硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策.docx

1、硕士论文开题报告 人民币汇率升值影响与对策Title: The impact on Chinas economy and Countermeasures of RMB RevaluationThis research proposal is an AppliedConsultancy Research Proposal. Section one: Introduction1.1 Statement of problemExchange rate is a ties of a countrys foreign economy and trade. The exchange rate regime

2、 is an important component of a countrys economy system. The appropriate exchange rate regime is an important guarantee for economy growth of one country. Since formation mechanism reform of RMB exchange rate in 2005, it experienced a steady trend of appreciation of RMB exchange rate. But since earl

3、y 2007, the RMB exchange rate was characterized by accelerating the appreciation as a whole. And the expectation to appreciation was also strengthened again. At the same time, the pressure on the RMB appreciation continued to grow worldwide. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the correspo

4、nding impact on chinas economy are becoming the focus issues of international economy, and also has become the major theoretical and practical issues for China to deal with the increasingly complex international economic situation which must be faced up with. It has been a hot topic over the world.1

5、.2 Needs & Justification of the StudyWith the development of economy globalization, international economy has become increasingly inseparable and interactive. As a link of international economy, the exchange rate is more flexible and fluctuant, and the consequent impact on international economy are

6、also more intense. Exchange rate is a double-edged sword, the fluctuation of exchange rate has a multi-influences on a countrys economy. There are positive and negative impacts. As the result of Chinas booming development and “strong economy”, RMB appreciation is inevitable. RMB appreciation will ha

7、ve a profound impact not only on Chinas economy but also on the regional economy and the world economy. To predict these ongoing changes and to develop the corresponding countermeasures are important.The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will have a far-reaching impact on Chinas economy for long-ter

8、m development, and it will also accelerate the process of RMBs world monetary. Facing with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, China should take reasonable countermeasures to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism actively and steadily, and should improve the ability to a

9、dapt to fluctuations. In the end, Chinas exchange rate regime will be more flexible to response to the increasingly complex international economic situation.1.3 Research AimsThe aims are to clarify that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is an inevitable outcome of Chinas economy development

10、by using the exchange rate decision theory and an in-deep analysis of the international background and internal factors for appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the meanwhile, it will state that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate after a synth

11、etical evaluation on the influence on Chinas economy at all levels, including the positive and negative influence. Besides, it will conclude that China should actively promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, but the appreciation of the BMB exchange rate should take the initi

12、ative, controllable and gradual manner. It will also put forward to countermeasures which China may take facing the situation of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and recommendations on the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime.1.4 Research Objectives1. Empirically analysis the background of ap

13、preciation of RMB exchange rate. 2. Defining main internal factors of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.3. Defining major external factors of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.4. To access the positive influences (advantages) on Chinas economy development. 5. To access the negative influences (disad

14、vantages) on Chinas economy development. 6. Discussing the short-term measures to relieve the pressure of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.7. Exploring the long-term strategy to deal with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.8. To foresee the future trend of RMB exchange rate regime.1.5 Defini

15、tion of TermsExchange rates and the exchange rate regime The exchange rate states the price, in term of one currency, at which another currency can be bought. Exchange rate regime (exchange rate arrangements) refers to a series of arrangements or requirements set up by a countrys monetary authority

16、according to exchange rate movements. Traditionally, in accordance with the magnitude of exchange rate fluctuations, the exchange rate system was divided into two types: a fixed exchange rate system and the floating exchange rate system.Fixed exchange rates and floating exchange rates Fixed exchange

17、 rates are rates set by government decisions and maintained by government actions. Floating exchange rates means the government does not intervene in the foreign exchange markets, but simply allows the exchange rate to be freely determined by demand and supply. Appreciate and depreciate A nations cu

18、rrency is said to appreciate when exchange rates change so that a unit of its own currency can by more units of foreign currency. The currency is said to depreciate when exchange rates change so that a unit of its currency can buy fewer units of foreign currency.Devaluation and revaluation A devalua

