Noble Prize Economics at First 38 years2.docx
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NoblePrizeEconomicsatFirst38years2
TheSverigesRiksbankPrizeinEconomicSciencesinMemoryofAlfredNobel1969-2007
byAssarLindbeck*
18April1999(updatedinDecember2007)
Introduction
Inconjunctionwithitstercentenarycelebrationsin1968,SverigesRiksbank(thecentralbankofSweden)institutedanewaward,"TheSverigesRiksbankPrizeinEconomicSciencesinMemoryofAlfredNobel"onthebasisofaneconomiccommitmentbythebankinperpetuity.TheawardisgivenbytheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesaccordingtothesameprinciplesasfortheNobelPrizesthathavebeenawardedsince1901.
TheproceduresforselectingtheLaureatesarealsothesame.EachyeartheAcademyreceivessome200-300nominations,usuallycoveringalittlemorethanonehundrednominees.(Unsolicitedsuggestionsfrompersonswhohavenotbeenaskedtosubmitnominationsarenotconsidered.)TheEconomicsPrizeSelectionCommitteeoftheAcademy(withfivetoeightmembers)commissionsexpertstudiesofthemostprominentcandidates,sometimesbySwedishexpertsbutusuallybyforeigners.ThePrizeCommitteepresentsitsawardproposaltotheSocialScienceClassoftheAcademy(ClassIX)intheformofareport,withanextensivesurveyofthemaincandidatesthatareconsideredforaPrize.Thereportmotivatestheproposalandincludesallthesolicitedexpertstudies.OnthebasisofthismaterialtheclasssuggestsaLaureate(orasharedPrizebetweentwoor,atmost,threeLaureates)regularlyfollowingthecommittee'sproposal.FinallytheentireAcademymeetstotakethefinalawarddecision,usuallyinOctober.
Whatcriteriahaveguidedtheawardssofar?
AndwhathavebeenthemainproblemswhenselectingtheLaureates?
Itisusefultostartadiscussionoftheseissueswitharoughclassificationofthevarioustypesofeconomicsprizeawardsgivensofar.Itshouldbekeptinmind,however,thatallsuchclassificationsareratherarbitrarysincethemultidimensionalnatureofscientificcontributionsmakesitdifficultinavoidoverlaps.
AClassificationofPrizesfortheFirst38years
GeneralEquilibriumTheory
PaulSamuelson(1970)forhaving"developedstaticanddynamiceconomictheory;"
ObviousexamplesofthistypeofawardarethePrizestoPaulSamuelson(1970)forhaving"developedstaticanddynamiceconomictheory;"toKennethArrowandJohnHicks(1972)for"theirpioneeringcontributionstogeneraleconomicequilibriumtheoryandwelfaretheory;"toGerardDebreu(1983)for"hisrigorousreformulationofthetheoryofgeneralequilibrium;"andtoMauriceAllais(1988)"forhispioneeringcontributionstothetheoryofmarketsandefficientutilizationofresources."(Seethetablefromalinkattheendofthearticleforanattempttoclassifytheawardsintovariousfieldsofresearch.)
Contributionsinthiscategoryhavedealtlargelywiththeanalyticalstructuresoftheoreticaleconomicmodels,oftenhighlightingtheformalsimilarityofthesestructures,andclarifyingtheconditionsforconsistency,equilibrium,stabilityandefficiencyoftheeconomicsystem.Often,thesecontributionsalsohaveincludedimportantcomparativestaticexperiments,i.e.,analysesofhowequilibriumpositionschangeinresponsetochangesinvariousexogenousfactors(parameters).
Itislargelyduetotheabove-mentionedtheoriststhatgeneralequilibriumtheoryhasbecomethebasicapproachintheoreticaleconomicanalysis.Forinstance,Hicksformulatedconditionsformultimarketstability,andextendedtheapplicabilityofthestaticmethodofanalysistoseveralperiods.Healsoinitiatedrigorousdynamicanalysisofcapitalaccumulation.Becauseitwasdeeplyanchoredinmicroeconomictheoriesofthebehaviorofindividualconsumersandfirms,themodelsdevelopedbyHicksofferedfarbetterwaystostudytheconsequencesofchangesinvariousparametersthandidearliergeneralequilibriummodels(suchasLéonWalras'generalequilibriumsystemofequations).Hicksalsopresentedacelebratedaggregategeneralequilibriummodelwithfourmarkets-commodities,labor,creditandmoney-theso-calledIS-LMmodel.
Samuelson'sworkwasnotonlyacontinuationofthecontributionsbyHicks;italsorepresentedadiscontinuity,i.e.,abreak-through,intermsofanalyticalsophistication.ThisisrecognizedinthePrizecitation,whichdeclaresthatSamuelson"activelycontributedtoraisingthelevelofanalysisineconomicscience".Itishardlyanexaggerationtosaythathesingle-handedlyrewroteconsiderablepartsofcentraleconomictheory:
microeconomictheory,staticanddynamic,partialandgeneralequilibriumtheory,aswellaswelfare-economics.Byextractinginterestinginferencesfromsimplemathematicallyformulatedmodels,exploitingeffectivelythesecond-orderconditionsofmaximizationprocedures,hederivedresultswhichstilltodayrankamongtheclassicaltheoremsofeconomics.
