绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译.docx
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绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译
外文文献翻译原文及译文
文献出处:
PackDamon.TheresearchofgreennewenergyveluclesfJ].JournalofCleanerProduction,2017,1(6):
17-26.
原文
Theresearchofsreennewenergyvehicles
PackDamon
1.Introduction
Provisionofenvironmentallysustainable(orgreen)privatetransportthroughouttheworldfacestwomainchallenges.Thefirstisurbanandevenregionalairpollution,particularlyintherapidlygrowingcitiesoftheindustrializingworld.Thesecondisglobalclimatechange,causedmainlybyrisingconcentrationsofgreenhousegases(GHGs)intheatmosphere.Thesetwobarrierstogreencarmobilitydifferinseveralimportantways.First,roadtrafficairpollutionproblemsaremorelocalized,becauseoftheshortatmosphericlifetimesofmostvehiclepollutantsand•Thusregionalsolutionsareoftennotonlypossible,butalsoessential-Australiancities,forexample,can(andmust)solvetheirairpollutionproblemsthemselves-Mattersareverydifferentforglobalclimatechange.Exceptpossiblyforgeo-engineeringmeasuressuchasplacinglargequantitiesofsulphateaerosolsinthelowerstratosphereorerectinghugereflectingmirrorsinspace,onecountrycannotsolvethisproblemalone.Climatechangeisaglobalproblem.Nevertheless,itispossibleforsomecountriesto‘freeload’ifthemajorityofnationsthatareimportantGHGemitter.
Second,thereisagreementthatairpollution,especiallyinurbanareas,ispotentiallyaserioushealthhazard,andthatroadtransportcancontributegreatlytourbanpollutantlevel•Forthesereasons,governmentsinmanycountriesarealreadytakingeffectiveactiononairpollution.Butuntilrecently,climatechangewasnotrecognizedasamajorproblembysomekeypolicymakers,andallcountrieshaveyettotakeeffectiveactiononreducingemissions.
Third,vehicularairpollutantproblems,atleastintheOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)countries,arealreadyshowingthemselvesamenabletovarioustechnicalsolutions,suchaslow-sulphurfuels,unleadedpetrol,andthree-waycatalyticconverters.Someresearchershavearguedexplicitlythatglobaltransportemissionscanbereducedtoverylowlevelswithacombinationoftwokeytechnicalsolutions-largeimprovementsinvehiclefuelefficiencyandaswitchtoalternativetransportfuels,suchasliquiabiofuelsandhydrogenderivedfromrenewableenergy.Amuchlargergroupimplicitlysupportthispositionbyprojectinglargefutureincreasesincarnumbersandtravelandevenagloballyinterconnectedhighwaysystem.
Further,governmentsthroughouttheworldhaveendorsedthe
UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(whichcameintoeffectin1994),butatthesametimeareexpandingtheirroadnetworks,encouragingtheircarindustry,andplanningforfuturecartrafficexpansion.Overall,themajorityofbothresearchersandpolicymakersappeartoconsiderthatclimatechangeposesnothreattoglobalcarmobility.Nevertheless,otherresearchersargueingeneralthattechnologycannotsolvetheseriousenvironment/resourceproblemstheworldfacesglobalwarminginparticular.Also,theauthorsthemselveshaveearlierquestionedwhetherthecurrentglobaltransportsystemcancontinueonitspresentcourse.Thispaperattemptstoresolvethesecompetingclaims.
Transport,ofcourse,isnottheonlysourceofeitherairpollutionorglobalclimatechange.Allenergy-usingsectors,andevenland-usechanges,cancontributetothesetwoproblems.Itisthusimportantthatanyattemptstoreducetransport^emissionsdonotcompromisesimilareffortsinothersectorsoftheeconomy.Itisalsopossiblethatemissionreductionpoliciesinonecountrycouldadverselyaffectreductioneffortselsewhere.
Theaimofthispaperistoshowthatprivatecartravelcannotformthebasisforasustainableglobalsystemofsurfacepassengertravel.Tosimplifytheanalysis,onlyGHGemissionswillbeanalysed.Wearguethattheriskofglobalclimatechangerequireseffectivereductionsinthenexttwodecadesorso,whereastechnicalsolutionstodrasticallycutcartraveFsgreenhousegasemissionsareonlypossibleinamuchlongertimeframe,and,insomecases,possiblynoteventhen.Overall,theworldwillhavetorelyonalternativemodes(variousformsofpublictransport,walkingandcycling),and,formuchoftheindustrialisedworld,much-reducedlevelsofpersonaltravelaswell.Ofcourse,itisquitepossiblethatthelimitedtimeframeavailableisalsomuchtooshortfortravelreductionsandmodalshiftsofthemagnitudeproposedhere.Theconclusionsofthispaperhaverelevanceforfreightandairtransport,andalsoforothersectorsoftheeconomyfacedwiththeneedfordeepcutsinGHGemissions.