19、tion is a reduction in the official value of a currency. A revaluation is an increase in the official value of a currency.Section two: Literature Review2.1Determination of the rate of exchangeIn a free foreign exchange market, the rate of exchange is determined by demand and supply (Sloman, J. 2007)

20、. But in the long run, purchasing-power parity plays an important role in the exchange rate determination. Pilbeam (1998) stated that in the presence of a competitive market structure and the absence of transport costs and other barriers to trade, identical products which are sold in different marke

21、ts will sell at the same price when expressed in terms of a common currency. In the mean time, the economic activity is much more important in the medium run. It says a nation that grows more rapidly than its trading partners may find itself with a depreciating currency. As to the short run, interes

22、t rate differentials determine exchange rate. A rise in interest rates often will lead to an appreciation of the currency, and a drop in interest rates will lead to a depreciation (Baumol and Blinder, 1991).2.2 The reform process of RMB exchange rate regimeAccording to Zhang (2003), the reform proce

23、ss of RMB exchange rate regime experienced four stages.Reform Stage I (1981-1985). The exchange rate reform was first contemplated in the late 1970s when the launch of general reforms. The government decided to adopt, in addition to the official exchange rate, an Internal Rate for Trade Settlements

24、(IRTS). This marked the first official recognition that the then exchange rate was overvalued. Reform Stage II (1986-1991). The experiment with the crawling peg ended in 1986. The official rate was then pegged, with occasional but large devaluations happening between intervals. In 1991, China formal

25、ly announced the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime. While the official rate was pegged, the swap exchange rate was gradually freed. Its fluctuations implied the effective exchange was in fact flexible, rendering the notion that during the period China was in a fixed rate regime an inaccura

26、te description. Reform Stage III (1991-1993). According to Chinese authorities, only in this period was Chinese currency formally adopted as a floating exchange rate regime, although the IMF had already classified China as having a managed floating rate system since 1987. Reform Stage IV (1994-). To

27、 redress the problems caused by the swap market, the government merged the exchange rates and moved towards convertibility in 1994.2.3 The internal and international backgrounds on the revaluation of RMBIn 2004, Japan first call for China to revalue the RMB, then the US, Europe and some other countr

28、ies joined Japan call. They claim that RMB is undervalued, for China pegs its currency to an increasingly weaker US dollar, they believe China is now getting an unfair competitive assist. They accuse Beijing of keeping the value of the its currency, the RMB, at an artificially low level that unfairl

29、y boosts Chinese exports by making them cheaper even as those exports cut down American job opportunities. If it only revalues the RMB, the rest of the world would then have more of a chance (Liao, 2004).Japan, the US and Europe think RMB is undervalued and call for RMB to revalue on ground of the f

30、ellow evidences: First, China have accumulated hefty foreign exchange reverse, Chinas total foreign currency reserves have been rising rapidly. It was 13.98bn in 1997, 40bn in 2003, and 106.6bn in 2006 and reached $152.8bn at the end of 2007. Second, Chinas export has been steadily and rapidly incre

31、asing. It is the fourth-largest trading partner of the US and among the top five trading partners of Japan and many Asian and European countries. China has experienced a sustained and relatively high economy growth since the implementation of its reform and open-up strategy.Table 1, Difference in th

32、e rate of economy growth between China and the United States in 1994-2006Rate of economy growth1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006China12.6%10.5%9.6%8.8%7.8%7.1%8.0%7.5%8.3%10%10.1%10.4%10.7%U.S.A3.5%2.0%2.4%3.9%3.9%4.2%3.7%0.5%2.2%2.1%4.1%3.5%3.3%Difference9.1%8.5%7.2%4.9%3.9%2.9%4.3%7.0%6.1%7.9%6%7.1%7.4%From Table 1, we can see that from 1994 to 2006, the gap between China and the United States was from 2.9% to 9.1 %. But no matte