Arrow'sandDebreu'smaincontributionstogeneralequilibriumtheoryweretoachievegreatergeneralitybyapplyingmorepowerfulmathematicalmethods,suchasthetheoryofconvexsets.Thegeneralityallowedthemtodefinetheconceptofagoodsobroadlythatthesametheorymaybeusednotonlyinstaticequilibriumanalysisbutalsoinanalysisofthespatialdistributionofproductionandconsumptionactivities,intertemporalanalysisandtheanalysisofdecision-makingunderuncertainty.Arrowalsohighlightedthedifficultiesofderivingsocialwelfarefunctionsfromindividualpreferences–Arrow'ssocalled"impossibilitytheorem".
MauriceAllais'contributions,madelargelyinthe1940s,havegreatsimilaritiesbothwithPaulSamuelson's(contemporaneous)workandArrow'sandDebreu's(later)contributions.AspecialfeatureofAllais'workisthathedescribestheeconomy'spathtoequilibriumasaprocessbywhichcompetitionremovesall"surpluses"infirms.Allais'analysisalsocoversthecasewherereturnstoscaleinproductiongiverisetonaturalmonopolies.HiscontributionstherebylaidthefoundationforaschoolofPost-WarFrencheconomistswhoanalyzedtheconditionsforanefficientuseofresourcesinlargepublicmonopolies(suchasElectricitédeFranceandSNCF,thestaterailwaysystem,).Allaisalsoanticipatedpartsofthemoderntheoryofeconomicgrowth.
Macroeconomics
Numerouspriceshasbeengiventomacroeconomics,i.e.,thatbranchofeconomicanalysisthatexplainsthebehaviorofthenationaleconomyasawholeintermsofanumberofbroadaggregates,suchasprivateconsumption,investment,exports,imports,governmentspendingofgoodsandservices,etc.Someoftheawardedcontributionsinthisfieldconcernsectors("submodels")ofnationaleconomies,whileothersdealwithanentirenationaleconomy.
Anawardinmacroeconomicsthatrefersbothtospecialsectorsandtotheentirenationaleconomyisthe1976PrizetoMiltonFriedman.ThePrizecitationreferredtohiscontributionsto"consumptionanalysis,monetaryhistoryandtheory."MiltonFriedman'sbookATheoryoftheConsumptionFunctionin1957isasuccessfulattempttocombineformaltheoryanditsempiricalapplicationforaspecificsectoroftheeconomy.HisextensiveempiricalstudyofthemonetaryhistoryoftheUnitedStates(togetherwithAnnaSchwartz)mayberegardedasanexampleofrather"pure"empiricalresearch,eventhoughthestudyclearlywasbasedonatheoreticalframeworkemphasizingamonetaryinterpretationofmacroeconomicfluctuations.
FrancoModigliani(awardedin1985)developedtwoimportantbuildingblocksinmacroeconomicmodels,namelysubmodelsofprivateconsumptionandthefinancialsector.Inparticular,inhislife-cycletheoryofsavingModiglianistudiedtheconsequencesforhouseholdsavingofchangesindemographyandeconomicgrowth.TogetherwithMertonMillerhealsolaidthefoundationforthefield"corporatefinance".TheModigliani-Millertheoremstatestheconditionsunderwhichthevalueofafirminthestockmarketisinfluenced(ornotinfluenced)bythedividendpolicyofthefirm,andthewaythefirmfinancesitsinvestment,e.g.,viaequitycapitalorborrowing.
ThePrizetoJamesTobin(1981)isanotherexampleofanawardfortheoreticalcontributionsconcerningspecificsectorsofanationaleconomy-theawardbeinggivenforhisanalysisof"financialmarketsandtheirrelationtoexpendituredecisions,employment,productionandprices."Tobin'swayofmodelinginteractionsbetweenfinancialandrealsectorsquicklybecameanintegratedpartofmacroeconomicmodelsfornationaleconomies,withanimportantroleplayedbytherelationbetweenthemarketvalueofacapitalassetanditsreproductioncosts–theso-called"Tobin'sq".Addingthestockofrealassets-land,buildings,inventoriesandclaimsonrawmaterials-Tobin'sportfoliomodelalsobecomesthenaturalanalyticaltoolwithwhichtoanalyzedirecteffectsonproductpricesofchangesinthesupplyofmoney.
ThesharedPrizetoJamesMeadeandBertilOhlin(1977)fortheircontributionto"thetheoryofinternationaltradeandinternationalcapitalmovement"isanotherexampleofacontributionconcerningaspecificsectorofanationaleconomy:
thesectorofforeigntransactions.InthecaseofOhlin,theawardreferredtohisdevelopmentofatheoryofinternationalandinterregionaltrade,designedtoexplainboththecausesandtheconsequencesoftrade–knownastheHeckscher-Ohlinmodel.Ohlinshowedthatthetradepatternsofindividualcountriesdependontheirproportionsofavailablefactorsofproduction(capitalandlabor),andthatinternationaltradetendstoequalizethereturnstothesefactorsamongcountries.JamesMeadeanalyzedtradepolicyinaworldwithvariousmarketdistortions,henceanticipatingthetheoryof