硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx

硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx

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硕士论文开题报告人民币汇率升值影响与对策

Title:

TheimpactonChina'seconomyandCountermeasuresofRMBRevaluation

ThisresearchproposalisanApplied—ConsultancyResearchProposal.

Sectionone:

Introduction

1.1Statementofproblem

Exchangerateisatiesofacountry’sforeigneconomyandtrade.Theexchangerateregimeisanimportantcomponentofacountry'seconomysystem.Theappropriateexchangerateregimeisanimportantguaranteeforeconomygrowthofonecountry.SinceformationmechanismreformofRMBexchangeratein2005,itexperiencedasteadytrendofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.Butsinceearly2007,theRMBexchangeratewascharacterizedbyacceleratingtheappreciationasawhole.Andtheexpectationtoappreciationwasalsostrengthenedagain.Atthesametime,thepressureontheRMBappreciationcontinuedtogrowworldwide.TheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateandthecorrespondingimpactonchina’seconomyarebecomingthefocusissuesofinternationaleconomy,andalsohasbecomethemajortheoreticalandpracticalissuesforChinatodealwiththeincreasinglycomplexinternationaleconomicsituationwhichmustbefacedupwith.Ithasbeenahottopicovertheworld.

1.2Needs&JustificationoftheStudy

Withthedevelopmentofeconomyglobalization,internationaleconomyhasbecomeincreasinglyinseparableandinteractive.Asalinkofinternationaleconomy,theexchangerateismoreflexibleandfluctuant,andtheconsequentimpactoninternationaleconomyarealsomoreintense.Exchangerateisadouble-edgedsword,thefluctuationofexchangeratehasamulti-influencesonacountry'seconomy.Therearepositiveandnegativeimpacts.AstheresultofChina'sboomingdevelopmentand“strongeconomy”,RMBappreciationisinevitable.RMBappreciationwillhaveaprofoundimpactnotonlyonChina'seconomybutalsoontheregionaleconomyandtheworldeconomy.Topredicttheseongoingchangesandtodevelopthecorrespondingcountermeasuresareimportant.

TheappreciationofRMBexchangeratewillhaveafar-reachingimpactonChina'seconomyforlong-termdevelopment,anditwillalsoacceleratetheprocessofRMB’sworldmonetary.FacingwiththeappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate,ChinashouldtakereasonablecountermeasurestopromotethereformofRMBexchangerateformationmechanismactivelyandsteadily,andshouldimprovetheabilitytoadapttofluctuations.Intheend,China'sexchangerateregimewillbemoreflexibletoresponsetotheincreasinglycomplexinternationaleconomicsituation.

1.3ResearchAims

TheaimsaretoclarifythattheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateisaninevitableoutcomeofChina'seconomydevelopmentbyusingtheexchangeratedecisiontheoryandanin-deepanalysisoftheinternationalbackgroundandinternalfactorsforappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate.

Inthemeanwhile,itwillstatethattheadvantagesoutweighthedisadvantagesoftheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateafterasyntheticalevaluationontheinfluenceonChina'seconomyatalllevels,includingthepositiveandnegativeinfluence.

Besides,itwillconcludethatChinashouldactivelypromotethereformoftheRMBexchangerateformationmechanism,buttheappreciationoftheBMBexchangerateshouldtaketheinitiative,controllableandgradualmanner.ItwillalsoputforwardtocountermeasureswhichChinamaytakefacingthesituationofappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateandrecommendationsonthereformoftheRMBexchangerateregime.

1.4ResearchObjectives

1.EmpiricallyanalysisthebackgroundofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.

2.DefiningmaininternalfactorsofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.

3.DefiningmajorexternalfactorsofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.

4.Toaccessthepositiveinfluences（advantages）onChina’seconomydevelopment.

5.Toaccessthenegativeinfluences（disadvantages）onChina’seconomydevelopment.

6.Discussingtheshort-termmeasurestorelievethepressureofappreciationofRMBexchangerate.

7.Exploringthelong-termstrategytodealwiththeappreciationoftheRMBexchangerate.

8.ToforeseethefuturetrendofRMBexchangerateregime.

1.5DefinitionofTerms

ExchangeratesandtheexchangerateregimeTheexchangeratestatestheprice,intermofonecurrency,atwhichanothercurrencycanbebought.Exchangerateregime（exchangeratearrangements）referstoaseriesofarrangementsorrequirementssetupbyacountry'smonetaryauthorityaccordingtoexchangeratemovements.Traditionally,inaccordancewiththemagnitudeofexchangeratefluctuations,theexchangeratesystemwasdividedintotwotypes:

afixedexchangeratesystemandthefloatingexchangeratesystem.

FixedexchangeratesandfloatingexchangeratesFixedexchangeratesareratessetbygovernmentdecisionsandmaintainedbygovernmentactions.Floatingexchangeratesmeansthegovernmentdoesnotinterveneintheforeignexchangemarkets,butsimplyallowstheexchangeratetobefreelydeterminedbydemandandsupply.

