The AI Revolution Part 1.docx

The AI Revolution Part 1.docx

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TheAIRevolutionPart1

TheAIRevolution:

TheRoadtoSuperintelligence（Part1）

January22,2015ByTimUrban

Note:

 ThereasonthisposttookthreeweekstofinishisthatasIdugintoresearchonArtificialIntelligence,Icouldnot believe whatIwasreading.Ithitmeprettyquicklythatwhat’shappeningintheworldofAIisnotjustanimportanttopic,butbyfarTHEmostimportanttopicforourfuture.SoIwantedtolearnasmuchasIcouldaboutit,andonceIdidthat,IwantedtomakesureIwroteapostthatreallyexplainedthiswholesituationandwhyitmatterssomuch.Notshockingly,thatbecameoutrageouslylong,soIbrokeitintotwoparts.ThisisPart1.

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WeareontheedgeofchangecomparabletotheriseofhumanlifeonEarth. —VernorVinge

Whatdoesitfeelliketostandhere?

Itseemslikeaprettyintenseplacetobestanding—butthenyouhavetoremembersomethingaboutwhatit’sliketostandonatimegraph:

youcan’tseewhat’stoyourright.Sohere’showitactuallyfeelstostandthere:

Whichprobablyfeelsprettynormal…

TheFarFuture—ComingSoon

Imaginetakingatimemachinebackto1750—atimewhentheworldwasinapermanentpoweroutage,long-distancecommunicationmeanteitheryellingloudlyorfiringacannonintheair,andalltransportationranonhay.Whenyougetthere,youretrieveadude,bringhimto2015,andthenwalkhimaroundandwatchhimreacttoeverything.It’simpossibleforustounderstandwhatitwouldbelikeforhimtoseeshinycapsulesracingbyonahighway,talktopeoplewhohadbeenontheothersideoftheoceanearlierintheday,watchsportsthatwerebeingplayed1,000milesaway,hearamusicalperformancethathappened50yearsago,andplaywithmymagicalwizardrectanglethathecouldusetocaptureareal-lifeimageorrecordalivingmoment,generateamapwithaparanormalmovingbluedotthatshowshimwhereheis,lookatsomeone’sfaceandchatwiththemeventhoughthey’reontheothersideofthecountry,andworldsofotherinconceivablesorcery.ThisisallbeforeyoushowhimtheinternetorexplainthingsliketheInternationalSpaceStation,theLargeHadronCollider,nuclearweapons,orgeneralrelativity.

Thisexperienceforhimwouldn’tbesurprisingorshockingorevenmind-blowing—thosewordsaren’tbigenough.Hemightactuallydie.

Buthere’stheinterestingthing—ifhethenwentbackto1750andgotjealousthatwegottoseehisreactionanddecidedhewantedtotrythesamething,he’dtakethetimemachineandgobackthesamedistance,getsomeonefromaroundtheyear1500,bringhimto1750,andshowhimeverything.Andthe1500guywouldbeshockedbyalotofthings—buthewouldn’tdie.Itwouldbe far lessofaninsaneexperienceforhim,becausewhile1500and1750wereverydifferent,theywere much lessdifferentthan1750to2015.The1500guywouldlearnsomemind-bendingshitaboutspaceandphysics,he’dbeimpressedwithhowcommittedEuropeturnedouttobewiththatnewimperialismfad,andhe’dhavetodosomemajorrevisionsofhisworldmapconception.Butwatchingeverydaylifegobyin1750—transportation,communication,etc.—definitelywouldn’tmakehimdie.

No,inorderforthe1750guytohaveasmuchfunaswehadwithhim,he’dhavetogomuchfartherback—maybeallthewaybacktoabout12,000BC,beforetheFirstAgriculturalRevolutiongaverisetothefirstcitiesandtotheconceptofcivilization.Ifsomeonefromapurelyhunter-gathererworld—fromatimewhenhumanswere,moreorless,justanotheranimalspecies—sawthevasthumanempiresof1750withtheirtoweringchurches,theirocean-crossingships,theirconceptofbeing“inside,”andtheirenormousmountainofcollective,accumulatedhumanknowledgeanddiscovery—he’dlikelydie.

Andthenwhatif,afterdying, he gotjealousandwantedtodothesamething.Ifhewentback12,000yearsto24,000BCandgotaguyandbroughthimto12,000BC,he’dshowtheguyeverythingandtheguywouldbelike,“Okaywhat’syourpointwhocares.”Forthe12,000BCguytohavethesamefun,he’dhavetogobackover100,000yearsandgetsomeonehecouldshowfireandlanguagetoforthefirsttime.

Inorderforsomeonetobetransportedintothefutureanddiefromthelevelofshockthey’dexperience,theyhavetogoenoughyearsaheadthata“dielevelofprogress,”oraDieProgressUnit（DPU）hasbeenachieved.SoaDPUtookover100,000yearsinhunter-gatherertimes,butatthepost-AgriculturalRevolutionrate,itonlytookabout12,000years.Thepost-IndustrialRevolutionworldhasmovedsoquicklythata1750persononlyneedstogoforwardacouplehundredyearsforaDPUtohavehappened.

