价格形态百科圆弧系6.docx

价格形态百科圆弧系6.docx

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价格形态百科圆弧系6

7、Bump-and-Run,ReversalBottoms

RESULTSSNAPSHOT

Appearance

Lookslikeafryingpanwiththehandleontheleftfollowingatrendlinedownuntilalargedeclineensues.

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）bullishconsolidation

FailureRate

19%

FailureRateifwaitedforbreakout

9%

AverageRise

37%,withmostlikelyrisebetween20%

Throwbacks

38%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

92%

Seealso

CupwithHandle;RoundingBottoms

MorethanayearafterIdiscoveredthebump-and-runreversal（BARR）top,Idecidedtolookforitscomplement:

theBARRbottom.Thereasoningissimple.Manyformations,suchasdoubletops,ascendingtriangles,andtripletopsallhavebottomversions.Whynotthebump-and-runreversal?

Itneverdawnedonmetolookfortheformationbeforethen.AsIsearchedthroughthe2,500yearsofstockdatalookingforcandidates,Iwasskepticalthattheformationaddedrealvalue.Somelookedlikecup-with-handleformationswiththehandlecomingfirst,whereasotherslookedlikeroundingbottoms.OnlyafterIcompiledthestatisticsdidmythoughtschange.

一年前我发现了BARR顶，我决定寻找BARR底。

逻辑很简单，很多形态顶部形态都有对应的底部形态，为什么BARR没有？

有的看起来像手柄先出现的茶杯形态，有的看起来像圆底。

统计完数据后我认为BARR底有实质意义。

Ifyouwaitforabreakout,thefailureratedropsfrom19%to9%.Iconsideranythinglessthan20%toindicateareliableformation.Theaveragegainis37%.Thisisabitshyoftheusual40%forbullishformations,butthemostlikelyrise,at20%,isquitegood.ThepercentageofBARRbottomsmeetingthepricetargetisexceedinglyhigh,at92%.Iconsideranythingover80%tobereliable.Ofcourse,themeasurerulesetsthepricetarget.WeseehowtodothatintheTradingTacticssectionofthischapter.

突破确认后，失败率从19%降至9%。

平均收益37%，略低于平均。

价格目标达成率92%。

Tour

Whatisabump-and-runreversal,anyway?

IfIhadtonamethisformationindependentofallothers,Iwouldprobablycallitthefryingpanorspoonformationbecausethatiswhatitlookslike.However,theformationisjustaBARRtopflippedupsidedown,soIcallitaBARRbottom.IguessamoreaccuratedescriptionisaninvertedBARR.EventhewordbottomisamisnomersincethebestperformingBARRsappearinthemiddleoftheyearly

pricerange.

WhydoBARRbottomsoccur?

Likethetopversion,theBARRbottomisastudyinmomentum.ConsiderthechartshowninFigure7.1onaweeklyscale.Sincelate1991,thestockwasmovingsideways—atradingrangebetween6'/2and11.However,thatchangedduringthelastweekofOctober1993,whenthestockmovedupandclosedhigherthanthepriorweek.Atfirst,thisdidnotseemunusualsincemanyweeksclosehigherthanthepriorweek,butthisonewasdifferent.ItinitiatedalongclimbtothehighsofearlyJanuary.

Onthehighestvolumethatthestockhadseeninyears,thestockhitanewhighof143/8duringtheweekofJanuary14,1994.Volumebegantaperingoff,althoughitwasstillhigh,andpricestaggedamuchsmallerpeakduringtheweekofMarch25,at14.Thetwominorhighs,oneinmid-JanuaryandanotherinlateMarch,formedthebasisofadown-slopingtrendline.Astheweeklyvolumetrendedlower,sodidenthusiasmforthestock.

Eventually,bullishsentimentcouldnotsustainthehighpriceandthestockcollapsed.Asitheadeddown,volumecontinuedtotaperoff.TheupwardmomentumexperiencedduringtherisetothehighsinJanuarywasnowworkingagainstthestock.Overthecourseofayear,thestockgavebackallitsgainsand,bymid-February1995,itstartedsinkingtonewlows.

Highvolumeamonthlaterwasakeyasitsignaledaturningpoint.Aweeklater,againonhighvolume,thestockclosedhigherbyover10%.Theupwardmovehadbegunbutsoonstalledout.Thestockmovedsidewaysforanother2months,gatheringstrengthfortheuphillrun.Thenittookoff,notjumpingup,butslowlymovinghigher,almostweekafterweek.Whenthestockreachedthetrendlineinmid-August,itwasclearthatithadexecutedamassiveroundingbottom—aturninthetrendthatsignaledhigherprices.

Thestockpushedthroughthetrendlineonrelativelyhighvolume,thenpausedforamonth,andformedafallingwedgeorpennant.Followingthat,onveryhighvolume,pricesjumpeduptonewhighs,butthisdidnotlastverylongasthestockenteredaconsolidationphasejustbelow18.Thereitstayedformanymonthsbeforethestockjumpedupandranstillhigher.BylateJune,thestockhadtouched283/4）ariseofabout140%fromthebreakout,and350%fromthelow.

Manywouldrecognizethisformationasacup-with-handle,andindeeditis.ButitisalsoaBARRbottom,asacupdoesnotdependonadown-slopingtrendlineandalargerhandleontheleftsuchasthatshowninFigure7.1.Whateveryoucalltheformation,theresultisstillthesame:

Pricesmovehigher.

IdentificationGuidelines

Table7.1showsahostofcharacteristics