本科毕业设计外文文献.docx

1、本科毕业设计外文文献本科毕业设计外文文献及译文文献、资料题目：Understanding Project Cost Contingency - A Survey文献、资料来源：The Queensland University of Technology Research Week International Conference文献、资料发表（出版）日期：2014.7.8院 （部）：管理工程学院专 业：工程造价班 级姓 名：学 号：指导教师：翻译日期：外文文献：Understanding Project Cost Contingency - A SurveyDavid BaccariniDe

2、partment of Construction Management, Curtin University of Technology, PO BoxU1987, Perth 6845, Western Australia, Australia.ABSTRACT Patrascu (1988) observed nearly two decades ago that contingency is probably the most misunderstood, misinterpreted, and misapplied word in project execution. Since th

3、at time there has been little empirical research into project peoples understanding of the concept of project cost contingency. This paper reports the results of a survey of 78 project practitioners comprehensionof issues pertaining to project cost contingency. Whilst there is consensus that cost co

4、ntingency is a reserve of money which should be used for scope changes, a key finding is that there is a lack of appreciation that project cost contingency is a risk management notion. Consequently, the majority of practitioners (77%) continue to use a deterministic percentage approach for estimatin

5、g project cost contingency. Furthermore, 46% of respondents work in organisations that do not have a policy on contingency and 36% do not manage the use of contingency.Overall, this suggests there is significant room for improvement in the understanding, estimation and management of project cost con

6、tingency. Keywords: contingency, project risk management.INTRODUCTION There are three basic types of contingencies in projects: tolerance in the specification; float in the schedule; and, money in the budget (CIRIA 1996). It is the latter -projectcost contingency- that isthe focus of the research re

7、ported in this paper. The cost performance of building construction projects is a key success criterion for project sponsors. Projects require budgets to set the sponsors financial commitmentand provide the basis for cost control and measurement of cost performance. A key component of a project budg

8、et is cost contingency. Project cost contingency has been a part of projects and project management for at least fifty years (RICS 1948) and probably much longer. Most textbooks on project management and in particular project cost management invariably contain some reference to project cost continge

9、ncy (eg PMI 2004). Despite the ubiquity of project cost contingency in the theory of project cost management, there has been little empirical research into project practitionersunderstanding of the concept, its intended scope, methods of estimating or management. Patrascu (1988) observed that contin

10、gency is probably the most misunderstood, misinterpreted, and misapplied word in project execution. Contingency can and does mean different things to different people. It is important to investigate this understanding because contingency is a ubiquitous factor in projects and peoples understanding o

11、f the concept will affect how contingency is managed. RESEARCH DESIGN A survey instrument was developed from the project cost contingency literature, containing open and closed questions. The author presented a refereed conference paper on project cost contingency at a project management conference

12、in Melbourne in August 2004. The conference participants attending the presentation were the research sample. Prior to the presentation of the paper the audience were requested to complete the questionnaire on project cost contingency and 78 responses were received and analysed. Table 1 shows the de

13、mographic details for the research sample. Key observations are that construction/engineering and information technology industry industries represent 81% of the sample; both the private sector and private sector are well represented, and; project managers are predominant, representing 53% of the sa

14、mple. This sample is considered appropriate because: respondents primarily come from two diverse project industriesconstruction/engineering and information technology - where experience of project cost contingency could be reasonably expected. there is good representation from both the private and p

15、ublic sector. the sample represents a range of project positions, particularly project managers, which one would reasonably expect to have some understanding and/or involvement in the application of project cost contingency. Table 1. Sample: Industry, Sector, PositionIndustryNr%SectorNr%PositionNr%C

16、onstruction/Engineering3342Private4051Project Manager4153Information Technology3039Public1722Engineer1114Finance56Both2127IT Analyst/programmer1115Others1013Cost Engineer/QS56Others1013Total78100Total78100Total78100RESULTS AND ANALYSIS Project cost contingency - Concepts An open question was set, “w