AppreciateanddepreciateAnation’scurrencyissaidtoappreciatewhenexchangerateschangesothataunitofitsowncurrencycanbymoreunitsofforeigncurrency.Thecurrencyissaidtodepreciatewhenexchangerateschangesothataunitofitscurrencycanbuyfewerunitsofforeigncurrency.

DevaluationandrevaluationAdevaluationisareductionintheofficialvalueofacurrency.Arevaluationisanincreaseintheofficialvalueofacurrency.

Sectiontwo:

LiteratureReview

2.1Determinationoftherateofexchange

Inafreeforeignexchangemarket,therateofexchangeisdeterminedbydemandandsupply（Sloman,J.2007）.Butinthelongrun,purchasing-powerparityplaysanimportantroleintheexchangeratedetermination.Pilbeam（1998）statedthatinthepresenceofacompetitivemarketstructureandtheabsenceoftransportcostsandotherbarrierstotrade,identicalproductswhicharesoldindifferentmarketswillsellatthesamepricewhenexpressedintermsofacommoncurrency.Inthemeantime,theeconomicactivityismuchmoreimportantinthemediumrun.Itsaysanationthatgrowsmorerapidlythanitstradingpartnersmayfinditselfwithadepreciatingcurrency.Astotheshortrun,interestratedifferentialsdetermineexchangerate.Ariseininterestratesoftenwillleadtoanappreciationofthecurrency,andadropininterestrateswillleadtoadepreciation（BaumolandBlinder,1991）.

2.2ThereformprocessofRMBexchangerateregime

AccordingtoZhang（2003）,thereformprocessofRMBexchangerateregimeexperiencedfourstages.

ReformStageI（1981-1985）.Theexchangeratereformwasfirstcontemplatedinthelate1970swhenthelaunchofgeneralreforms.Thegovernmentdecidedtoadopt,inadditiontotheofficialexchangerate,an`InternalRateforTradeSettlements'（IRTS）.Thismarkedthefirstofficialrecognitionthatthethenexchangeratewasovervalued.

ReformStageII（1986-1991）.Theexperimentwiththecrawlingpegendedin1986.Theofficialratewasthenpegged,withoccasionalbutlargedevaluationshappeningbetweenintervals.In1991,Chinaformallyannouncedtheadoptionofafloatingexchangerateregime.Whiletheofficialratewaspegged,theswapexchangeratewasgraduallyfreed.Itsfluctuationsimpliedthe`effective'exchangewasinfactflexible,renderingthenotionthatduringtheperiodChinawasinafixedrateregimeaninaccuratedescription.

ReformStageIII（1991-1993）.AccordingtoChineseauthorities,onlyinthisperiodwasChinesecurrencyformallyadoptedasafloatingexchangerateregime,althoughtheIMFhadalreadyclassifiedChinaashavingamanagedfloatingratesystemsince1987.

ReformStageIV（1994-）.Toredresstheproblemscausedbytheswapmarket,thegovernmentmergedtheexchangeratesandmovedtowardsconvertibilityin1994.

2.3TheinternalandinternationalbackgroundsontherevaluationofRMB

In2004,JapanfirstcallforChinatorevaluetheRMB,thentheUS,EuropeandsomeothercountriesjoinedJapan’call.TheyclaimthatRMBisundervalued,forChinapegsitscurrencytoanincreasinglyweakerUSdollar,theybelieveChinaisnowgettinganunfaircompetitiveassist.TheyaccuseBeijingofkeepingthevalueoftheitscurrency,theRMB,atanartificiallylowlevelthatunfairlyboostsChineseexportsbymakingthemcheaperevenasthoseexportscutdownAmericanjobopportunities.IfitonlyrevaluestheRMB,therestoftheworldwouldthenhavemoreofachance（Liao,2004）.

Japan,theUSandEuropethinkRMBisundervaluedandcallforRMBtorevalueongroundofthefellowevidences:

First,Chinahaveaccumulatedheftyforeignexchangereverse,China’stotalforeigncurrencyreserveshavebeenrisingrapidly.Itwas13.98bnin1997,40bnin2003,and106.6bnin2006andreached$152.8bnattheendof2007.Second,China’sexporthasbeensteadilyandrapidlyincreasing.Itisthefourth-largesttradingpartneroftheUSandamongthetopfivetradingpartnersofJapanandmanyAsianandEuropeancountries.

Chinahasexperiencedasustainedandrelativelyhigheconomygrowthsincetheimplementationofitsreformandopen-upstrategy.

Table1,DifferenceintherateofeconomygrowthbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesin1994-2006

Rateofeconomygrowth

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

China

12.6%

10.5%

9.6%

8.8%

7.8%

7.1%

8.0%

7.5%

8.3%

10%

10.1%

10.4%

10.7%

U.S.A

3.5%

2.0%

2.4%

3.9%

3.9%

4.2%

3.7%

0.5%

2.2%

2.1%

4.1%

3.5%

3.3%

Difference

9.1%

8.5%

7.2%

4.9%

3.9%

2.9%

4.3%

7.0%

6.1%

7.9%

6%

7.1%

7.4%

FromTable1,wecanseethatfrom1994to2006,thegapbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStateswasfrom2.9%to9.1%.Butnomatte