硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx
《硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx(12页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
![硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx](https://file1.bdocx.com/fileroot1/2023-4/17/085a34bc-0aed-495e-9cca-52a9d7a385aa/085a34bc-0aed-495e-9cca-52a9d7a385aa1.gif)
硕士论文开题报告人民币汇率升值影响与对策
Title:
TheimpactonChina'seconomyandCountermeasuresofRMBRevaluation
ThisresearchproposalisanApplied—ConsultancyResearchProposal.
Sectionone:
Introduction
1.1Statementofproblem
Exchangerateisatiesofacountry’sforeigneconomyandtrade.Theexchangerateregimeisanimportantcomponentofacountry'seconomysystem.Theappropriateexchangerateregimeisanimportantguaranteeforeconomygrowthofonecountry.SinceformationmechanismreformofRMBexchangeratein2005,itexperiencedasteadytrendofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.Butsinceearly2007,theRMBexchangeratewascharacterizedbyacceleratingtheappreciationasawhole.Andtheexpectationtoappreciationwasalsostrengthenedagain.Atthesametime,thepressureontheRMBappreciationcontinuedtogrowworldwide.TheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateandthecorrespondingimpactonchina’seconomyarebecomingthefocusissuesofinternationaleconomy,andalsohasbecomethemajortheoreticalandpracticalissuesforChinatodealwiththeincreasinglycomplexinternationaleconomicsituationwhichmustbefacedupwith.Ithasbeenahottopicovertheworld.
1.2Needs&JustificationoftheStudy
Withthedevelopmentofeconomyglobalization,internationaleconomyhasbecomeincreasinglyinseparableandinteractive.Asalinkofinternationaleconomy,theexchangerateismoreflexibleandfluctuant,andtheconsequentimpactoninternationaleconomyarealsomoreintense.Exchangerateisadouble-edgedsword,thefluctuationofexchangeratehasamulti-influencesonacountry'seconomy.Therearepositiveandnegativeimpacts.AstheresultofChina'sboomingdevelopmentand“strongeconomy”,RMBappreciationisinevitable.RMBappreciationwillhaveaprofoundimpactnotonlyonChina'seconomybutalsoontheregionaleconomyandtheworldeconomy.Topredicttheseongoingchangesandtodevelopthecorrespondingcountermeasuresareimportant.
TheappreciationofRMBexchangeratewillhaveafar-reachingimpactonChina'seconomyforlong-termdevelopment,anditwillalsoacceleratetheprocessofRMB’sworldmonetary.FacingwiththeappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate,ChinashouldtakereasonablecountermeasurestopromotethereformofRMBexchangerateformationmechanismactivelyandsteadily,andshouldimprovetheabilitytoadapttofluctuations.Intheend,China'sexchangerateregimewillbemoreflexibletoresponsetotheincreasinglycomplexinternationaleconomicsituation.
1.3ResearchAims
TheaimsaretoclarifythattheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateisaninevitableoutcomeofChina'seconomydevelopmentbyusingtheexchangeratedecisiontheoryandanin-deepanalysisoftheinternationalbackgroundandinternalfactorsforappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate.
Inthemeanwhile,itwillstatethattheadvantagesoutweighthedisadvantagesoftheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateafterasyntheticalevaluationontheinfluenceonChina'seconomyatalllevels,includingthepositiveandnegativeinfluence.
Besides,itwillconcludethatChinashouldactivelypromotethereformoftheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism,buttheappreciationoftheBMBexchangerateshouldtaketheinitiative,controllableandgradualmanner.ItwillalsoputforwardtocountermeasureswhichChinamaytakefacingthesituationofappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateandrecommendationsonthereformoftheRMBexchangerateregime.
1.4ResearchObjectives
1.EmpiricallyanalysisthebackgroundofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.
2.DefiningmaininternalfactorsofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.
3.DefiningmajorexternalfactorsofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.
4.Toaccessthepositiveinfluences(advantages)onChina’seconomydevelopment.
5.Toaccessthenegativeinfluences(disadvantages)onChina’seconomydevelopment.
6.Discussingtheshort-termmeasurestorelievethepressureofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.
7.Exploringthelong-termstrategytodealwiththeappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate.
8.ToforeseethefuturetrendofRMBexchangerateregime.
1.5DefinitionofTerms
ExchangeratesandtheexchangerateregimeTheexchangeratestatestheprice,intermofonecurrency,atwhichanothercurrencycanbebought.Exchangerateregime(exchangeratearrangements)referstoaseriesofarrangementsorrequirementssetupbyacountry'smonetaryauthorityaccordingtoexchangeratemovements.Traditionally,inaccordancewiththemagnitudeofexchangeratefluctuations,theexchangeratesystemwasdividedintotwotypes:
afixedexchangeratesystemandthefloatingexchangeratesystem.
FixedexchangeratesandfloatingexchangeratesFixedexchangeratesareratessetbygovernmentdecisionsandmaintainedbygovernmentactions.Floatingexchangeratesmeansthegovernmentdoesnotinterveneintheforeignexchangemarkets,butsimplyallowstheexchangeratetobefreelydeterminedbydemandandsupply.