17、hat is cost cotingency” Table 2 set out the results. Table 2. “What iscost contingency”ConceptsNr%Provision/reserve/allowance5773Unexpected/unforeseen2228Risk1620Unknown unknowns1317Known unknowns1013Underestimation79Undefined/insufficient scope68Cost overrun68Dont know56Note: concepts identified by

18、 two or less respondents not recorded; % does not total 100 as respondents stated more than one conceptReserve The most strongly identified concept linked to project cost contingency is that it is a reserve of money (73% of respondents). This component is well acknowledged in the literature, where n

19、umerous definitions of project cost contingency refer to a reserve of money. For example, contingency has been defined as an amount of money added to the estimate to allow for changes that experience shows will likely be required (AACE 1992); and, a specific provision of money in an estimate for und

20、efined items which statistical studies of historical data have shown will likely be required (Clark & Lorenzoni 1985). The strong support for the concept of project cost contingency being a reserve of money suggests it is widely accepted and perhaps the primary understanding for this concept. Risk a

21、nd Uncertainty A range of concepts linked to risk and uncertainty were identified by the respondents: Unexpected/unforeseen - 28% of respondents identified the concept of project cost contingency being linked to factors that are uncertain. This perspective is well supported by the literature, which

22、stated that contingency caters for events within the defined project scope that are unforeseen (Moselhi 1997, De Weaver 1997, Yeo 1990), unexpected (Mak et al 1998), or unidentified (Levine 1995). Risk - 20% of respondents used theword “risk” whe defining project cost contingency. This key aspect is

23、 also acknowledged in the literature (eg PMI 2004, Thompson & Perry 1992). Contingency has been described as an antidote to risk (Rosenau 1992). Unknowns - Respondents stated that project cost contingency catered for unknown unknowns (17%) and known unknowns (13%). These responses indicate a more so

24、phisticated appreciation of the concept of project cost contingency. The literature proposes that contingency caters for two categories of types of unknowns - known unknowns and unknown unknowns (e.g. Carr 1989, Hillson 1999). Known unknowns are risks that have been identified, analysed, and it may

25、be possible to plan for them (PMI 2004). Unknown unknowns cannot be managed, so project managers may address them by applying a general contingency (PMI 2004). So it is important to identify contingency associated with all significant individual risks (known unknowns), plus a residual allowance for

26、other unidentified risks (Chapman 1994).Specific Risks Some respondents believe that concept of cost contingency caters for specific risks. 9% of respondents consider that contingency caters for underestimating or errors in estimating. However is generally advised that contingency should not to be u

27、sed to avoid making an accurate assessment of expected costs (Lorance & Wendling 2001, Humphreys 1991). Furthermore, the responses set out later in this paper (Table 3) support this opposing view that errors in estimating are not within the scope of project cost contingency. 9% of respondents consid

28、ered that contingency caters for underestimation due to the incomplete scope definition at the time of estimating. This is strongly supported in the literature, which acknowledges that contingency caters for future project definition so it is provided for this further increase in costs due to the pr

29、esent incomplete definition of the project (e.g. Yeo 1990). Effect Eight percent (8%) of respondents defined project cost contingency in terms of the effects it is meant to cover for i.e. cost overruns. It may be implied that these respondents acknowledge that budgets invariably experience overruns

30、and contingency is there to cater for these overruns. This perspective is overtly recognised in the literature in various ways, such as Mak & Pickens (2000) view thatcontingency should cater for contract variations;or the calculation of contingency based on a probabilistic level of cost overrun beyo

31、nd a budget baseline typically derived through Monte Carlo simulation (eg Clark 2001, Wendling 2001). In summary, the concept that project cost contingency is a reserve of money that should not be used for scope changes is well supported by the literature and the results from this research. Furtherm

32、ore there is a strong consensus that contingency reflects a range of risk and uncertainty concepts. However it is worth emphasising that only 20% of responses used the word “risk”in describing their understanding of the concept of project cost contingency. Risk is a key aspect of project cost contingency as evidenced by t