价格形态百科圆弧系6.docx

1、价格形态百科圆弧系67、Bump-and-Run, Reversal BottomsRESULTS SNAPSHOTAppearanceLooks like a frying pan with the handle on the left following a trendline down until a large decline ensues.Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term (up to 3 months) bullish consolidationFailure Rate19%Failure Rate if waited for breakout

2、9%Average Rise37%, with most likely rise between 20%Throwbacks38%Percentage meeting predicted price target92%See alsoCup with Handle; Rounding Bottoms More than a year after I discovered the bump-and-run reversal (BARR) top, I decided to look for its complement: the BARR bottom. The reasoning is sim

3、ple. Many formations, such as double tops, ascending triangles, and triple tops all have bottom versions. Why not the bump-and-run reversal? It never dawned on me to look for the formation before then. As I searched through the 2,500 years of stock data looking for candidates, I was skeptical that t

4、he formation added real value. Some looked like cup-with-handle formations with the handle coming first, whereas others looked like rounding bottoms. Only after I compiled the statistics did my thoughts change.一年前我发现了BARR顶，我决定寻找BARR底。逻辑很简单，很多形态顶部形态都有对应的底部形态，为什么BARR没有？有的看起来像手柄先出现的茶杯形态，有的看起来像圆底。统计完数据后

5、我认为BARR底有实质意义。If you wait for a breakout, the failure rate drops from 19% to 9%. I consider anything less than 20% to indicate a reliable formation. The average gain is 37%. This is a bit shy of the usual 40% for bullish formations, but the most likely rise, at 20%, is quite good. The percentage of

6、BARR bottoms meeting the price target is exceedingly high, at 92%. I consider anything over 80% to be reliable. Of course, the measure rule sets the price target. We see how to do that in the Trading Tactics section of this chapter.突破确认后，失败率从19%降至9%。平均收益37%，略低于平均。价格目标达成率92%。TourWhat is a bump-and-ru

7、n reversal, anyway? If I had to name this formation independent of all others, I would probably call it the frying pan or spoon formation because that is what it looks like. However, the formation is just a BARR top flipped upside down, so I call it a BARR bottom. I guess a more accurate description

8、 is an inverted BARR. Even the word bottom is a misnomer since the best performing BARRs appear in the middle of the yearlyprice range.Why do BARR bottoms occur? Like the top version, the BARR bottom is a study in momentum. Consider the chart shown in Figure 7.1 on a weekly scale. Since late 1991, t

9、he stock was moving sidewaysa trading range between 6/2 and 11. However, that changed during the last week of October 1993, when the stock moved up and closed higher than the prior week. At first, this did not seem unusual since many weeks close higher than the prior week, but this one was different

10、. It initiated a long climb to the highs of early January.On the highest volume that the stock had seen in years, the stock hit a new high of 143/8 during the week of January 14, 1994. Volume began tapering off, although it was still high, and prices tagged a much smaller peak during the week of Mar

11、ch 25, at 14. The two minor highs, one in mid-January and another in late March, formed the basis of a down-sloping trendline. As the weekly volume trended lower, so did enthusiasm for the stock.Eventually, bullish sentiment could not sustain the high price and the stock collapsed. As it headed down

12、, volume continued to taper off. The upward momentum experienced during the rise to the highs in January was now working against the stock. Over the course of a year, the stock gave back all its gains and, by mid-February 1995, it started sinking to new lows. High volume a month later was a key as i

13、t signaled a turning point. A week later, again on high volume, the stock closed higher by over 10%. The upward move had begun but soon stalled out. The stock moved sideways for another 2 months, gathering strength for the uphill run. Then it took off, not jumping up, but slowly moving higher, almos

14、t week after week. When the stock reached the trendline in mid-August, it was clear that it had executed a massive rounding bottoma turn in the trend that signaled higher prices.The stock pushed through the trendline on relatively high volume, then paused for a month, and formed a falling wedge or p

15、ennant. Following that, on very high volume, prices jumped up to new highs, but this did not last very long as the stock entered a consolidation phase just below 18. There it stayed for many months before the stock jumped up and ran still higher. By late June, the stock had touched 283/4) a rise of

16、about 140% from the breakout, and 350% from the low.Many would recognize this formation as a cup-with-handle, and indeed it is. But it is also a BARR bottom, as a cup does not depend on a down-sloping trendline and a larger handle on the left such as that shown in Figure 7.1. Whatever you call the formation, the result is still the same: Prices move higher.Identification GuidelinesTable 7.1 shows a host of characteristics