专家系统方法以尽量减少人才外流的影响外文翻译.docx

专家系统方法以尽量减少人才外流的影响外文翻译.docx

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专家系统方法以尽量减少人才外流的影响外文翻译

中文3460字

本科毕业论文（设计）

外文翻译

外文题目Expertsystemsapproachtominimizetheeffectsofbraindrain

外文出处IJCM

外文作者NaveedSaleemAbbasN.Azad

原文：

Expertsystemsapproachtominimizetheeffectsofbraindrain

NaveedSaleemAbbasN.Azad

Braindraininflictsseriouseconomicandsocialhardshipsondevelopingcountries.Consequently,thesecountriesresorttosuchmeasuresasgovernmentalregulationsandeconomicincentives,whichaimtoslowdownemigrationoftheirskilledprofessionals.However,thesemeasuresprovegenerallyineffective.

Furthermore,predictiveresearchonbraindrainfindsonlyfurtherincreasein,ratherthananydeclineof,theexodusofskilledprofessionalsfromdevelopingcountries,whichexacerbatesthebraindrainproblem.Thispaperadvocatestheuseofexpertsystemstoalleviatethescarcityofexpertisecausedbybraindrain.

Theuseofexpertsystemsforthispurposeappearslogical,becausethesesystemshavebeensuccessfullyusedtocombatsimilarproblemsindevelopedcountries.

INTRODUCTION

Braindrain,theemigrationoftrainedprofessionalstoothercountries,isamatterofgreatconcerntodevelopingcountries.Braindrainjeopardizesacountry'seconomicdevelopmentandweakensitsabilitytoprovideessentialservicestoitscitizens.Tomakemattersworseforthesecountries,noreprieveappearstobeonthehorizonforthem.Theempirical,predictivestudiesauguronlyfurtherincreaseinratherthananydeclineofthelossofskilledmanpower.Thetraditionalsolutionsappliedtothisproblemhaveprovedgenerallyineffective,hence,underliningtheneedforinnovativeapproachestoaddressthisproblem.Thispaperadvocatesthattheuseofexpertsystems,onekindofinformationtechnology,providesaneffectivetooltominimizetheeffectsofbraindrainfromdevelopingcountries.

EFFECTSOFBRAINDRAIN

Braindraininflictsseriouseconomicandsocialhardshipsondevelopingcountries.First,itdrainsthescarcecapitalresourcesofthecountry,aswellashurtstheperformancesofthebusinessentities.Forinstance,itcreatesdependenceonforeignconsultants,whichresultsintheoutflowofalreadyscarcecapitalresources（Kiggundu,1989）.Inaddition,itforcesbusinessestopromotelessexperiencedindividuals,whomaybeunpreparedtohandletheirresponsibilities,andthushurttheoverallperformancesoftheorganizationsinnationalandinternationalmarkets（McHale,1988）.

Second,braindrainjeopardizestheessentialservicesprovidedtothecitizensofthedevelopingcountry.InthePhilippines,forexample,somehospitalwardshadtobecloseddownduetoshortageofnursingstaff（Cohen,1988）.InMexico,theemigrationofuniversityteacherstoothercountries,appearstohavecausedadeclineinthequalityofitshighereducation（Tangeman,1989,p.A45）.Inshort,braindraincausesseriouseconomicandsocialimplicationsforacountry.

Sometimes,however,theargumentisadvancedthatemigrationactuallybenefitsdevelopingcountries,becauseitaffordstheircitizenstheopportunitytoacquiredirelyneededexpertiseandskills.Thisargumentassumesthatthemajorityoftheseindividualsreturnstothehomecountryandmakesvaluablecontributionstoitsdevelopment.However,asdescribedlaterinthispaper,thisassumptionisnotborneoutbyreality.

CAUSESOFBRAINDRAIN

Thetwoprimaryreasonsbelievedtotriggerbraindrainfromdevelopingcountriesare:

（1）highercompensationwithbetteropportunitiesabroad;and

（2）politicaluncertaintyathome.Inadequatecompensationforone'sskillsinthehomecountrybecomesasourceoffrustrationtothetrainedprofessionals,whichmotivatesthemtolookabroadforemployment.Thisfrustrationiswell-spokenbyauniversityprofessorinMexico,whocomplained,"IamaPh.D.fromStanfordandIcannotaffordtobuyausedVolkswagen"（Tangeman,1989,p.A47）.Economicconsiderationsaside,whenanuncertainpoliticalenvironmentoccursinthehomecountry,thiseventalsosparksanexodusoftheprofessionaltalent.Forexample,China'splannedtakeoverofHongKongin1997scaredanumberofbusinesses,alongwithahighnumberoftrainedprofessionals,intothemovetoothercountries（McHale,1988）.

TRADITIONALSOLUTIONSTOBRAINDRAIN

Thegoalofthetraditionalapproaches,usedtoovercomethebraindrainproblem,focusesonhowtoslowdowntheemigrationoftrainedprofessionals.Typically,twomethodsareusedtoaccomplishthisgoal.Onemethodinvolvesgovernmentallegislationthatcreatesdifficultiesforprofessionalstoleavethecountry.Forinstance,inthePhilippines,legislationisunderconsiderationwhichrequiresthenursingstudentstoworkinthePhilippinesforaperiodofatleasttwoyears,beforetheywouldbeallowedtogoabroad（Cohen,1988）.Likewise,inanefforttodiscourageemigrationofitsHongKongcitizens,theChinesegovernmentannounceditsstudyofwhetherornottorecognizeforeignpassportscarriedbyHongKongnationals（Chada,1988）.

