectricPower,KoreaWaterResourceCorp.,KoreaNationalTourismOrganization,KoreaHighwayCorp.,KoreaAirportsAuthority,PusanRegionalMaritimeAffairs&FisheriesOffice,MinistryofConstructionandTransportation,MinistryofInformationandCommunication

2.DomesticDemand

（Consumption）

ㅇThegrowthrateofconsumptionwasremarkablyshrunkinOctober.

―Theincreaseratesofdurableandsemi-durablegoodssuchasautomobiles,

mobilephones,andshoesfellsharply.

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2ndQ.

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

Householdconsumption（Nationalaccounts）

-

-

-

-

9.1

5.8

-

Consumergoodssalesindex

19.0

19.9

15.3

12.1

10.2

5.9

17.1

12.6

14.5

-Durables

-Semi-durables

-Non-durables

33.8

18.5

13.2

55.8

20.8

4.6

37.1

8.2

8.3

22.9

8.1

8.9

17.3

8.8

7.8

5.5

1.9

9.2

36.1

10.9

12.1

25.9

8.4

8.6

31.7

8.7

9.9

Source:

NationalStatisticsOffice[CurrentIndustrialActivities],TheBankofKorea[NationalAccounts]

（Investment）

ㅇFacilitiesinvestmentcontinuedtoslow.

―Therateofincreaseoffacilitiesinvestmentestimates,thebroadestoneamongcoincidentindicators,wasasmuchasthatofthepreviousmonth,butdomesticshipmentsofmachineryandimportsofmachineryfordomesticusebecamemoredull.

·Theinvestmentininformationandtechnologysectorsuchascomputerand

communicationsequipmentcontinuedtoshowafavorabletrend,butthatin

transportationequipmentwaspersistentlydroveintoaslump.

―Thegrowthrateofdomesticmachineryordersreceived,aleadingindicator,decreasedsharplycenteringaroundindustrialmachineryandtransportvehicles.

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2ndQ.

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

FacilitiesInvestment（NationalAccounts）

-

-

-

-

41.3

32.0

-

FacilitiesInvestmentestimates

62.6

42.9

28.6

30.5

38.1

18.9

34.2

29.0

39.1

DomesticShipmentofMachinery1）

52.3

29.0

30.5

36.6

46.1

33.0

42.9

38.4

47.3

ImportofMachineryforDomesticUse2）

41.7

58.0

38.5

61.3

79.2

31.6

60.1

55.8

63.4

DomesticMachineryOrdersReceived2）

29.1

10.6

-5.8

26.8

14.8

9.5

8.3

17.1

14.3

Notes:

1）BasedonConstantIndexin19952）BasedonNominalAmounts

Source:

NationalStatisticsOffice[CurrentIndustrialActivities],TheBankofKorea[NationalAccounts]

ㅇInvestmentinthebuildingconstructionwasstilldepressed.

―Inbuildingconstruction,thevalueofalreadyconstructedbuildingsincreasedslightlybut

permittedareaauthorizedforbuildingconstructionandconstructionordersreceived,

leadingindicators,alldecreased.

―Incivilengineering,valueofworksinthecivilengineeringmaintaineditsdecreasing

trend,anditsordersreceived,aleadingindicator,alsoturnedlower.

（Comparedwiththesameperiodofthepreviousyear,%）

1999

2000

2000

Sept

Oct

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

2ndQ.

3rdQ

Jan∼Oct

ConstructionInvestment（NationalAccounts）

-

-

-

-

-4.7

-3.5

-

ValueofConstructionWork1）

-2.9

0.8

-0.3

-2.6

-6.1

-0.7

-2.4

-3.1

-3.4

ConstructionOrdersReceived1）

36.5

33.9

12.7

45.2

-18.4

-16.8

20.4

8.5

23.6

DomesticShipmentofIntermediateGoodsforConstruction

-3.8

24.0

5.2

8.1

2.3

5.8

9.3

5.1

8.0

ValueofBuildingConstructionWork1）

-6.6

0.6

1.8

0.8

-1.1

3.2

1.5

0.5

0.9

AreasWinningApprovalforConstruction

81.6

277.7

32.6

55.0

16.0

-7.5

35.6

33.4

38.8

-Dwelling

-Factoryuse

-Commercialuse

111.5

204.5

30.9

358.8

353.2

219.6

27.3

-2.3

87.7

64.7

-10.9

86.1

-5.2

75.5

34.6

-19.4

-17.8

31.2

16.4

83.0

91.1

25.5

20.5

69.2

23.1

72.5

80.1

BuildingConstructionOrdersReceived1）

124.3

199.2

26.7

46.0

-53.3

-20.1

43.0

-5.3

32.0

ValueofCivilEngineeringWork1）

1.0

0.4

-3.5

-7.6

-12.1

-6.2

-8.3

-7.9

-9.3

CivilEngineeringOrdersReceive