fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析.docx

fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析.docx

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fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析

中文3415字

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目：

Impactofforeigndirectinvestmentandtradeoneconomicgrowth:

evidencefromdevelopingcountries

出处：

AmericanJournalofAgriculturalEconomics,Vol.86

Issue3

作者：

Makki,ShivaS.,Somwaru,Agapi

原文：

IMPACTOFFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTAND

TRADEONECONOMICGROWTH:

EVIDENCE

FROMDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES

Foreigndirectinvestment（FDI）andtradeareoftenseenasimportantcatalystsforeconomicgrowthinthedevelopingcountries.FDIisanimportantvehicleoftechnologytransferfromdevelopedcountriestodevelopingcountries.FDIalsostimulatesdomesticinvestmentandfacilitatesimprovementsinhumancapitalandinstitutionsinthehostcountries.Internationaltradeisalsoknowntobeaninstrumentofeconomicgrowth（Romer）.TradefacilitatesmoreefficientproductionofgoodsandservicesbyshiftingproductiontocountriesthathavecomparativeadvantageinproducingThem.EventhoughpaststudiesshowthatFDIandtradehaveapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowth,thesizeofsuchimpactmayvaryacrosscountriesdependingonthelevelofhumancapital,domesticinvestment,infrastructure,macroeconomicstability,andtradepolicies.TheliteraturecontinuestodebatetheroleofFDIandtradeineconomicgrowthaswellastheimportanceofeconomicandinstitutionaldevelopmentsinfosteringFDIandtrade.

ThisarticleanalyzestheroleofFDIandtradeinpromotingeconomicgrowthacrossselecteddevelopingcountriesandtheinteractionamongFDI,trade,andeconomicgrowth.Weexaminedatafromsixty-sixdevelopingcountriesoverthelastthreedecades.OurresultssuggestthatFDI,trade,humancapital,anddomesticinvestmentareimportantsourcesofeconomicgrowthfordevelopingcountries.WefindastrongpositiveinteractionbetweenFDIandtradeinadvancingeconomicgrowth.OurresultsalsoshowthatFDIstimulatesdomesticinvestment.ThecontributionofFDItoeconomicgrowthisenhancedbyitspositiveinteractionwithhumancapitalandsoundmacroeconomicpolicies.

MethodologyandData

Oureconometricmodelisderivedfromaproductionfunctioninwhichthelevelofacountry’sproductivitydependsonFDI,trade,domesticinvestment,humancapital,andinitialgrossdomesticproduct（GDP）percapita.Themodelisbasedonendogenousgrowththeory,inthetraditionofBalasubramanyam,Salisu,andSapsfordandBorensztein,Gregorio,andLee,whereFDIcontributestoeconomicgrowthdirectlythroughnewtechnologiesandotherinputsaswellasindirectlythroughimprovinghumancapital,infrastructure,andinstitutions.ToassessempiricallytheeffectsofFDIandtradeoneconomicgrowth,wespecifythefollowingbasicformulation:

g=a+b1FDI+b2TRD+b3HC+b4K+b5G0

+c1FDI

TRD+c2FDI

HC+c3FDI

K

（1）

+d1TRI+d2TX+d3GC+e

wheregisthepercapitaGDPgrowthrate;TRD,thetrade（exportsplusimports）ofgoodsandservices;HC,thestockofhumancapital;K,thedomesticcapitalinvestment;G0,theinitialGDP（initialstock）;IRT,theinflationrate;TX,thetaxonincome,profits,andcapitalgainsinthehostcountryexpressedaspercentageofcurrentrevenue;andGCisgovernmentconsumption.ThevariablesFDI,TRD,K,GCaremeasuredasratiostoGDP.WealsoaccountforinteractionofFDIwithtradeanddomesticinvestment,inadditiontohumancapital.PastempiricalstudieshaveindicatedthatFDI,trade,humancapital,anddomesticinvestmenthaveapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries.Weexpecttheestimatedcoefficientsforthesevariablestobepositive.WealsoexpectpositiveinteractionsbetweenFDIandtradeandFDIanddomesticcapitalinvestmentinpromotingeconomicgrowth.

Thestockofhumancapitalinahostcountryiscriticalforabsorbingforeignknowledgeandanimportantdeterminantofwhetherpotentialspilloverswillberealized.WepostulatenotonlyapositiverelationshipbetweenFDIandtheGDPgrowthratebutalsoapositiveinteractionbetweenFDIandhumancapitalinadvancingeconomicgrowth.TheapplicationofadvancedtechnologiesembodiedinFDIrequiresasufficientlevelofhumancapital.Thatis,thehigherthelevelofhumancapitalinahostcountry,thehighertheeffectofFDIonthecountry’seconomicgrowth.OneofthekeyquestionsregardingFDIandeconomicgrowthis:

“WhatistheinteractionbetweenFDIanddomesticinvestment”?

Asarguedbefore,FDIisanimportantvehicleforthetransferofcapital,technology,andknowledgetohostcountries,therebygeneratinghigh-growthopportunities.Inpractice,however,thegrowth-enhancingimpactofFDIdependscriticallyontheabsorptivecapacityofahostcountryandwhetherFDI“crowdsout”itsdomesticinvestment.Thus,animportantquestiontobeaddressedis:

“WhatistheextenttowhichFDIsubstitutesfororcomplementsdomesticinvestment”?

