外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议.docx

外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议.docx

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外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议

中文3310字

原文:

AnanalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismindustryinBrazil：

challengesandrecommendations

出处：

InternationalJournalofContemporaryHospitalityManagement

作者：

FilipeSobral,AlketaPeci,GustavoSouza

Abstract

Purpose–ThemainpurposeofthisstudyistopresentananalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismmarketinSouthAmericaand,morespecifically,inBrazil,bymeasuringandanalyzingthegrowthintourists’arrivalstotheregionbetween1998and2002.

Design/methodology/approach–Thisstudyusestheshift-sharetechniquethatdecomposesthegrowthofthenumberoftouristsintovariouscomponents,enablingin-depthdiagnosisofthedynamicsofthesectorintheperiod.

Findings–DespitethefactthatBrazilistheleadingtouristdestinationinSouthAmerica,thestudyshowsthatBrazilhasbeenlosinggroundinrelationtosomeofitsneighborsinSouthAmerica.Thestudyalsorevealedtheimpactof9/11andArgentina’scrisesandthegrowingparticipationoftheEuropeantouristinBrazil.

Originality/value–Despitesomelimitations,thistechniquehastheadvantageoffocusingonaregionscarcelystudiedinmainstreamtourismresearchesandofferingBrazilianpolicy-makersanewmethodologysuchthattheymaytakeadvantageofemergingopportunitiesandcreatecompetitiveadvantagesforthecountry.

Keywords:

Tourism,Publicpolicy,Brazil,SouthAmerica

Introduction

Tourismisasectorexperiencingmajorgrowthintermsoftheglobaleconomy.Eversincethe1950swheninternationaltravelbecameaccessibletothepublicingeneral,thenumberoftouristshasbeengrowingatanaveragerateof6.8percentperyear.Estimatesarethatin2005thenumberofincomingtouriststotaled808million.Thetrendsforthefutureofthetourismindustryindicatethatby2020thenumberofincominginternationaltouristswillbeintheorderof1.6billion（WorldTourismOrganization,2006）.AccordingtoWorldTravelandTourismCouncilitisexpectedthatthetourismwillcontribute3.6percenttoglobalGDPin2006（WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006）.

Inviewoftheimportanceofthetourismsector,thisstudyseekstocontributewithanotherpotentiallyusefultechnicalanalysistoolforevaluatingthesector.TheobjectiveistoprovidepolicymakersinBrazilwithasystematicapproachtowardsmanagingtheirtourismeffortsandactivities.Thearticleconcludeswithaseriesofrecommendationsforpublicpoliciesintheareaoftourismbasedonthediscussionofresultsofthemodelintegratedwiththeresultsofotherstudiesandresearch.

ThetourismindustryinSouthAmerica

Intermsofeconomicimpact,tourismisarecentphenomenoninSouthAmerica.Withtheexceptionofthe1960-1970decade,thegrowthoftourismontheAmericancontinent（North,CentralandSouthAmerica）wasalwaysbelowtheworldaverage（WorldTourismOrganization,2005）.Factorssuchasthegreatdistancefromthemajortourist-generatingmarkets,thetimidityoftheregionaleconomies,aswellastheprolongedeconomicrecessions,hadanegativeimpactonthedevelopmentofregionalandintra-regionaltourism（Santana,2000）.

Onlyinthe1990sSouthAmericaemergedasapotentialtourismdestination,withBrazil,ArgentinaandChileasthemainplayersintheregion.Factorslikethetransitiontodemocracy,theconsolidationofeconomicblocks,thegrowthofcommercewiththemajorworldmarketsandtheimprovementofbasicpublicservices,contributedpositivelytothedevelopmentoftourismintheregion.Inconjunctionwiththistheopeningupofthemarketsandmassiveinvestmentsininfrastructurefacilitatedtheflowoftourismtotraditionalandnon-traditionaldestinationsinSouthAmerica（Gouveˆa,2004;Santana,2000）.

EventhoughthegrowthintheAmericashasfollowedtheworldwidetrend,tourismhasanunrealizedgrowthpotentialinthemajorityofSouthAmericancountries.Onlyrecentlysomecountrieshaveadoptedtourismasastrategicalternative.InaccordancewithprojectionsoftheWorldTravelandTourismCouncil（WTTC）for2006,itisexpectedthatUS$163,362billionwillbegeneratedineconomicactivity（totaldemand）bythetourismindustry.Animpactof7.2percentontheGDPofLatinAmericancountriesisexpected,aswellasthegenerationof12.1millionjobs,namely6.9percentofthetotal（WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006）.