Thispattern—humanprogressmovingquickerandquickerastimegoeson—iswhatfuturistRayKurzweilcallshumanhistory’sLawofAcceleratingReturns.Thishappensbecausemoreadvancedsocietieshavetheabilitytoprogressatafaster rate thanlessadvancedsocieties—because they’remoreadvanced.19thcenturyhumanityknewmoreandhadbettertechnologythan15thcenturyhumanity,soit’snosurprisethathumanitymadefarmoreadvancesinthe19thcenturythaninthe15thcentury—15thcenturyhumanitywasnomatchfor19thcenturyhumanity.11←openthese

Thisworksonsmallerscalestoo.Themovie BacktotheFuture cameoutin1985,and“thepast”tookplacein1955.Inthemovie,whenMichaelJ.Foxwentbackto1955,hewascaughtoff-guardbythenewnessofTVs,thepricesofsoda,thelackofloveforshrillelectricguitar,andthevariationinslang.Itwasadifferentworld,yes—butifthemovieweremadetodayandthepasttookplacein1985,themoviecouldhavehad much morefunwith much biggerdifferences.Thecharacterwouldbeinatimebeforepersonalcomputers,internet,orcellphones—today’sMartyMcFly,ateenagerborninthelate90s,wouldbemuchmoreoutofplacein1985thanthemovie’sMartyMcFlywasin1955.

Thisisforthesamereasonwejustdiscussed—theLawofAcceleratingReturns.Theaveragerateofadvancementbetween1985and2015washigherthantheratebetween1955and1985—becausetheformerwasamoreadvancedworld—somuchmorechangehappenedinthemostrecent30yearsthanintheprior30.

So—advancesaregettingbiggerandbiggerandhappeningmoreandmorequickly.Thissuggestssomeprettyintensethingsaboutourfuture,right?

Kurzweilsuggeststhattheprogressoftheentire20thcenturywouldhavebeenachievedinonly20yearsattherateofadvancementintheyear2000—inotherwords,by2000,therateofprogresswasfivetimesfasterthanthe average rateofprogressduringthe20thcentury.Hebelievesanother20thcentury’sworthofprogresshappenedbetween2000and2014andthat another 20thcentury’sworthofprogresswillhappenby2021,inonlysevenyears.Acoupledecadeslater,hebelievesa20thcentury’sworthofprogresswillhappenmultipletimesinthesameyear,andevenlater,inlessthanonemonth.Allinall,becauseoftheLawofAcceleratingReturns,Kurzweilbelievesthatthe21stcenturywillachieve 1,000times theprogressofthe20thcentury.2

IfKurzweilandotherswhoagreewithhimarecorrect,thenwemaybeasblownawayby2030asour1750guywasby2015—i.e.thenextDPUmightonlytakeacoupledecades—andtheworldin2050mightbe so vastlydifferentthantoday’sworldthatwewouldbarelyrecognizeit.

Thisisn’tsciencefiction.It’swhatmanyscientistssmarterandmoreknowledgeablethanyouorIfirmlybelieve—andifyoulookathistory,it’swhatweshouldlogicallypredict.

Sothenwhy,whenyouhearmesaysomethinglike“theworld35yearsfromnowmightbetotallyunrecognizable,”areyouthinking,“Cool….butnahhhhhhh”?

Threereasonswe’reskepticalofoutlandishforecastsofthefuture:

1）Whenitcomestohistory,wethinkinstraightlines. Whenweimaginetheprogressofthenext30years,welookbacktotheprogressoftheprevious30asanindicatorofhowmuchwilllikelyhappen.Whenwethinkabouttheextenttowhichtheworldwillchangeinthe21stcentury,wejusttakethe20thcenturyprogressandaddittotheyear2000.Thiswasthesamemistakeour1750guymadewhenhegotsomeonefrom1500andexpectedtoblowhismindasmuchashisownwasblowngoingthesamedistanceahead.It’smostintuitiveforustothink linearly, whenweshouldbethinkingexponentially.Ifsomeoneisbeingmorecleveraboutit,theymightpredicttheadvancesofthenext30yearsnotbylookingattheprevious30years,butbytakingthe current rateofprogressandjudgingbasedonthat.They’dbemoreaccurate,butstillwayoff.Inordertothinkaboutthefuturecorrectly,youneedtoimaginethingsmovingata muchfasterrate thanthey’removingnow.

2）Thetrajectoryofveryrecenthistoryoftentellsadistortedstory. First,evenasteepexponentialcurveseemslinearwhenyouonlylookatatinysliceofit,thesamewayifyoulookatalittlesegmentofahugecircleupclose,itlooksalmostlikeastraightline.Second,exponentialgrowthisn’ttotallysmoothanduniform.Kurzweilexplainsthatprogresshappensin“S-curves”:

AnSiscreatedbythewaveofprogresswhenanewparadigmsweepstheworld.Thecurvegoesthroughthreephases:

1.Slowgrowth（theearlyphaseofexponentialgrowth）

2.Rapidgrowth（thelate,explosivephaseofexponentialgrowth）

3.Alevelingoffastheparticularparadigmmatures3

Ifyoulookonlyatveryrecenthistory,thepartoftheS-curveyou’reonatthemomentcanobscureyourperceptionofhowfastthingsareadvancing.Thechunkoftimebetween1995and2007sawtheexplosionoftheinternet,theintroductionofMicrosoft,Google,andFacebookintothepublicconsciousness,thebirthofsocialnetworking,andtheintro