Thesecondmethodtypicallyusedtoslowdownbraindrainistoofferhighersalariesandmoreattractivefringebenefitstotheemployees.Forexample,someHongKongbusinessespayabonusofthreemonthssalarytotheircurrentemployees,aswellastoanyexpatriateswillingtoreturntoHongKong（"SteppingOvertheBorder",1989）.Likewise,TaiwanoffersitsexpatriateswhoarewillingtoreturnhomesignificantfinancialassistanceandfacilitiestostarttheirownbusinessesinTaiwan（Tanzer,1989）.Similarly,Irelandmadeheavyinvestmentsinhightechindustriesinordertoretainitsbrightandambitiouscitizens;however,itspolicyhasnotbeenveryeffective,becausetheyoungIrishstillperceiveonlylimitedopportunitiesfortheminIreland（Manasian,1988）.Apparently,onlyTaiwanhashadanysuccessinattractingitsformercitizensreturntohomeland.Othercountrieshavenothadmuchluckinthisrespect.Forinstance,Mexico'sacademicandpoliticalleadersvirtuallyconcededthattheycannotstoptheuniversitysystem'schronicbraindraintoothercountries（Tangeman,1989）.Likewise,GreekauthoritieshaveacknowledgedthattheircountryjustcannotaffordtheeconomicincentivesneededtoattractGreekexpatriatesbacktoGreece（Manasian,1988）.Thus,thetraditionalapproachestoslowdownbraindrainhavehadanextremelylimitedsuccess.

PREDICTIVEEVIDENCEONBRAINDRAINTREND

Variousstudieshaveexaminedtheprospectsofaslowdownintherateofbraindrainfromthedevelopingcountries.Theresultsofthesestudiesstronglysuggestthatprospectsofsuchslowdown,ifany,areverylimited.

Onestudy,KwokandLeland（1982）examinestheissueastowhystudentsfromdevelopingcountriesdonotreturntotheirhomecountryfromtheUSAafterreceiptoftheiradvanceddegrees.Theyarguethattheeconomicincentivesarenottheonlycauseforthisproblem.Rather,theyhypothesize,individualsofhighabilitiesarenotmotivatedtoreturnbecausetheirperceptionsremainthattheemployersintheirhomecountrymaynotfullyappreciatenorutilizetheirabilities.Theresultsofthisstudysupporttheirhypothesis.Consequently,economicconsiderations,aswellaspsychologicalones,contributetothelossofthesescarceintellectualassetsfromthedevelopingcountriesLien（1987）extendedthefindingsofKwokandLeland（1982）.Thisstudyarguesthatalthoughthehomecountryemployersmaynotfullycomprehendthequalificationsofprospectiveemployeesreturningfromabroad,usuallytherankingoftheschools,wherethecandidatesstudied,inferssuchqualificationstothem.Withthisassumption,Liendevelopedamathematicalmodelofthepossiblebehaviorofindividualswithadvanceddegrees.Theresultofthestudysuggeststhatexceptionallycapableindividualsremainunlikelytoreturntotheirhomecountries.

Insummary,thetraditionalapproachesusedtoreverseorabatebraindrainhaveprovedgenerallyineffective.Furthermore,variouspredictivestudiesdonotforeseeanydeclinewhatsoeverinthelevelofbraindrainfromdevelopingcountries.Plus,theopportunitiesforemigrationareontherise.

Consequently,theseresultscallfornew,innovativeapproachestoaddressthebraindrainproblem.

EXPERTSYSTEMSSOLUTIONTOBRAINDRAINPROBLEM

Expertsystems,akindofinformationtechnology，indeedprovidesaneffectivewaytominimizetheeffectsofbraindrainfromdevelopingcountries.However,beforeweexplorehowexpertsystemshelpinthisrespect,weneedtobrieflyreviewsuchsystems

Anexpertsystem,sometimescalledanadvisorysystem,isacomputerprogramthatmimicsthebehaviorofhumanexpertswithinsomespecificdomainofknowledge（Liebowitz,1988,p.3）.Anexpertfacedwithaproblemelicitsorderivesinformationfromvarioussourcespertainingthatproblem,andthen,basedonthatinformation,arrivesatsomedecisionconcerningthatproblem.Likewise,auser,consultinganexpertsystem,providesdataorinformationinresponsetoqueriesfromthesystem;then,basedontheinformationprovided,thesystemfurnishesanadviceorarecommendation.

Expertsystemsmaybeusedtoseekadvice,makeadecision,orsolveaproblem.Forexample,DECsalespersonneluseXSEL,anexpertsystem,torecommendasystemtocustomersbasedontheirrequirements（HicksandLee,1988）.Likewise,expertsystemshelpusersselectoneofthemanyplacestoinvestbasedontheirfinancialconditions,goals,andpersonalitytraits（Frenzel,1987）.Also,expertsystemsexisttohelpdoctorstodiagnoseillnesses,aswellastoprescribetreatments（Frenzel,1987）.Inshort,expertsystemshavebeendevelopedandareutilizedinscience,medicine,engineering,manufacturing,business,anddatapr