140505 MG.docx
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140505MG
140505MG
E-commerce
Same-daydreamers
Onlinefirmsareplungingintosame-daydeliveryagain
May3rd2014 | SANFRANCISCO | Fromtheprintedition
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Whenwesaynow,wemeannow
WHENveteransofthelastdotcomboomnamecompaniesthatepitomisetheexcessesofthelate1990s,theyinvariablyincludeWebvanandKintheirlists.Bothpromisedtomakeiteasyandcheapforpeopletoordergoodsonlineandhavethemdeliveredswiftly.Andbothfailedspectacularlyaftertheydiscoveredjusthowharditistomakemoneytryingtodeliverontightdeadlines.
Now,threeonlinegiantsthatsurvivedthedotcombustaretryingtosucceedwherethosetwofirmsfailed.Amazonisleadingthecharge.IthaslaunchedAmazonFresh,asame-daydeliveryservice,inSanFrancisco,LosAngelesandSeattle.“Placeyourorderby10amandhaveitbydinner,”itboasts.Theservice,whichoffersaselectionofover500,000itemsincludingperishablessuchasmilkandeggs,deliversitswaresingarishgreenvans.
Inthissection
∙Returnofthebigdeal
∙Heavymetal
∙Anewwrinkle
∙Whenitvereins,itpours
∙NewTube
∙Arevolutioninthemaking
∙Theglassprecipice
∙Same-daydreamers
∙Adventuresintheskintrade
Reprints
Relatedtopics
∙Google
∙LosAngeles
∙Seattle
∙SanFrancisco
∙Onlineretailing
GoogleandeBayareinthevanguardtoo.GoogleShoppingExpressofferssame-daydeliveryintheSanFranciscoBayArea,asdoeseBayNow,whichisalsoavailableinChicago,DallasandNewYork.Thetwofirmsareinpartnershipwithbigretailchainsandsmallerlocalshops,whichholdstockthattheycantapinto.
DeliverystartupssuchasInstacartandPostmatesarealsoworkingcloselywithretailerstoavoidthefateofWebvan,whichsquanderedafortunebuildingitsownwarehouses.Instacart,whichfocusesongroceries,reliesonfreelance“personalshoppers”whousetheirownvehiclestocollectanddelivergoods.AnInstacartsmartphoneapptellsthemwhichshopstovisit,whattopickupandwheretotakeit.Workingoutdeliveryschedulesandroutesis“areallychallengingdata-scienceproblem”,explainsApoorvaMehta,thefirm’sbossandaformerAmazonemployee.
Sofa-boundshoppersnowhaveaplethoraofoptions.InSanFranciscoandLosAngeles,Amazonoffersa30-dayfreetrialofAmazonFresh,afterwhichcustomerspay$299forayear’smembership.Membersgetfreeshippingonordersofmorethan$35.InSeattle,thereisnoannualfee,butordersworthlessthan$100incurcharges.GoogleShoppingExpress,whichhasamuchsmallerselectionofwares,isofferingasix-monthfreetrialwhileitdecideswhattocharge;andInstacartgivescustomersvariousoptions,includinga$3.99feefordeliveryinlessthantwohoursandanAmazon-like$99annualmembershipthateliminatesfeesonordersworthmorethan$35.
Yourcorrespondentplacedorderswithallthreeofthebigonlinefirms,andeverythingturnedupontimeandingoodcondition.Therewereonlyminorhitches.HisGoogleordercameintwoseparatedeliveries.AnditwasdifficulttofinddetailsonAmazonFresh’swebpageofhowadissatisfiedcustomercouldavoidincurringthe$299feeattheendofatrialperiod.(Amazon’scustomer-servicedepartmentrepliedpromptlywhene-mailedaskingforanexplanation.)
Mostcompetitorsinthesame-daybusinessarefocusingoncitieswithlotsofrichconsumerspreparedtopayfortime-savingservices.Butturningaprofitwillstillnotbeeasy.AndrewSchmahlofStrategy&,aconsultingfirm,saysasurveyof1,000Americanonlineshoppersitconductedlastyearshowedmostwerereluctanttopayanywherenearenoughtocoverthecostofspeedydeliveries.Thatmayexplainwhyotherretailershavebeenhesitanttoenterthebusiness.
FirmssuchasGoogleandAmazonmaybewillingtolosemoneyondeliveriesifthedatatheygleanaboutpeople’sshoppinghabitsletthemaimtheironlineadsmoreeffectively.AmazoncouldalsouseitsvanstodeliverpackagesthatitcurrentlysendsthroughcourierfirmssuchasUPS.Thee-commercegiantiscertainlydoingwhateveritcantomakeswiftonlineshoppingeasier.ItrecentlyunveiledtheDash,awand-likedevicethatletscustomersbuildtheironlineordersbyscanningbarcodesonemptypacketsorjars,orbyspeakingintothewand’sbuilt-inmicrophone.Thetrickwillbetoturnsuchtechwizardryintomagicalprofits.
PovertyinIndonesia
Mutedmusic
ThepoorarebenefitingrelativelylittlefromIndonesia’sgrowth
May3rd2014 | JAKARTA | Fromtheprintedition
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Manufacturingwouldpaymore
“JALANAN”,adocumentarybyaCanadiandirector,DanielZiv,tellsthestoriesofthreebuskerswhoplaymusicforsmallchangeonclapped-outbusesinJakarta,Indonesia’ssprawlingcapital.Oneofthem,Boni,livesinasewerthatrunsbeneathoneofthecity’sswankiestshoppingmalls.Thefilm,whichrecentlyopenedinJakarta,isapoignantreminderoftheglaringgapbetweenrichandpoorinSouth-EastAsia’slargesteconomy.
