专家系统方法以尽量减少人才外流的影响外文翻译.docx

1、专家系统方法以尽量减少人才外流的影响外文翻译中文3460字本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译外文题目 Expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain 外文出处 IJCM 外文作者 Naveed Saleem Abbas N. Azad 原文：Expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain Naveed Saleem Abbas N. AzadBrain drain inflicts serious economic and social hard

2、ships on developing countries. Consequently, these countries resort to such measures as governmental regulations and economic incentives, which aim to slow down emigration of their skilled professionals. However, these measures prove generally ineffective.Furthermore, predictive research on brain dr

3、ain finds only further increase in, rather than any decline of, the exodus of skilled professionals from developing countries, which exacerbates the brain drain problem. This paper advocates the use of expert systems to alleviate the scarcity of expertise caused by brain drain.The use of expert syst

4、ems for this purpose appears logical, because these systems have been successfully used to combat similar problems in developed countries.INTRODUCTIONBrain drain, the emigration of trained professionals to other countries, is a matter of great concern to developing countries. Brain drain jeopardizes

5、 a countrys economic development and weakens its ability to provide essential services to its citizens. To make matters worse for these countries, no reprieve appears to be on the horizon for them. The empirical, predictive studies augur only further increase in rather than any decline of the loss o

6、f skilled manpower. The traditional solutions applied to this problem have proved generally ineffective, hence, underlining the need for innovative approaches to address this problem. This paper advocates that the use of expert systems, one kind of information technology, provides an effective tool

7、to minimize the effects of brain drain from developing countries.EFFECTS OF BRAIN DRAINBrain drain inflicts serious economic and social hardships on developing countries. First, it drains the scarce capital resources of the country, as well as hurts the performances of the business entities. For ins

8、tance, it creates dependence on foreign consultants, which results in the outflow of already scarce capital resources (Kiggundu, 1989). In addition, it forces businesses to promote less experienced individuals, who may be unprepared to handle their responsibilities, and thus hurt the overall perform

9、ances of the organizations in national and international markets (McHale, 1988).Second, brain drain jeopardizes the essential services provided to the citizens of the developing country. In the Philippines, for example, some hospital wards had to be closed down due to shortage of nursing staff (Cohe

10、n, 1988). In Mexico, the emigration of university teachers to other countries, appears to have caused a decline in the quality of its higher education (Tangeman, 1989, p. A45). In short, brain drain causes serious economic and social implications for a country.Sometimes, however, the argument is adv

11、anced that emigration actually benefits developing countries, because it affords their citizens the opportunity to acquire direly needed expertise and skills. This argument assumes that the majority of these individuals returns to the home country and makes valuable contributions to its development.

12、 However, as described later in this paper, this assumption is not borne out by reality.CAUSES OF BRAIN DRAINThe two primary reasons believed to trigger brain drain from developing countries are: (1) higher compensation with better opportunities abroad; and (2) political uncertainty at home. Inadequ

13、ate compensation for ones skills in the home country becomes a source of frustration to the trained professionals, which motivates them to look abroad for employment. This frustration is well-spoken by a university professor in Mexico, who complained, I am a Ph.D. from Stanford and I cannot afford t

14、o buy a used Volkswagen (Tangeman, 1989, p. A47). Economic considerations aside, when an uncertain political environment occurs in the home country, this event also sparks an exodus of the professional talent. For example, Chinas planned takeover of Hong Kong in 1997 scared a number of businesses, a

15、longwith a high number of trained professionals, into the move to other countries (McHale, 1988).TRADITIONAL SOLUTIONS TO BRAIN DRAINThe goal of the traditional approaches, used to overcome the brain drain problem, focuses on how to slow down the emigration of trained professionals. Typically, two m

16、ethods are used to accomplish this goal. One method involves governmental legislation that creates difficulties for professionals to leave the country. For instance, in the Philippines, legislation is under consideration which requires the nursing students to work in the Philippines for a period of

