国内经济动向.docx

1、国内经济动向Recent Developmentin the Korean EconomyDecember 2000Research DepartmentContents1. Industrial Performance 2. Domestic Demand 3. Employment and Wages 4. External transactions 5. Prices 1. Industrial Performance (Manufacturing Sector) The production growth in the manufacturing sector declined fur

2、ther in October. The production growth in automobiles was expanded thanks to favorable exports, but, due to slowing overseas demands, that in semiconductors scaled down. Consequently, its rate of increase dropped to 11.6% from the same period of the previous year. Average operation ratio of the manu

3、facturing sector stood at 76.4% with falling for two consecutive months.(Compared with the same period of the previous year, %)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct3rd QJanOctChange in production 21.034.219.825.415.611.620.119.8(S.A. percent change comparedwith the previous period,%)3.82.83.53.9-4.4-0.6

4、8.4-Average operation ratio1)79.478.581.182.078.176.480.479.4Note: 1) Seasonally adjusted operation ratio index Base operation ratio (Average operation ratio of 81.0% in 1995)Source: National Statistics Office Current Industrial Activities In shipment, the shipment for domestic use showed slowing gr

5、owth following the previous month and the shipment for exports was also slowing sharply. Trends of Shipment in the Manufacturing Sector(Compared with the same period of the previous year, %)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2nd Q.3rd QJanOctChanges in the Shipment21.835.519.525.415.59.218.020.119.5(S

6、.A. percent change compared with the previous month,%)4.22.42.94.0-4.1-3.2-0.28.6-Domestic use (All industries)Export use (All industries)16.927.229.741.510.631.214.139.66.127.26.412.614.622.110.332.514.825.4 Inventories in the manufacturing sector increased 5.2% from the previous month centering on

7、 semiconductors (+18.6%) and chemicals (+9.0%). The inventory-to-shipment index(inventories index/shipment index) increased to 80.6, a record high since May 1999. (Compared with the same period of the previous year, %)19992000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct Change in inventories (Compared with the same month

8、of the previous year, %)-8.3-4.214.914.214.918.9 (S.A. percent change compared with the previous month,%) 1.71.53.80.32.15.2Inventory-to-shipment ratio index1)74.774.172.269.774.280.6Note: 1) (Inventories index/Shipment index)100, based on the seasonally adjusted seriesSource: National Statistics Of

9、fice Current Industrial Activities (Non-manufacturing Sector) In electricity and gas industry, as production activities have become lackluster, sales of electricity to the manufacturing sector maintained a low growth rate and the household declined sharply. In wholesale & retail and food & lodging i

10、ndustry, increase rate of the wholesale & retail sales continued to drop and the growth rate of the number of foreign visitors showed down considerably. In transport, storage and communication, the number of mobile subscribers increased and the growth rate of transportation volume at roads and harbo

11、rs was slightly higher, while airlines share in the transportation volume greatly decreased. Trends of Principal Production Indicators in Non-manufacturing sector (Compared with the same period of the previous year, %)199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2nd Q.3rd QJanOctElectricity and gas production i

12、ndex 1)9.519.413.112.64.49.011.910.113.0 (S.A. percent change compared with the previous period,%)3.9-1.42.60.2-4.13.4-2.72.4- Sales of electric power10.814.812.013.05.96.711.610.312.1 (Manufacturing)9.819.36.99.33.26.29.96.410.6 (Service sector)14.713.422.619.412.113.320.317.920.3 (Household use)7.

13、24.112.417.25.60.06.211.67.4City water supply-0.50.01.2-1.5-2.9-2.52.6-1.0-0.1Service sector 2).8.39.67.89.38.6 Wholesale and retail sales index1)14.616.28.38.26.14.912.47.610.7 (S.A. percent change compared with the previous month,%)0.20.00.60.6-1.6-1.30.31.7- Hotels & restaurants 2).10.110.410.68.

