本科毕业设计外文文献.docx

本科毕业设计外文文献.docx

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本科毕业设计外文文献

本科毕业设计

外文文献及译文

文献、资料题目：

UnderstandingProjectCostContingency-ASurvey

文献、资料来源：

TheQueenslandUniversityofTechnology

ResearchWeekInternationalConference

文献、资料发表（出版）日期：

2014.7.8

院（部）：

管理工程学院

专业：

工程造价

班级

姓名：

学号：

指导教师：

翻译日期：

外文文献：

UnderstandingProjectCostContingency-ASurvey

DavidBaccarini

DepartmentofConstructionManagement,CurtinUniversityofTechnology,POBoxU1987,Perth6845,WesternAustralia,Australia.

ABSTRACT

Patrascu（1988）observednearlytwodecadesagothat"contingencyisprobablythemostmisunderstood,misinterpreted,andmisappliedwordinprojectexecution."Sincethattimetherehasbeenlittleempiricalresearchintoprojectpeople’sunderstandingoftheconceptofprojectcostcontingency.

Thispaperreportstheresultsofasurveyof78projectpractitioners’comprehensionofissuespertainingtoprojectcostcontingency.Whilstthereisconsensusthatcostcontingencyisareserveofmoneywhichshouldbeusedforscopechanges,akeyfindingisthatthereisalackofappreciationthatprojectcostcontingencyisariskmanagementnotion.Consequently,themajorityofpractitioners（77%）continuetouseadeterministicpercentageapproachforestimatingprojectcostcontingency.Furthermore,46%ofrespondentsworkinorganisationsthatdonothaveapolicyoncontingencyand36%donotmanagetheuseofcontingency.

Overall,thissuggeststhereissignificantroomforimprovementintheunderstanding,estimationandmanagementofprojectcostcontingency.

Keywords:

contingency,projectriskmanagement.

INTRODUCTION

Therearethreebasictypesofcontingenciesinprojects:

toleranceinthespecification;floatintheschedule;and,moneyinthebudget（CIRIA1996）.Itisthelatter-projectcostcontingency-thatisthefocusoftheresearchreportedinthispaper.

Thecostperformanceofbuildingconstructionprojectsisakeysuccesscriterionforprojectsponsors.Projectsrequirebudgetstosetthesponsor’sfinancialcommitmentandprovidethebasisforcostcontrolandmeasurementofcostperformance.Akeycomponentofaprojectbudgetiscostcontingency.Projectcostcontingencyhasbeenapartofprojectsandprojectmanagementforatleastfiftyyears（RICS1948）andprobablymuchlonger.Mosttextbooksonprojectmanagementandinparticularprojectcostmanagementinvariablycontainsomereferencetoprojectcostcontingency（egPMI2004）.Despitetheubiquityofprojectcostcontingencyinthetheoryofprojectcostmanagement,therehasbeenlittleempiricalresearchintoprojectpractitioners’understandingoftheconcept,itsintendedscope,methodsofestimatingormanagement.

Patrascu（1988）observedthat"contingencyisprobablythemostmisunderstood,misinterpreted,andmisappliedwordinprojectexecution.Contingencycananddoesmeandifferentthingstodifferentpeople".Itisimportanttoinvestigatethisunderstandingbecausecontingencyisaubiquitousfactorinprojectsandpeople’sunderstandingoftheconceptwillaffecthowcontingencyismanaged.

RESEARCHDESIGN

Asurveyinstrumentwasdevelopedfromtheprojectcostcontingencyliterature,containingopenandclosedquestions.TheauthorpresentedarefereedconferencepaperonprojectcostcontingencyataprojectmanagementconferenceinMelbourneinAugust2004.Theconferenceparticipantsattendingthepresentationweretheresearchsample.Priortothepresentationofthepapertheaudiencewererequestedtocompletethequestionnaireonprojectcostcontingencyand78responseswerereceivedandanalysed.

Table1showsthedemographicdetailsfortheresearchsample.Keyobservationsarethatconstruction/engineeringandinformationtechnologyindustryindustriesrepresent81%ofthesample;boththeprivatesectorandprivatesectorarewellrepresented,and;projectmanagersarepredominant,representing53%ofthesample.Thissampleisconsideredappropriatebecause:

●respondentsprimarilycomefromtwodiverseprojectindustries’construction/engineeringandinformationtechnology-whereexperienceofprojectcostcontingencycouldbereasonablyexpected.

●thereisgoodrepresentationfromboththeprivateandpublicsector.

●thesamplerepresentsarangeofprojectpositions,particularlyprojectmanagers,whichonewouldreasonablyexpecttohavesomeunderstandingand/orinvolvementintheapplicationofprojectcostcontingency.

Table1.Sample:

Industry,Sector,Position

Industry

Nr

%

Sector

Nr

%

Position

Nr

%

Construction/Engineering

33

42

Private

40

51

ProjectManager

41

53

InformationTechnology

30

39

Public

17

22

Engineer

11

14

Finance

5

6

Both

21

27

ITAnalyst/programmer

11

15

Others

10

13

CostEngineer/QS

5

6

Others

10

13

Total

78

100

Total

78

100

Total

78

100

RESULTSANDANALYSIS

Projectcostcontingency-Concepts

Anopenquestionwasset,“whatiscostcotingency”Table2setouttheresults.