17、at least two years, before they would be allowed to go abroad (Cohen, 1988). Likewise, in an effort to discourage emigration of its Hong Kong citizens, the Chinese government announced its study of whether or not to recognize foreign passports carried by Hong Kong nationals (Chada, 1988).The second

18、method typically used to slow down brain drain is to offer higher salaries and more attractive fringe benefits to the employees. For example, some Hong Kong businesses pay a bonus of three months salary to their current employees, as well as to any expatriates willing to return to Hong Kong (Steppin

19、g Over the Border, 1989). Likewise, Taiwan offers its expatriates who are willing to return home significant financial assistance and facilities to start their own businesses in Taiwan (Tanzer, 1989). Similarly, Ireland made heavy investments in high tech industries in order to retain its bright and

20、 ambitious citizens; however, its policy has not been very effective, because the young Irish still perceive only limited opportunities for them in Ireland (Manasian, 1988). Apparently, only Taiwan has had any success in attracting its former citizens return to homeland. Other countries have not had

21、 much luck in this respect. For instance, Mexicos academic and political leaders virtually conceded that they cannot stop the university systems chronic brain drain to other countries (Tangeman, 1989). Likewise, Greek authorities have acknowledged that their country just cannot afford the economic i

22、ncentives needed to attract Greek expatriates back to Greece (Manasian, 1988). Thus, the traditional approaches to slow down brain drain have had an extremely limited success.PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON BRAIN DRAIN TRENDVarious studies have examined the prospects of a slowdown in the rate of brain drain

23、from the developing countries. The results of these studies strongly suggest that prospects of such slowdown, if any, are very limited.One study, Kwok and Leland (1982) examines the issue as to why students from developing countries do not return to their home country from the USA after receipt of t

24、heir advanced degrees. They argue that the economic incentives are not the only cause for this problem. Rather, they hypothesize, individuals of high abilities are not motivated to return because their perceptions remain that the employers in their home country may not fully appreciate nor utilize t

25、heir abilities. The results of this study support their hypothesis. Consequently, economic considerations, as well as psychological ones, contribute to the loss of these scarce intellectual assets from the developing countries Lien (1987) extended the findings of Kwok and Leland (1982). This study a

26、rgues that although the home country employers may not fully comprehend the qualifications of prospective employees returning from abroad, usually the ranking of the schools, where the candidates studied, infers such qualifications to them. With this assumption, Lien developed a mathematical model o

27、f the possible behavior of individuals with advanced degrees. The result of the study suggests that exceptionally capable individuals remain unlikely to return to their home countries.In summary, the traditional approaches used to reverse or abate brain drain have proved generally ineffective. Furth

28、ermore, various predictive studies do not foresee any decline whatsoever in the level of brain drain from developing countries. Plus, the opportunities for emigration are on the rise.Consequently, these results call for new, innovative approaches to address the brain drain problem.EXPERT SYSTEMS SOL

29、UTION TO BRAIN DRAIN PROBLEMExpert systems, a kind of information technology，indeed provides an effective way to minimize the effects of brain drain from developing countries. However, before we explore how expert systems help in this respect, we need to briefly review such systems An expert system,

30、 sometimes called an advisory system, is a computer program that mimics the behavior of human experts within some specific domain of knowledge (Liebowitz, 1988, p. 3). An expert faced with a problem elicits or derives information from various sources pertaining that problem, and then, based on that

31、information, arrives at some decision concerning that problem. Likewise, a user, consulting an expert system, provides data or information in response to queries from the system; then, based on the information provided, the system furnishes an advice or a recommendation.Expert systems may be used to

32、 seek advice, make a decision, or solve a problem. For example, DEC sales personnel use XSEL, an expert system, to recommend a system to customers based on their requirements (Hicks and Lee, 1988). Likewise, expert systems help users select one of the many places to invest based on their financial c

33、onditions, goals, and personality traits (Frenzel, 1987). Also, expert systems exist to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, as well as to prescribe treatments (Frenzel, 1987). In short, expert systems have been developed and are utilized in science, medicine, engineering, manufacturing, business, and data pr