最新财经资讯中华人民共和国财政部Word文档下载推荐.docx

1、第84期（总第194期）国际司 2014-5-27目 录一、 全球1. 全球货币市场条件空前宽松二、 美欧1. 莫迪上台后的美印关系令人关注2. 各方应致力于打造一个稳定的乌克兰三、 中国1. 房地产放缓到底对中国经济有何影响？2. 中国政府的经济逻辑3. 中国不会重演美国式崛起Global monetary conditions are easier than everFT | May 25,2014Gavyn Davies There is much talk about how and when the central banks will exit from unconventiona

2、l monetary accommodation, at least in the US and the UK. So far, it is all talk and not much action.A few months ago, it all looked very different. The Feds “taper tantrums” from May 2013 onwards had demonstrated that markets could be very vulnerable to any hint of an end to monetary accommodation,

3、and US monetary conditions had tightened as bond yields rose.The Peoples Bank of China had embarked on what seemed likely to be a prolonged squeeze of the shadow banking sector. The ECB was refusing to ease its stance, despite an apparent threat of outright deflation. The Bank of England was thought

4、 likely to act against the UK housing bubble by raising rates before the end of 2014. Only the Bank of Japan seemed likely to press ahead with unlimited quantitative easing.The markets feared that Fed tapering would soon trigger a global monetary tightening. So what has happened since? Precisely the

5、 opposite. Global financial conditions, on the best indicators available, have actually eased again in the first half of this year, and now stand near to their easiest levels since the financial crisis began.Whether or not this will prove to be a policy mistake （please do not shoot the messenger!）,

6、it is another reminder to investors that any genuine monetary tightening could still be a very long way off.The first chart shows the behaviour of monetary conditions in the three largest economies since the crisis.These FCIs, which have been kindly provided by Goldman Sachs, include several indicat

7、ors which reflect overall monetary conditions, including short rates, long rates, credit spreads, equity valuations, exchange rates and even house prices. They therefore capture most of the channels through which monetary policy, including quantitative easing, is expected to work. A 1 percentage poi

8、nt easing in these variables is expected to lead to a 1-1.5 percentage point increase in real GDP growth over the subsequent year （at least in the US case）.There is no standard way of measuring monetary conditions accepted by everyone. I have therefore shown alternative indicators calculated by Bloo

9、mberg in the thumbnail chart （click the graph to enlarge）. They are not identical, but contain a similar basic message.There are three main conclusions to be drawn from these indicators:China has clearly reversed policy since late 2013, presumably as a result of the stresses now being experienced in

10、 the property sector and in the shadow banks. Monetary conditions have been eased by over 200 basis points this year, reversing most of last years tightening. Chinas authorities have blinked under the threat of a hard landing. It remains to be seen whether the policy change will be powerful enough t

11、o stabilise the economy. More may well be needed.Monetary conditions in the euro area have remained very easy, because the spreads on peripheral debt markets have collapsed, and this has more than offset the rise in the exchange rate. More recently, the markets have priced in an expected easing by t

12、he ECB in June , and bund yields have plummeted. Note that, although the ECB is regularly criticised for keeping policy too tight, monetary conditions in the euro area have in fact eased as much as, or more than, they have in the US since the crash. This demonstrates that the effects of quantitative

13、 easing on bond yields and monetary conditions are felt globally, and are not confined within the borders of a single country.Monetary conditions in the US have not only remained very easy this year, but have in fact eased further, even as the Fed has tapered its asset purchases. This has followed t

14、he drop in government bond yields, something which has been counter to many investors expectations at the start of the year. The negative US GDP growth rate in 2014 Q1 has no doubt been a factor, but it is important to note that the drop in bond yields has not happened because of any change in the e

15、xpected path for Fed policy up to 2016. Instead, the market seems to be worrying about much lower equilibrium interest rates in the medium term secular stagnation would be one term for it. The important speech last week by Bill Dudley （President of the New York Fed） about the decline in the equilibr

16、ium real interest rate since the 2008 crash is the latest sign that this idea is gaining ground in policy circles.Global AggregatesI have added together the indicators for the US, the euro area and China, using nominal GDP weights, to produce an overall proxy indicator for global monetary conditions. This is shown below, using the Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg data respectively.Once again, t