最新财经资讯中华人民共和国财政部Word文档下载推荐.docx

最新财经资讯中华人民共和国财政部Word文档下载推荐.docx

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第84期

（总第194期）

国际司2014-5-27

目录

一、全球

1.全球货币市场条件空前宽松

二、美欧

1.莫迪上台后的美印关系令人关注

2.各方应致力于打造一个稳定的乌克兰

三、中国

1.房地产放缓到底对中国经济有何影响？

2.中国政府的经济逻辑

3.中国不会重演美国式崛起

Globalmonetaryconditionsareeasierthanever

FT|May25,2014

GavynDavies

Thereismuchtalkabouthowandwhenthecentralbankswillexitfromunconventionalmonetaryaccommodation,atleastintheUSandtheUK.Sofar,itisalltalkandnotmuchaction.

Afewmonthsago,italllookedverydifferent.TheFed'

s“tapertantrums”fromMay2013onwardshaddemonstratedthatmarketscouldbeveryvulnerabletoanyhintofanendtomonetaryaccommodation,andUSmonetaryconditionshadtightenedasbondyieldsrose.

ThePeople'

sBankofChinahadembarkedonwhatseemedlikelytobeaprolongedsqueezeoftheshadowbankingsector.TheECBwasrefusingtoeaseitsstance,despiteanapparentthreatofoutrightdeflation.TheBankofEnglandwasthoughtlikelytoactagainsttheUKhousingbubblebyraisingratesbeforetheendof2014.OnlytheBankofJapanseemedlikelytopressaheadwithunlimitedquantitativeeasing.

ThemarketsfearedthatFedtaperingwouldsoontriggeraglobalmonetarytightening.Sowhathashappenedsince?

Preciselytheopposite.Globalfinancialconditions,onthebestindicatorsavailable,haveactuallyeasedagaininthefirsthalfofthisyear,andnowstandneartotheireasiestlevelssincethefinancialcrisisbegan.

Whetherornotthiswillprovetobeapolicymistake（pleasedonotshootthemessenger!

）,itisanotherremindertoinvestorsthatanygenuinemonetarytighteningcouldstillbeaverylongwayoff.

Thefirstchartshowsthebehaviourofmonetaryconditionsinthethreelargesteconomiessincethecrisis.

TheseFCIs,whichhavebeenkindlyprovidedbyGoldmanSachs,includeseveralindicatorswhichreflectoverallmonetaryconditions,includingshortrates,longrates,creditspreads,equityvaluations,exchangeratesandevenhouseprices.Theythereforecapturemostofthechannelsthroughwhichmonetarypolicy,includingquantitativeeasing,isexpectedtowork.A1percentagepointeasinginthesevariablesisexpectedtoleadtoa1-1.5percentagepointincreaseinrealGDPgrowthoverthesubsequentyear（atleastintheUScase）.

Thereisnostandardwayofmeasuringmonetaryconditionsacceptedbyeveryone.IhavethereforeshownalternativeindicatorscalculatedbyBloomberginthethumbnailchart（clickthegraphtoenlarge）.Theyarenotidentical,butcontainasimilarbasicmessage.

Therearethreemainconclusionstobedrawnfromtheseindicators:

Chinahasclearlyreversedpolicysincelate2013,presumablyasaresultofthestressesnowbeingexperiencedinthepropertysectorandintheshadowbanks.Monetaryconditionshavebeeneasedbyover200basispointsthisyear,reversingmostoflastyear'

stightening.China'

sauthoritieshaveblinkedunderthethreatofahardlanding.Itremainstobeseenwhetherthepolicychangewillbepowerfulenoughtostabilisetheeconomy.Moremaywellbeneeded.

Monetaryconditionsintheeuroareahaveremainedveryeasy,becausethespreadsonperipheraldebtmarketshavecollapsed,andthishasmorethanoffsettheriseintheexchangerate.Morerecently,themarketshavepricedinanexpectedeasingbytheECBinJune,andbundyieldshaveplummeted.Notethat,althoughtheECBisregularlycriticisedforkeepingpolicytootight,monetaryconditionsintheeuroareahaveinfacteasedasmuchas,ormorethan,theyhaveintheUSsincethecrash.Thisdemonstratesthattheeffectsofquantitativeeasingonbondyieldsandmonetaryconditionsarefeltglobally,andarenotconfinedwithinthebordersofasinglecountry.

MonetaryconditionsintheUShavenotonlyremainedveryeasythisyear,buthaveinfacteasedfurther,evenastheFedhastapereditsassetpurchases.Thishasfollowedthedropingovernmentbondyields,somethingwhichhasbeencountertomanyinvestors'

expectationsatthestartoftheyear.ThenegativeUSGDPgrowthratein2014Q1hasnodoubtbeenafactor,butitisimportanttonotethatthedropinbondyieldshasnothappenedbecauseofanychangeintheexpectedpathforFedpolicyupto2016.Instead,themarketseemstobeworryingaboutmuchlowerequilibriuminterestratesinthemediumterm–secularstagnationwouldbeonetermforit.TheimportantspeechlastweekbyBillDudley（PresidentoftheNewYorkFed）aboutthedeclineintheequilibriumrealinterestratesincethe2008crashisthelatestsignthatthisideaisgaininggroundinpolicycircles.

GlobalAggregates

IhaveaddedtogethertheindicatorsfortheUS,theeuroareaandChina,usingnominalGDPweights,toproduceanoverallproxyindicatorforglobalmonetaryconditions.Thisisshownbelow,usingtheGoldmanSachsandBloombergdatarespectively.Onceagain,t