fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析.docx

1、fdi和贸易对经济增长的影响来自发展中国家的实证分析中文3415字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 处： American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 86 Issue 3 作 者： Makki, Shiva S.,Somwaru, Agapi 原 文：IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ANDTRADE O

2、N ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCEFROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIESForeign direct investment (FDI) and trade are often seen as important catalysts for economic growth in the developing countries. FDI is an important vehicle of technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. FDI also stimulate

3、s domestic investment and facilitates improvements in human capital and institutions in the host countries. International trade is also known to be an instrument of economic growth (Romer). Trade facilitates more efficient production of goods and services by shifting production to countries that hav

4、e comparative advantage in producing Them. Even though past studies show that FDI and trade have a positive impact on economic growth, the size of such impact may vary across countries depending on the level of human capital, domestic investment, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and trade po

5、licies. The literature continues to debate the role of FDI and trade in economic growth as well as the importance of economic and institutional developments in fostering FDI and trade.This article analyzes the role of FDI and trade in promoting economic growth across selected developing countries an

6、d the interaction among FDI, trade, and economic growth. We examine data from sixty-six developing countries over the last three decades. Our results suggest that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment are important sources of economic growth for developing countries. We find a strong po

7、sitive interaction between FDI and trade in advancing economic growth. Our results also show that FDI stimulates domestic investment. The contribution of FDI to economic growth is enhanced by its positive interaction with human capital and sound macroeconomic policies.Methodology and Data Our econom

8、etric model is derived from a production function in which the level of a countrys productivity depends on FDI, trade, domestic investment, human capital, and initial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The model is based on endogenous growth theory, in the tradition of Balasubramanyam, Salisu,

9、 and Sapsford and Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee, where FDI contributes to economic growth directly through new technologies and other inputs as well as indirectly through improving human capital, infrastructure, and institutions. To assess empirically the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth

10、, we specify the following basic formulation:g=a+b1FDI+b2TRD+b3HC+b4K+b5G0 +c1FDITRD+c2FDIHC+c3FDIK （1） +d1TRI+d2TX+d3GC+ewhere g is the per capita GDP growth rate; TRD, the trade (exports plus imports) of goods and services; HC, the stock of human capital; K, the domestic capital investment; G0, th

11、e initial GDP(initial stock); IRT, the inflation rate; TX, the tax on income, profits, and capital gains in the host country expressed as percentage of current revenue; and GC is government consumption. The variables FDI, TRD, K, GC are measured as ratios to GDP. We also account for interaction of F

12、DI with trade and domestic investment, in addition to human capital. Past empirical studies have indicated that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. We expect the estimated coefficients for these variables to be positiv

13、e. We also expect positive interactions between FDI and trade and FDI and domestic capital investment in promoting economic growth. The stock of human capital in a host country is critical for absorbing foreign knowledge and an important determinant of whether potential spillovers will be realized.

14、We postulate not only a positive relationship between FDI and the GDP growth rate but also a positive interaction between FDI and human capital in advancing economic growth. The application of advanced technologies embodied in FDI requires a sufficient level of human capital. That is, the higher the

15、 level of human capital in a host country, the higher the effect of FDI on the countrys economic growth. One of the key questions regarding FDI and economic growth is: “What is the interaction between FDI and domestic investment”? As argued before, FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of cap

16、ital, technology, and knowledge to host countries, thereby generating high-growth opportunities. In practice, however, the growth-enhancing impact of FDI depends critically on the absorptive capacity of a host country and whether FDI “crowds out” its domestic investment. Thus, an important question

17、to be addressed is: “What is the extent to which FDI substitutes for or complements domestic investment”? In our empirical model, we include FDI and domestic investment separately as well as an interaction term between FDI and domestic investment (FDIK). A positive coefficient for the interaction te

18、rm would suggest that FDI and domestic investment (K) reinforce (complement) each other in advancing economic growth. The initial GDP, measured in terms of constant U.S. dollars, controls for preexisting economic and institutional conditions in the host economy. We expect the initial GDP (expressed

19、in logarithms) to be negatively related with GDP growth rates. The inflation rate is a key indicator of fiscal and monetary policies of a country. A lower inflation rate should mean a better climate for investment, trade, and, therefore, economic growth. Government consumption and tax on income, pro

20、fits, and capital gains are proxies for institutions and infrastructure in the host countries. Since our objective is to quantify the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth, we focus on developing Countries. Data for our analysis are obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database

21、. However, we limit our analysis to 1971 through 2000 because the flow of FDI to most developing countries began in 1970s. All variables represent the average over the following decades: 19711980, 19811990, and 19912000.We estimate a system of three equations, where the dependent variables are the m

22、ean values of per capita GDP growth rates in each decade. We estimate the system of equations using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method as well as instrumental variable (three-stage least squares, TSLS) approach. The SUR estimation allows for different error variances in each equation an

23、d for correlation of these errors across equations, while the instrumental variable technique allows us to overcome potential biases induced by endogeneity problems between FDI and economic growth.Empirical Results The purpose of our empirical investigation is to analyze the effects of FDI and trade

24、 on economic growth and to examine how FDI interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investment in advancing economic growth in developing countries. We control for preexisting economic conditions by including initial GDP as one of the explanatory variables. We also account for differences i

25、n macroeconomic policies in the host countries by including variables, such as inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption.Table 1 presents the econometric results. Regressions 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, different variants of equation (1) above are estimated using the SUR method. Regression 1.1 i

26、s our basic specification with explanatory variables of FDI, trade, human capital, domestic investment, and initial GDP. Regression 1.2 extends 1.1 to include interaction of FDI with trade, human capital, and domestic investment. Regression 1.3 builds on regression 1.2 by controlling for inflation r

27、ate, tax burden, and government consumption. Our results show that most coefficients have the expected signs, particularly in specification 1.3. The estimated R2 are generally low but reasonable given the cross sectional nature of the data used.Regression 1.1 reveals that FDI and trade have a positi

28、ve impact on economic growth after controlling for human capital, domestic investment, and initial income. The estimated coefficient for FDI is positive and statistically significant while the estimated coefficient for trade is not statistically significant. Since the coefficient of FDI is larger th

29、an the coefficient of trade, it indicates the differential impact of FDI in the host countrys economic growth. The coefficient for human capital is positive, implying that human capital contributes positively to economic growth (significant only at a confidence level of 88%). The coefficients for do

30、mestic investment and initial income are not statistically significant. Including interactions between FDI and trade, FDI and human capital, and FDI and domestic investment not only improves the overall performance of the estimation but also allows us to capture their interaction effects on economic

31、 growth.In regression 1.2, the interaction of FDI and trade yields a positive and statistically significant coefficient while the effects of FDI and trade, by themselves, are positive but not statistically significant. Regression 1.2 also reveals that the FDI interacts positively with domestic inves

32、tment in advancing economic growth. The estimated coefficient for domestic investment is positive and statistically significant at a confidence level of 90%. The estimated coefficients indicate that host countries benefit positively both from FDI, itself, and through FDIs positive interaction with t

33、rade and domestic investment. The interaction between FDI and human capital, although positive, is not statistically significant. Regression 1.3 includes additional variables to control for macroeconomic policies and institutional stability that could have a significant impact on FDI and trade and, thus, on economic growth.