居民消费方式对二氧化碳的要求外文翻译.docx

居民消费方式对二氧化碳的要求外文翻译.docx

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居民消费方式对二氧化碳的要求外文翻译

原文：

EffectsofHouseholdConsumptionPatternsonCO2Requirements

Abstract

InordertoevaluatetherelationbetweentheconsumptionpatternofvarioushouseholdtypesandtheirCO2requirements,wecombineinput-outputtablesenergyflowmatrices,CO2emissionsfactors,andnationalconsumersurveystatisticsintoanintegratedmodellingframework,andrelatedifferencesinhouseholdtypestodifferencesinprivateconsumptionandagaintodifferencesinCO2emissions.WeidentifyhouseholdcharacteristicswithasignifcantinfluenceonCO2emissions.ComparingourresultswiththoseofotherstudiesrevealsthatnationaldifferencesinclimateandpopulationdensitycausedifferencesinthecontributiontoCO2emissions.Finally,nationaldifferencesinincomeandexpenditureelasticitiesofbothenergyandCO2areduetodifferencesinthedisparityinCO2intensitiesamongstcommoditiesandtothemodel’sassumptionsonforeigntechnology.

Keywords:

CO2emissions,consumptionpattern,householdcharacteristics

1.Introduction

Inthisstudy,wewillevaluatetheimportanceofhouseholdconsumptionpatternonCO2requirements.Weconsidervarioushouseholdtypes,characterizedbyanumberofsocio-demographicvariables,andexaminetheirconsumptionpatternsandassociatedCO2emissions.WetakeintoaccountdirectCO2requirements（emissionsfromfuelsconsumeddirectlyinhouseholds）andindirectCO2requirements（emissionsincurredduringtheproductionofconsumergoods）.Theaimofourworkistoidentifythemostimportantfactorsin¯uencinghouseholdCO2emissions,andtocompareourresultswiththosefoundforothercountries.

Ourstudyisinspiredbytwodivergingmethodologicaltraditions.Duringthe

pastdecade,therehasbeenanincreasingfocusontheimportanceoflifestyleforthesustainabledevelopmentofhouseholdconsumption.Themainpartofthesestudiesconcentratesonsocio-culturalfactorsfromasociologicalperspective,andstressestheimportanceofissuessuchasattitudes,values,theindividual’sneedforexpressingidentitythroughconsumptionofgoods（e.g.Giddens,1990;Maþesoli,1991;Beck,1992）.Thereisalongtraditionofclassifyingconsumersegmentsaccordingtotheirvalues,lifestyleandtheirtypicalsocio-demographiccharacteristics（Gunter&Furnham,1992）.Hence,socio-demographicvariablesmaybethekeytoclassifyingvarioushouseholdtypes,diþeringintheirconsumptionpatternandthusintheirdirectandindirectCO2emissions.

Simultaneously,anumberofstudiesemergedthatfocusonthedemandforenergyfromaneconomicpointofview.Thesestudiesapplyquantitativemodelsinordertoexplainchangesinconsumptionpatternswithchangesinincomeandrelativeprices,oftensupplementedbytechnicalinformationonelectricalhouseholdequipment,improvementsinthermalperformanceofhousing,orenergyproductiontechnology（seeMadlener,1996,orthereviewinMoroney,1997）.

Theeconomicandthesociologicalapproachsupplementeachother,buthave

sofarbene®tedlittlefromeachother.Recently,however,severalstudieshaveattemptedtolinkhouseholdconsumptionchoicesbyusinginput-outputmodellingandenergyand/oremissionowanalysisinoneintegratedmodellingframework,seeWier（1998）,MukhopadhyayandChakraborty（1999）,Wiltingetal.（1999）,Jacobsen（2000）,Munksgaardetal.（2000a,2000b）,andLenzen（2001）.Somestudiesgoevenfurtherandincludeinformationonhouseholdcharacteristics.Forexample,thelevelofeducation,thenumberofchildren,urbanityandsocioeconomicstatushavebeenincludedintheanalysisandutilizedasexplanatory

variablesinquantitativemodelling（forthemostrecentstudies,seeWeber&Fahl,

1993;Vringer&Blok,1995;Duchin,1998;Lenzen,1998;Biesiot&Noorman,

1999;Weber&Perrels,2000）.Thesestudiesdonotonlyconsiderresidentialenergy

consumptionandderivedemissions,butalsoenergyandemissionsembodiedincommoditiesotherthanenergy.

Inthepresentstudy,wecombineseveraldatasourcesandapplytheminanintegratedmodellingframeworkfollowingthetraditionofthestudiesdescribedabove.ThistypeofanalysishasnotbeencarriedoutforDanishdatabefore,andthestudybenefittsfromrecentanddetaileddataonproductionsectors,commodities,energytypesandhouseholdcharacteristics.WeconsideronlyCO2emissionsfromenergy,sincetheseconstitutethemajority（76%）oftotalDanishgreenhousegasemissions（NationalEnvironmentalResearchInstitute,2000）.However,theanalysismayeasilybeextendedtoothertypesofgasesandemissionsources.