Indonesiahasgrownrapidlyinrecentyearsandlivingstandardshaveimproved.Onthebasisofpurchasing-powerparity(PPP),albeitnottheupdatedfiguresdiscussed here,grossnationalincomeperheaddoubledduringthedecadeto2012,to$4,730.Theproportionofthepopulationlivinginpovertyfellbyhalf,from24%in1999to12%in2012.McKinsey,aconsultingfirm,haspredictedthatthecountry’s“consumingclass”ofpeopleearningmorethan$3,600annuallywilltrebleto135mby2030(again,onaPPPbasisandadjustedforinflation).Thegrowingranksofconsumers,inturn,havepromptedaspurtofforeigninvestment.
Inthissection
∙Tippingthescales
∙Thetaxmanblustereth
∙Thedragontakeswing
∙Shocktherapy
∙Mutedmusic
∙Roundingdown
∙BiggerthanMarx
∙Corporatesardines
Reprints
Relatedtopics
∙WorldBank
∙Jakarta
∙EconomicInequality
∙Business
∙Economics
YetIndonesia’sgrowthhasbeenuneven.AccordingtoaforthcomingreportbytheWorldBank,realconsumptiongrewbyabout4%ayearonaveragein2003-10.Butforthepoorest40%ofhouseholdsitgrewbyonly1.3%.Incontrast,consumptionbytherichest20%grewby5.9%.Inotherwords,thericharegettingrichermuchmorerapidlythanthepoorare.At0.38in2011,Indonesia’sGinicoefficient,ameasureofincomeinequality,isinlinewiththatofotherdevelopingcountries.Butithasjumpedfrom0.29in2000.
Over3mmigrantsfromthecountrysidearriveeachyearinJakartaandothercities.Manyofthemendupwithjobsinlow-endservices,hawkingfoodbytheroadsideorsellingthingsfromhandcarts.Theyarepartofavastinformaleconomy,whichaccountsforsome70%ofGDP.Theyrarelyearntheofficialminimumwageandreceivefewgovernmentbenefits.
TheWorldBankestimatesthatlabourproductivityinIndonesia’slow-endservicesectorisaboutdoublethatinagriculture.Butitisstillonlyone-fifthofthatinmanufacturing.Inotherwords,povertyfallsaspeopleleavericefieldstoworkinlow-endservices,butitwouldfallmuchfasteriftheyweretofindjobsinfactoriesinstead.
ManufacturinginIndonesiaishamstrungbydecrepitinfrastructure,rigidlabourlawsandprotectionistpoliciesthatmakeitdifficultforitsfactoriestobecompetitive.EventhoughtheshareofIndonesia’slabourforceemployedinagriculturehasbeenindeclinefordecades,manufacturing’ssharehasnotchangedmuchatall,hoveringatabout13%.Andlocalmanufacturingremainsdominatedbytheprocessingofpalmoilandotherprimarycommodities.Incontrast,servicesnowemployabout44%ofthelabourforce,upfrom37%adecadeago.
Wideningaccesstothingslikewell-builthouses,cleanwaterandsanitation,alongwitheducationandhealthcare,mightslowlystarttosharetherewardsofIndonesia’srapideconomicgrowthmoreevenly.Indonesiahasincreaseditssocialspending.Ithasboldplanstointroduceuniversalhealthcareby2019,forexample.
Butgovernmentspendingisstillskewedtowardstherich.About20%ofthecentralgovernment’sbudget,or282trillionrupiah($24.5billion)thisyear,goesonenergysubsidies.Cheappetrolbenefitstherich,whoarethebiggestconsumers,morethanthepoor.Itsqueezesspendingonpublicservices,too.AccordingtotheWorldBank,gettingridoffuelsubsidies,whilereformingtaxesandcuttingspendingoncivilservants,wouldallowthegovernmenttodoublespendingoninfrastructure,healthandsocialwelfare.Thatwouldbebetterfortheenvironment,theeconomyandespeciallythepoor.
Freeexchange
Corporatesardines
Howincumbentfirmspackmarketstodeterentry
May3rd2014 | Fromtheprintedition
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THEmodernhighstreetcangiveanoverwhelmingsenseof déjàvu.FanstrundlingtothefootballstadiumofTottenhamHotspur,ateamfromnorthLondon,passsixWilliamHillbookmakersonthemainapproach.Touriststraipsingalongahalf-milestretchof23rdStreetinNewYorkpassfiveStarbucksoutlets.InTokyo,7-Elevenboasts15storeswithinasimilardistanceofShinjukustation.Thecrushofchainstoresfrustratesthosewholikeone-offboutiques.Economistsfretforanotherreason:
firmsmaybecrammingmarketsinordertokeeprivalsout.
Oneofthefirststudiesofthewayfirmscompeteforspacewaspublishedin1929byHaroldHotelling,thenofStanfordUniversity.Heshowedthatfirmsfacetrade-offs:
locatetooneararivalandferociouscompetitionhitsprofits;edgetoofarawayandtoolargeachunkofthemarketislost.Sincethetrade-offwillvarybymarket,Hotelling’stheoryexplainedwhyfirmsinsomeindustriescluster,whileothersscatter.
Inthissection
∙Tippingthescales
∙Thetaxmanblustereth
∙Thedragontakeswing
∙Shocktherapy