ThetourismindustryinBrazil

WithrespecttoBrazil,itispossibletoaffirmthattourismisarelativelyimportanteconomicactivity,withgreatfuturegrowthpotential.ThecontributiontoGDPofthetourismindustryinBrazilisestimatedat2.8percentfor2006（US$25.3billion）,increasinginnominaltermstoUS$36billion（2.7percentofGDP）by2016（WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006）.TheimportanceofthetourismsectorinBrazilbecomesmoreapparentwhenoneevaluatesitssocialimpact,especiallyingeneratingjobs.EstimatesoftheMinistryofLaborandEmploymentrevealthatoverthe2003/2005three-yearperiod,theeconomicactivityoftourismgenerated560,000newjobs（Embratur,2006）.For2006,estimatesofthetotalnumberofjobpositionsgeneratedbythetourismindustryare5.5million,inotherwords6.4percentofthejobtotal.By2016,thetotalshouldreachapproximately9millionjobpositions,correspondingto6.6percentofthetotal（WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006）.

DespitethefactthatBrazilisthelargestLatinAmericancountrywithincomparableculturalandecologicalexuberanceanddiversity,boththepublicandprivatesectorshaveunderestimatedtourism.TheanalysisofhistoricaldataontourisminBrazilshowsthatitwasonlyinthemiddleofthe1990sthatthetourismindustryreallytookoff.Theyear2000sawthehighestnumbereverrecordedintermsoftouristarrivalsinthecountrywith5.3millioninternationalarrivals.

ForBrazil,Argentinaisthemainsourceofincomingtouristswith922,484tourists,followedbytheUSA（705,997）,Portugal（336,988）,Uruguay（309,732）,Germany（294,989）,Italy（276,563）andFrance（224,160）（Embratur,2005a,b）.DuetotheeconomiccrisisthatArgentinasufferedin2002,itsparticipationintheinfluxoftouriststoBrazilfellfrom32.8percentin2000to19.24percentin2004.However,thecountryisstillintopplaceamongthemaintouristgroupingsenteringBrazil.Withrespecttotheaverageexpensepercapita/day,theaveragespendingbyinternationaltouristswasUS$87.99andtheaveragelengthofstaywas13.5days（Embratur,2005a,b）.

ResearchconductedintotheimageofthecountryabroadconfirmsthefactthattheattractionofBrazilasatouristdestinationisbasedonitsnaturalbeautyandexoticism,thoughthenegativeperceptionsregardingsocialandeconomicconditionsofthecountry,aswellasthelackofsecurity,coexistwiththispositiveimage.However,researchindicatedthattherespondentsdonothaveagoodperceptionregardingthesocialandeconomicconditionsofthecountryand,furthermore,areworriedaboutsecurityissueswhenvisitingthecountry（Rezende-Parkeretal.,2003）.

Thestudy

Thisstudyusesaversionoftheshift-sharetechnique,developedbyEsteban-Marquillas（1972）,toexaminethecharacteristicsanddynamicsofthetourismindustryinSouthAmerica.ThepurposeistomeasureandanalyzethegrowthintouristsarrivalstoSouthAmerica（Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Paraguay,Peru,UruguayeVenezuela）fromthreedifferentregionsoftheworld（Europe,AmericasandresidualregionwhichincludesAsia,Africa,theMiddleEastandSouthPacificcountries）between1998and2002.Theshift-sharetechniquedecomposesthegrowthofthenumberoftouristsintovariouscomponentsthatcanexplainitsbehavior,enablingin-depthdiagnosisofthedynamicsofthesectorintheperiod.

TheselectedcountriesinSouthAmericawerechosentocomposethebenchmarkbecausetheysharesomesignificantsimilaritiesintermsofpotentialattractivenessandimage.Thus,eachcountry’sperformancecanbecomparedtothecollectiveperformanceofthebenchmark.ThedatafortouristarrivalsarecompiledfromtheStatisticalYearbook,publishedbytheStatisticalDivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicalandSocialAffairs（UnitedNations,2005）.

Results

Themainresultsofthestudyarethefollowing:

BrazilisthecountrythatreceivesthehighestnumberofinternationaltouristsinSouthAmerica（over30percent）,followedbyArgentina（approximately20percent）,Uruguay（11percent）andChile（11percent）.

Asforthetourist-generatingcountriestoSouthAmerica,theAmericas（over70percent）andEurope（23percent）continuetobetheleadingtouristexporters.

Between1998and2002therewasamarkedreductioninthenumberofinternationaltourists,representingadropofover18percentinthenumberoftouristarrivalstoSouthAmerica,mainlybecausethe9/11andthepoliticalandeconomicinstabilityofsomeofthecountriesintheregion,especiallyArgentina,ColombiaandVenezuela.

DespitetheglobaldecreaseofincomingtouriststoSouthAmerica,thenumberofEuropeantouristsincreasedduringtheperiodunderconsideration（5percent）.

WithrespecttoBrazil,itsglobalperformancefellwellbelowexpectationsanditlostmarketshare,losingmorethana1milliontourists（221.5percent）.

TheforegoinganalysismadeitclearthatthisreductionwasduetoaweakperformanceintheAmericas,whichwaspartlyoffsetbyagoodperformancefromEurope.

TheresultsindicatethatthenumberofEuropeantouristsvisitingBrazilincreasedby235,503（anincreaseofmorethan20percent）.Accordingtotheanalysis,BrazilenjoysacompetitiveadvantageinattractingEuropeantouristanditisspecializedinthisregi