AppreciateanddepreciateAnation’scurrencyissaidtoappreciatewhenexchangerateschangesothataunitofitsowncurrencycanbymoreunitsofforeigncurrency.Thecurrencyissaidtodepreciatewhenexchangerateschangesothataunitofitscurrencycanbuyfewerunitsofforeigncurrency.
DevaluationandrevaluationAdevaluationisareductionintheofficialvalueofacurrency.Arevaluationisanincreaseintheofficialvalueofacurrency.
Sectiontwo:
LiteratureReview
2.1Determinationoftherateofexchange
Inafreeforeignexchangemarket,therateofexchangeisdeterminedbydemandandsupply(Sloman,J.2007).Butinthelongrun,purchasing-powerparityplaysanimportantroleintheexchangeratedetermination.Pilbeam(1998)statedthatinthepresenceofacompetitivemarketstructureandtheabsenceoftransportcostsandotherbarrierstotrade,identicalproductswhicharesoldindifferentmarketswillsellatthesamepricewhenexpressedintermsofacommoncurrency.Inthemeantime,theeconomicactivityismuchmoreimportantinthemediumrun.Itsaysanationthatgrowsmorerapidlythanitstradingpartnersmayfinditselfwithadepreciatingcurrency.Astotheshortrun,interestratedifferentialsdetermineexchangerate.Ariseininterestratesoftenwillleadtoanappreciationofthecurrency,andadropininterestrateswillleadtoadepreciation(BaumolandBlinder,1991).
2.2ThereformprocessofRMBexchangerateregime
AccordingtoZhang(2003),thereformprocessofRMBexchangerateregimeexperiencedfourstages.
ReformStageI(1981-1985).Theexchangeratereformwasfirstcontemplatedinthelate1970swhenthelaunchofgeneralreforms.Thegovernmentdecidedtoadopt,inadditiontotheofficialexchangerate,an`InternalRateforTradeSettlements'(IRTS).Thismarkedthefirstofficialrecognitionthatthethenexchangeratewasovervalued.
ReformStageII(1986-1991).Theexperimentwiththecrawlingpegendedin1986.Theofficialratewasthenpegged,withoccasionalbutlargedevaluationshappeningbetweenintervals.In1991,Chinaformallyannouncedtheadoptionofafloatingexchangerateregime.Whiletheofficialratewaspegged,theswapexchangeratewasgraduallyfreed.Itsfluctuationsimpliedthe`effective'exchangewasinfactflexible,renderingthenotionthatduringtheperiodChinawasinafixedrateregimeaninaccuratedescription.
ReformStageIII(1991-1993).AccordingtoChineseauthorities,onlyinthisperiodwasChinesecurrencyformallyadoptedasafloatingexchangerateregime,althoughtheIMFhadalreadyclassifiedChinaashavingamanagedfloatingratesystemsince1987.
ReformStageIV(1994-).Toredresstheproblemscausedbytheswapmarket,thegovernmentmergedtheexchangeratesandmovedtowardsconvertibilityin1994.
2.3TheinternalandinternationalbackgroundsontherevaluationofRMB
In2004,JapanfirstcallforChinatorevaluetheRMB,thentheUS,EuropeandsomeothercountriesjoinedJapan’call.TheyclaimthatRMBisundervalued,forChinapegsitscurrencytoanincreasinglyweakerUSdollar,theybelieveChinaisnowgettinganunfaircompetitiveassist.TheyaccuseBeijingofkeepingthevalueoftheitscurrency,theRMB,atanartificiallylowlevelthatunfairlyboostsChineseexportsbymakingthemcheaperevenasthoseexportscutdownAmericanjobopportunities.IfitonlyrevaluestheRMB,therestoftheworldwouldthenhavemoreofachance(Liao,2004).
Japan,theUSandEuropethinkRMBisundervaluedandcallforRMBtorevalueongroundofthefellowevidences:
First,Chinahaveaccumulatedheftyforeignexchangereverse,China’stotalforeigncurrencyreserveshavebeenrisingrapidly.Itwas13.98bnin1997,40bnin2003,and106.6bnin2006andreached$152.8bnattheendof2007.Second,China’sexporthasbeensteadilyandrapidlyincreasing.Itisthefourth-largesttradingpartneroftheUSandamongthetopfivetradingpartnersofJapanandmanyAsianandEuropeancountries.
Chinahasexperiencedasustainedandrelativelyhigheconomygrowthsincetheimplementationofitsreformandopen-upstrategy.
Table1,DifferenceintherateofeconomygrowthbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesin1994-2006
Rateofeconomygrowth
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
China
12.6%
10.5%
9.6%
8.8%
7.8%
7.1%
8.0%
7.5%
8.3%
10%
10.1%
10.4%
10.7%
U.S.A
3.5%
2.0%
2.4%
3.9%
3.9%
4.2%
3.7%
0.5%
2.2%
2.1%
4.1%
3.5%
3.3%
Difference
9.1%
8.5%
7.2%
4.9%
3.9%
2.9%
4.3%
7.0%
6.1%
7.9%
6%
7.1%
7.4%
FromTable1,wecanseethatfrom1994to2006,thegapbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateswasfrom2.9%to9.1%.Butnomatte