2.Globalclimatechangeandglobalcartravel
Thevastmajorityofclimatescientistssupporttheviewthatemissionsofheat-trappinggasesintotheatmosphere,particularlyC02,fromfossilfuelcombustionandland-usechanges,causeglobalwarmingbyalteringtheearth'sradiationbalance.The2007reportfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)statesthatsealevelsarerising,glaciersandseaicecoverarediminishing,and11ofthe12warmestyearssince1850haveoccurredinthe1995-2006period.Theirlatestestimate(withaprobabilityof66%orgreater)forclimatesensitivity-theequilibriumincreaseinglobaltemperatureresultingfromadoublingofC02intheatmosphere-isfrom2.0°Cto4.5°C,withabestestimateof3-0°C.AtmosphericC02concentrationsarecurrentlyrisingbysometwopartspermillion(ppm)annually.
Moreover,largepositivefeedbackeffectscouldresultinemissions,andthustemperatures,risingmuchmorerapidlythanexpectedonthebasisofpresentfuelandland-useemissionreleases.Onesuchfeedbackislarge-scalemethanereleasefromnortherntundraaspermafrostmelts.Thereissomepreliminaryevidencethatthisprocessisalreadyunderwayand.Further,studiesofpastclimatehaveshownthatabruptclimaticchangecanoccuroverthecourseofadecadeorevenafewyearsand•JamesHansen,aprominentUSclimatescientist,hasarguedonthebasisofpaleoclimaticdatathatiffurtherglobalwarmingisnotlimitedto1°Cbeyondtheyear2000value,feedbackscouldaddtobusiness-as-usualemissions,makingtheworlda‘differentplanet’.His1°Criseabovetheyear2000figureisonlyslightlybelowtheEUvalueof2°Cabovethepre-industrialvalue,giventheestimated0.74°Cwarmingthathasoccurredsince1880.HeconcludesthatwecanonlycontinuepresenttrendsforGHGemissionsforanotherdecadeorsobeforecommittingtheclimatetoirreversiblechange.Here,wetakeapositionintermediatebetweendenElzenandMeinshausenandHansen,andassumethatby2030globalemissionsofbothC02andotherGHGsmustbereducedto25%theircurrentvalue-afour-foldreductionincurrentglobalemissions.
Thus,tolimitdangerousclimaticchange,annualemissionstotheatmosphereofC02andothergreenhousegaseswillneedtobegreatlycurtailed,unlessgeo-engineeringorcarbonsequestrationtechniquescanbesuccessfullydeployedintime.Equalemissionspercapitaforallcountries,asadvocatedby‘contractionandconvergence’proponents,arelikelytobetheonlyacceptableproposal,sinceitisimprobablethatindustrialisingcountriessuchasChinaorIndiawillpermanentlyacceptlowerpercapitaemissionsthanthealreadyindustrialisedcountries.Theycouldgofurther,anddemandparityincumulativepercapitaemissionsoverthepastcenturyforC02,along-livedgas.Suchanapproachwouldrequirethealreadyindustrialisedcountriestoreduceemissionstonearzero.In2003,globalC02emissionsfromfossilfuelsaveraged4.2t/capita,butvariedwidelyfromcountrytocountry.TheUS,AustralianandJapaneseemissionswere,respectively,4.8,43and2.2timeslargerthantheworldaverage,implyingreductionfactorsofroughly19,17and9.(TheUSreductionvalueof19by2030canbecomparedwithHussmann’scalculatedvalueof66,althoughhisreductionisfor2050.)AlthoughmanytropicalAfricancountriesemittedlessthan5%oftheaverageglobalvalue,mostoftheindustrializingworldwouldalsoneedtoreduceemissions.Intheabsenceofreliablenationaldata,weassumeherethatotherGHGemissionsforeachcountryfollowthesamepatternasfossilfuelC02emissions.
Whataretheimplicationsfortransport,andprivatecartravelinparticular,oftheseproposedreductionsinGHGemissions?
iransportcontributedanestimated19%ofglobalGHGemissionsin1971,but25%in2006•In2003,therewereroughly715millioncarsintheworld(includinglightcommercialvehiclesintheUS),and6270millionpeople,foranaveragecarownershipof114/1000personsand.Butwhenconsideredatthenationallevel,ownershipisfarfromnormallydistributedAlthoughtheglobalaverageis114/1000persons,onlyabout18-5%oftheworldpopulationlivedincountrieswithbetween20and200cars/1000persons.Afurther65%livedincountrieswithlessthan20cars/1000(includingChinaandIndia),andtheremaining16.5%incountrieswithgreater-usuallyfargreater-than200cars/1000.
Clearly,carownershipispresentlyheavilypolarised;peopleeitherliveinhighlymotorisedcountries-usuallyintheOECD-orincountrieswithverylowlevelsofcarownership.Butthepictureischanging.Peopleinallcountries,butparticularlythoseinAsia,wanttoownacar;indeed,Asiareportedlyleadstheworldinaspirationsforcarownership.Whereincomesarerisingrapidly,asinpopulousChinaandIndia,sotooarecarsalesandownership.In2006,China,withsalesof4.1million,becametheworld’sthirdlargestmarketforcars,overtakingGermany(3.4millio