Table2.“Whatiscostcontingency”

Concepts

Nr

%

Provision/reserve/allowance

57

73

Unexpected/unforeseen

22

28

Risk

16

20

Unknownunknowns

13

17

Knownunknowns

10

13

Underestimation

7

9

Undefined/insufficientscope

6

8

Costoverrun

6

8

Don’tknow

5

6

[Note:

conceptsidentifiedbytwoorlessrespondentsnotrecorded;%doesnottotal100asrespondentsstatedmorethanoneconcept]

Reserve

Themoststronglyidentifiedconceptlinkedtoprojectcostcontingencyisthatitisareserveofmoney（73%ofrespondents）.Thiscomponentiswellacknowledgedintheliterature,wherenumerousdefinitionsofprojectcostcontingencyrefertoareserveofmoney.Forexample,contingencyhasbeendefinedasanamountofmoneyaddedtotheestimatetoallowforchangesthatexperienceshowswilllikelyberequired（AACE1992）;and,aspecificprovisionofmoneyinanestimateforundefineditemswhichstatisticalstudiesofhistoricaldatahaveshownwilllikelyberequired（Clark&Lorenzoni1985）.Thestrongsupportfortheconceptofprojectcostcontingencybeingareserveofmoneysuggestsitiswidelyacceptedandperhapstheprimaryunderstandingforthisconcept.

RiskandUncertainty

Arangeofconceptslinkedtoriskanduncertaintywereidentifiedbytherespondents:

●Unexpected/unforeseen-28%ofrespondentsidentifiedtheconceptofprojectcostcontingencybeinglinkedtofactorsthatareuncertain.Thisperspectiveiswellsupportedbytheliterature,whichstatedthatcontingencycatersforeventswithinthedefinedprojectscopethatareunforeseen（Moselhi1997,DeWeaver1997,Yeo1990）,unexpected（Maketal1998）,orunidentified（Levine1995）.

●Risk-20%ofrespondentsusedtheword“risk”whedefiningprojectcostcontingency.Thiskeyaspectisalsoacknowledgedintheliterature（egPMI2004,Thompson&Perry1992）.Contingencyhasbeendescribedasanantidotetorisk（Rosenau1992）.

●Unknowns-Respondentsstatedthatprojectcostcontingencycateredforunknownunknowns（17%）andknownunknowns（13%）.Theseresponsesindicateamoresophisticatedappreciationoftheconceptofprojectcostcontingency.Theliteratureproposesthatcontingencycatersfortwocategoriesoftypesofunknowns-knownunknownsandunknownunknowns（e.g.Carr1989,Hillson1999）.Knownunknownsarerisksthathavebeenidentified,analysed,anditmaybepossibletoplanforthem（PMI2004）.Unknownunknownscannotbemanaged,soprojectmanagersmayaddressthembyapplyingageneralcontingency（PMI2004）.Soitisimportanttoidentifycontingencyassociatedwithallsignificantindividualrisks（knownunknowns）,plusaresidualallowanceforotherunidentifiedrisks（Chapman1994）.

SpecificRisks

Somerespondentsbelievethatconceptofcostcontingencycatersforspecificrisks.9%ofrespondentsconsiderthatcontingencycatersforunderestimatingorerrorsinestimating.Howeverisgenerallyadvisedthatcontingencyshouldnottobeusedtoavoidmakinganaccurateassessmentofexpectedcosts（Lorance&Wendling2001,Humphreys1991）.Furthermore,theresponsessetoutlaterinthispaper（Table3）supportthisopposingviewthaterrorsinestimatingarenotwithinthescopeofprojectcostcontingency.

9%ofrespondentsconsideredthatcontingencycatersforunderestimationduetotheincompletescopedefinitionatthetimeofestimating.Thisisstronglysupportedintheliterature,whichacknowledgesthatcontingencycatersforfutureprojectdefinitionsoitisprovidedforthisfurtherincreaseincostsduetothepresentincompletedefinitionoftheproject（e.g.Yeo1990）.

Effect

Eightpercent（8%）ofrespondentsdefinedprojectcostcontingencyintermsoftheeffectsitismeanttocoverfori.e.costoverruns.Itmaybeimpliedthattheserespondentsacknowledgethatbudgetsinvariablyexperienceoverrunsandcontingencyistheretocaterfortheseoverruns.Thisperspectiveisovertlyrecognisedintheliteratureinvariousways,suchasMak&Picken’s（2000）viewthatcontingencyshouldcaterforcontractvariations;orthecalculationofcontingencybasedonaprobabilisticlevelofcostoverrunbeyondabudgetbaselinetypicallyderivedthroughMonteCarlosimulation（egClark2001,Wendling2001）.

Insummary,theconceptthatprojectcostcontingencyisareserveofmoneythatshouldnotbeusedforscopechangesiswellsupportedbytheliteratureandtheresultsfromthisresearch.Furthermorethereisastrongconsensusthatcontingencyreflectsarangeofriskanduncertaintyconcepts.Howeveritisworthemphasisingthatonly20%ofresponsesusedtheword“risk”indescribingtheirunderstandingoftheconceptofprojectcostcontingency.Riskisakeyaspectofprojectcostcontingencyasevidencedbyt