Inourempiricalmodel,weincludeFDIanddomesticinvestmentseparatelyaswellasaninteractiontermbetweenFDIanddomesticinvestment（FDI

K）.ApositivecoefficientfortheinteractiontermwouldsuggestthatFDIanddomesticinvestment（K）reinforce（complement）eachotherinadvancingeconomicgrowth.TheinitialGDP,measuredintermsofconstantU.S.dollars,controlsforpreexistingeconomicandinstitutionalconditionsinthehosteconomy.WeexpecttheinitialGDP（expressedinlogarithms）tobenegativelyrelatedwithGDPgrowthrates.Theinflationrateisakeyindicatoroffiscalandmonetarypoliciesofacountry.Alowerinflationrateshouldmeanabetterclimateforinvestment,trade,and,therefore,economicgrowth.Governmentconsumptionandtaxonincome,profits,andcapitalgainsareproxiesforinstitutionsandinfrastructureinthehostcountries.SinceourobjectiveistoquantifytheeffectsofFDIandtradeoneconomicgrowth,wefocusondevelopingCountries.

DataforouranalysisareobtainedfromtheWorldDevelopmentIndicators（WDI）database.However,welimitouranalysisto1971through2000becausetheflowofFDItomostdevelopingcountriesbeganin1970s.Allvariablesrepresenttheaverageoverthefollowingdecades:

1971–1980,1981–1990,and1991–2000.

Weestimateasystemofthreeequations,wherethedependentvariablesarethemeanvaluesofpercapitaGDPgrowthratesineachdecade.Weestimatethesystemofequationsusingtheseeminglyunrelatedregression（SUR）methodaswellasinstrumentalvariable（three-stageleastsquares,TSLS）approach.TheSURestimationallowsfordifferenterrorvariancesineachequationandforcorrelationoftheseerrorsacrossequations,whiletheinstrumentalvariabletechniqueallowsustoovercomepotentialbiasesinducedbyendogeneityproblemsbetweenFDIandeconomicgrowth.

EmpiricalResults

ThepurposeofourempiricalinvestigationistoanalyzetheeffectsofFDIandtradeoneconomicgrowthandtoexaminehowFDIinteractswithtrade,humancapital,anddomesticinvestmentinadvancingeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries.WecontrolforpreexistingeconomicconditionsbyincludinginitialGDPasoneoftheexplanatoryvariables.Wealsoaccountfordifferencesinmacroeconomicpoliciesinthehostcountriesbyincludingvariables,suchasinflationrate,taxburden,andgovernmentconsumption.

Table1presentstheeconometricresults.Regressions1.1,1.2,and1.3,differentvariantsofequation

（1）aboveareestimatedusingtheSURmethod.Regression1.1isourbasicspecificationwithexplanatoryvariablesofFDI,trade,humancapital,domesticinvestment,andinitialGDP.Regression1.2extends1.1toincludeinteractionofFDIwithtrade,humancapital,anddomesticinvestment.Regression1.3buildsonregression1.2bycontrollingforinflationrate,taxburden,andgovernmentconsumption.Ourresultsshowthatmostcoefficientshavetheexpectedsigns,particularlyinspecification1.3.TheestimatedR2aregenerallylowbutreasonablegiventhecrosssectionalnatureofthedataused.

Regression1.1revealsthatFDIandtradehaveapositiveimpactoneconomicgrowthaftercontrollingforhumancapital,domesticinvestment,andinitialincome.TheestimatedcoefficientforFDIispositiveandstatisticallysignificantwhiletheestimatedcoefficientfortradeisnotstatisticallysignificant.SincethecoefficientofFDIislargerthanthecoefficientoftrade,itindicatesthedifferentialimpactofFDIinthehostcountry’seconomicgrowth.Thecoefficientforhumancapitalispositive,implyingthathumancapitalcontributespositivelytoeconomicgrowth（significantonlyataconfidencelevelof88%）.Thecoefficientsfordomesticinvestmentandinitialincomearenotstatisticallysignificant.IncludinginteractionsbetweenFDIandtrade,FDIandhumancapital,andFDIanddomesticinvestmentnotonlyimprovestheoverallperformanceoftheestimationbutalsoallowsusto

capturetheirinteractioneffectsoneconomicgrowth.Inregression1.2,theinteractionofFDIandtradeyieldsapositiveandstatisticallysignificantcoefficientwhiletheeffectsofFDIandtrade,bythemselves,arepositivebutnotstatisticallysignificant.Regression1.2alsorevealsthattheFDIinteractspositivelywithdomesticinvestmentinadvancingeconomicgrowth.Theestimatedcoefficientfordomesticinvestmentispositiveandstatisticallysignificantataconfidencelevelof90%.TheestimatedcoefficientsindicatethathostcountriesbenefitpositivelybothfromFDI,itself,andthroughFDI’spositiveinteractionwithtradeanddomesticinvestment.TheinteractionbetweenFDIandhumancapital,althoughpositive,isnotstatisticallysignificant.Regression1.3includesadditionalvariablestocontrolformacroeconomicpoliciesandinstitutionalstabilitythatcouldhaveasignificantimpactonFDIandtradeand,thus,oneconomicgrowth.