2.Methods

ThemodelrelevantforouranalysisisanextensionofthemodelusedbyMunksgaardetal.（2000a,2000b）.Incontrasttothatstudy,however,wedonotfocusonCO2emissionsassociatedwiththeDanishprivateconsumptionatanationallevel,butonCO2emissionsatasingle-householdlevel,thatis,themodelisappliedtovarioushouseholdtypes,makingitpossibletoexploretheimportanceofvarioushouseholdcharacteristicsonCO2emissions.

AsinMunksgaardetal.（2000a,2000b）,wedistinguishbetweendirectandindirectemissions.Directemissionsareassociatedwiththeconsumptionofenergycommodities,i.e.electricity,gas,oil,gasolineandotherheating.Indirectemissionsareassociatedwiththeproductionofallothercommodities（suchasfurniture,clothes,foods,services）,i.e.emissionsthatoccurintheindustryproducingtheseCommodities.

2.1.DirectCO2Emissions

2.2.IndirectCO2Emissions

2.3.ConsumerUnits

2.4.IncomeandExpenditureCorrelationAnalysis

2.5.AnalysisofHouseholdSize

3.Data

Alldatausedinthisstudyarecompatible,astheyapplyanidenticalclassicationofgoodsandactivities,makingitpossibletoutilizethedatainanintegratedmodel.Thedatausedforthepresentanalysisarethefollowing.

·Danishinput-outputtablesfortheyear1995fromStatisticsDenmark（tablesdocumentedinStatisticsDenmark,1986）.Thesetablescomprise130productionsectorsandninecategoriesofdemand.Oneofthelatterisprivateconsumption,whichisdividedinto72components,offveofwhicharedirectenergyconsumptionbyhouseholds.

·Energyowmatricesfortheyear1995fromStatisticsDenmarkcontainingenergyconsumptionforthe130productionsectorsaswellas.

·CO2emissionfactorsforthe37primaryfuelsarepartoftheEuropeanCORINAIRdatabase（Fenhannetal.,1997）.ThefactorsarecalculatedonThebasisofthecarboncontentofthefuels.Emissionfactorsfortheenergytypes（electricity,districtheatingandgas）havepreviouslybeencalculatedfromtheprimaryemissionfactorsandtheenergyinputstotheenergyproductionsector（Munksgaardetal.,1998）.Finally,CO2emissionfactorsforrenewableenergytypesareconsideredtobezero,asitisassumedthatCO2emissionsfrom,forexample,strawandwoodareabsorbedinnewbio-massproduction.

·TheconsumersurveyfromStatisticsDenmark（StatisticsDenmark,1999）.

Thesurveycomprisestheconsumptionof1334commoditiesof3438representativelyselectedhouseholds.These1334commoditiesareaggregatedtothe72commoditiesoftheinput-outputtables.Thelatestsurveyisbasedondatafrom1995-97.Thehouseholds’characteristicsthatareregisteredarevariouseconomic,nancialanddemographiccharacteristics,e.g.numberandageofchildren,numberofadults,ageofmainincomeprovider,typeofaccommodation,urbanity,socio-economicstatusandeducationofmainincomeprovider,andtypeandlevelofdisposablehouseholdincomeandexpenditure.390familytypescanbedistinguished.Dataarecollectedthroughregistrationofhouseholdpurchasesonadailybasis,supplementedbypersonalinterviewsandinformationfromtheregistrars.Therespondentrateis68.5%.

Asastepinthecalculationprocedure,thedataareadjustedfortheproportionofnon-respondents,inordertogiveeachhouseholdtypetheappropriateweight.

4.Results

CommodityCO2Intensity，TheImportanceofHouseholdCharacteristics，CO2RequirementforSelectedHouseholdCharacteristics。

DirectCO2requirement.Furthermore,showsthaturbanfamilieslivingin¯atshavethelowestdirectCO2emissions.Inparticular,lowincomeurbanfamilieshavedirectCO2emissionsthatareapproximately3tCO2/consumerunit/year（morethan50%）belowtheaverageofallDanishfamilies.Incontrast,ruralfamilies,especiallyhighincomefamilies,havethehighestdirectCO2emissionsuptomorethan10tCO2/consumerunit/year（or78%）abovetheaverageofallDanishfamilies.Familieslivinginsingle-familyhousesinurbanareashaveloweremissionsthansimilarfamiliesinruralareas.Theageofthemainincomecontributorseemstohaveminorimportancecomparedwiththetypeofaccommodationandthedisposablehouseholdincome.

IndirectCO2requirement.IndirectCO2emissionsincreasewithdisposablehouseholdincome.Theytypeofaccommodation,ageandurbanityseemtobeof

verylittleimportance.Highincomefamiliesshow,inmostcases,indirectCO2

emissionsofmorethan7tCO2/consumerunit/year（ormorethan40%）abovetheaverageofallfamilies.

HouseholdCO2intensity.TheCO2intensitytellsushowmuchCO2is

emittedperunitofhouseholdconsumptionforeachfamilytype.Table3showsthatthedirectCO2intensitylargelyfollowsthepatternofdirectCO2emissions,i.e.urbanfamilieslivingin¯atshavethelowestdirectCO2intensitywithineachincomebracket.However,theCO2intensitydecreaseswithincome,whichisduetothesaturationintheenergyconsumptionwithincreasingincome.Incontrast,theindirectCO2intensityvarieslittlewithfamilytype,andisnotdecreasingwithdisposablehouseholdincome.Thus,in