14、510.4 Number of incoming foreigners6.315.216.79.716.96.917.614.414.7 Domestic shipment of Soju18.433.1-9.5-11.4-19.7-17.2-7.9-13.9-12.7 Domestic shipment of beer6.027.99.419.35.9-8.27.711.69.8 Domestic shipment of whiskey79.4148.044.229.210.911.5-5.627.69.8 Transport, storage & communication 2).12.5

15、10.97.513.910.3 Vehicles using highway8.86.616.015.413.117.515.514.915.4 Air cargo transport15.617.017.915.413.76.415.015.613.9 Number of containers handled in Busan Harbor 3)6.712.59.03.64.45.69.65.68.9 Number of registered vehicles 4)5.15.78.38.48.48.38.18.48.3 Mobile phone subscribers (thousand)

16、4)21,56022,32026,08925,83226,04726,47926,57026,04726,479 Increase rate of mobile phone subscribers 4)77.271.236.227.020.818.647.620.818.6Notes : 1) National Statistics Office Current Industrial Activities 2) National Statistics OfficeCurrent industrial activities in service sector 3) Based on import

17、-export cargo 4) Sources as of the period-end: Korea Electric Power, Korea Water Resource Corp., Korea National Tourism Organization, Korea Highway Corp., Korea Airports Authority, Pusan Regional Maritime Affairs & Fisheries Office, Ministry of Construction and Transportation, Ministry of Informatio

18、n and Communication2. Domestic Demand (Consumption) The growth rate of consumption was remarkably shrunk in October. The increase rates of durable and semi-durable goods such as automobiles, mobile phones, and shoes fell sharply. (Compared with the same period of the previous year, %) 199920002000Se

19、ptOctJulyAugSeptOct2nd Q.3rd QJanOctHousehold consumption (National accounts) - - - -9.15.8 -Consumer goods sales index19.019.915.312.110.25.917.112.614.5 -Durables- Semi-durables - Non-durables 33.8 18.513.255.820.84.637.1 8.28.322.98.1 8.917.38.87.85.51.99.236.110.912.125.98.48.631.78.79.9Source:

20、National Statistics Office Current Industrial Activities, The Bank of Korea National Accounts (Investment) Facilities investment continued to slow. The rate of increase of facilities investment estimates, the broadest one among coincident indicators, was as much as that of the previous month, but do

21、mestic shipments of machinery and imports of machinery for domestic use became more dull. The investment in information and technology sector such as computer and communications equipment continued to show a favorable trend, but that in transportation equipment was persistently drove into a slump. T

22、he growth rate of domestic machinery orders received, a leading indicator, decreased sharply centering around industrial machinery and transport vehicles. (Compared with the same period of the previous year, %) 199920002000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2nd Q.3rd QJanOctFacilities Investment (National Account

23、s)-41.332.0 -Facilities Investment estimates62.642.928.630.538.118.934.229.039.1Domestic Shipment of Machinery1)52.329.030.536.646.133.042.938.447.3Import of Machinery for Domestic Use 2)41.758.038.561.379.231.660.155.863.4Domestic Machinery Orders Received 2) 29.110.6-5.826.814.89.58.317.114.3Notes

24、: 1) Based on Constant Index in 1995 2) Based on Nominal AmountsSource: National Statistics Office Current Industrial Activities, The Bank of Korea National Accounts Investment in the building construction was still depressed. In building construction, the value of already constructed buildings incr

25、eased slightly but permitted area authorized for building construction and construction orders received, leading indicators, all decreased. In civil engineering, value of works in the civil engineering maintained its decreasing trend, and its orders received, a leading indicator, also turned lower.

26、(Compared with the same period of the previous year, %) 19992000 2000SeptOctJulyAugSeptOct2nd Q.3rd QJanOct Construction Investment (National Accounts) - - - -4.7-3.5 - Value of Construction Work1)-2.90.8-0.3-2.6-6.1-0.7-2.4-3.1-3.4 Construction Orders Received 1)36.533.912.745.2-18.4-16.8 20.48.523

27、.6Domestic Shipment of Intermediate Goods for Construction-3.824.05.28.12.35.8 9.35.18.0 Value of Building Construction Work 1)-6.60.61.80.8-1.13.2 1.50.50.9Areas Winning Approval for Construction81.6277.732.655.016.0-7.535.633.438.8 - Dwelling - Factory use - Commercial use111.5204.530.9358.8353.2219.6 27.3-2.387.764.7-10.986.1-5.275.534.6-19.4-17.831.216.4 83.0 91.125.520.569.223.172.580.1Building Construction Orders Received 1)124.3199.226.746.0-53.3-20.143.0-5.332.0 Value of Civil Engineering Work 1)1.00.4-3.5-7.6-12.1-6.2-8.3-7.9-9.3Civil Engineering Orders Receive