CMDPaperforANUP.docx

CMDPaperforANUP.docx

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CMDPaperforANUP

InevitabilityofNuclearPowerintheAsianRegion

Dr.S.K.Jain

Chairman&ManagingDirector

NPCIL&BHAVINI

Abstract

TheAsianregion,mostpopulousandfastestgrowingintermsofeconomicgrowth,hascountrieswithlowestpercapitaenergy/electricityconsumption.BarringtheMiddleEast,therestoftheregionis,byandlarge,modestinconventionalenergyresources.Thisisalsoaregionwherelargesectionsofpopulationsufferfromincomeinequalityandinadequateeconomicdevelopment.Economicgrowthandqualityoflifeofapopulationdependheavilyonpercapitaavailabilityofenergy/electricity,andthusthereisanurgentneedtoincreasethepercapitaelectricityproduction/consumptionintheregion.Unlikeinthepast,itistheAsianregionthatispoisedtodwarfthetoday’sdevelopedworldinnewcapacityadditioninthecomingyears.Thisfactaloneasksforsensiblechoicestobemade.Also,theAsianregionisquitevulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange,giventhegeographyandpopulationdistribution.Today,governmentsmustseriouslyconsidertheenvironmentalimpactofelectricitygeneration,inordertohelpmitigateglobalwarminganditsconsequences.Nuclearpower,beingenvironmentallybenign,affordssustainabilityattheveryoutset.Butthat’snotall.Theothercompellingreasonsinfavourofnuclearpowerareitscompactnatureasasourceofenergyandthepromiseoflong-termenergysecurity.Nuclearpoweris,therefore,inevitablefortheregion.Recognisingthis,therapidlydevelopingcountriesintheregion–suchasIndiaandChina–arepursuingambitiousnuclearpowerprogrammes,whileseveralothercountriesintheregionarealsoplanningtoembarkonthenuclearpowerrouteforelectricitygeneration.

Asnuclearpowerisinherentlytechnology-intensive,thereisaneedforgreatercooperation,toreachouttocountriesthatpresentlydonothavethetechnologybaseforstartingnuclearpowerprogrammesontheirown.Eveninthecountrieswithestablishedcommercialnuclearpowerprogrammes,thereisaneedtoreachouttothepeopletodemonstratethemerits,safetyaspectsandeconomiccompetitivenessofnuclearpower,andalsotheroleofnuclearpowerinthepreservationoftheenvironment.Theimperativesofthecurrentscenariowarrantbuildingconfidenceamongthepeopleregardingnuclearpowerthroughsharingofcredibleinformationonallitsaspectstoremovemisconceptions.Thispaperdescribesthecurrentscenario,keyissues,challengesandpossiblewaystoaddressthem.ThepaperalsobrieflydescribestheIndiannuclearpowerprogrammeforbeingthesecond-mostaggressiveplayerinthenucleararenainthisregion,afterChina.

1.0Introduction

TheAsiancontinentisthelargestintheworldintermsofbotharea,（about45millionsquarekilometers）andpopulation,estimatedat4121million（2009）,ofthetotalworldpopulationof6829million,constitutingabout60%.ItisgeographicallydiverseandhasdistinctgeographicalregionslikeSouthAsia（IndianSubcontinent）,EastAsia,SoutheastAsia,MiddleEast,CentralAsiaandEurasia（areaunderRussianFederation）.Ingeneral,theMiddleEastandEurasiaarereferredtoseparately,whiletheAsianregionpredominantlyreferstotheremainingareasofthecontinent.

Ithasthetwobiggestcountriesintermsofpopulation,ChinaandIndia,whichconstituteabout37%oftheworldpopulation.Alargepopulationoftheregionhasaverylowpercapitaincomeofabout$3000（PPP）.Inviewofthis,manyofthecountiesintheAsianregionrankverylowonthehumandevelopmentindex（HDI）.However,thedevelopmentgoalsofthecountriesintheregionneedthemtobeonapathofrapideconomicgrowth.Thevariouspoliciesofmostnationsoftheregionaredirectedatensuringafasteconomicgrowthratetoachievetheirdevelopmentgoals.

ChinaandIndiaaretheworld’ssecond-andthird-largesteconomiesinPurchasingPowerParity（PPP）terms.Theyarealsoamongthefastest-growingeconomies,growingataround7to10%everyyear.TheothereconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsiaarealsogrowingequallyatrapidrates.

Settingupinfrastructure,particularlywhichofenergy/electricityisoneofmainrequirementsforensuringsustainedeconomicgrowthintheregion.

2.0PresentEnergy/ElectricityScenariointheAsianRegion

Theenergy/electricityconsumptionpatternsvaryacrosstheAsianregiondependingonthespectrumofeconomyandthemodelsspecifictoeachofthecountry,thecurrentpolicies,demographicpatternaswellasindustrialandagriculturebase,etc.Whiletheelectricityconsumptionindevelopednationsoftheregion,suchasJapan（8475kWh）andKorea（8502kWh）,ishigh,beingclosetoEuropeancountries,itisquitelowintherangeof80to700kWhincountriesofSouthAsia.About22%ofthepopulation（900millionpeopleofthe4121million）intheregiondoesnothaveaccesstoelectricity.Ofthese,themajority,about700millionarelocatedinSouthAsia.ThegraphsbelowshowtherangeofpercapitaenergyandelectricityconsumptioninsomeoftheAsiancountries:

Fig.1PerCapitaPrimaryEnergySupply

Source:

KeyWorldEnergyStatistics2009,IEA

Fig.2.PerCapitaPrimaryElectricityConsumption

Theothersignificantfeatureoftheenergysupplypatterninthecountriesoftheregionisalargecontributionofnon-commercialenergy–intheformoffirewood,agriculturalandfarmresidue,etc.Themainsourcesofcommercialenergyintheregionarecoal（41%）andOil（28%）.

Theoverallimportdependencyoftheregionissignificant,particularlyforoil,atabout57%（2005）.ThedependencyonimportsforoilinIndiaisabout75%.Energysecurityintheregionisoneoftheconcernsintheregionandthereisanimminentneedtoaddressthis,whichcouldbeachievedbydeployingsustainablesourcesofenergy.Thishasresultedinnuclearpowergettingseriousattentionandconsiderationasoneofthepreferredoptionsamongtheotherenergysourcesintheregion.

2.1DemandProjections:

Thedemandforprimaryenergyintheregionisprojectedtogrowatabout2.4%peryear,withelectricitydemandgrowingat3.5%peryear.China（45.5%）andIndia（17.2%）areexpectedtoconstituteabouttwo-thirdsoftheregion’selectricitygenerationbytheyear2030.

InIndia,theprojectionsofenergyandelectricityupto2032havebeenmadeinIntegratedEnergyPolicy（2005）andthesearebasedonfallingelasticityrateswithassumedGDPgrowthratesof8%and9%.Theaveragegrowthrateofprimarycommercialenergyandelectricityareestimatedtobe5%and7%respectively.Theprojectedenergyandelectricityrequirementsbytheyear2032are1531mtoeand1823mtoefor8%and9%growthratesrespectively.Thecorrespondingelectricityrequirementsareestimatedat3880and4806Terawatt-hours（billonkWh）,whichtranslatestoinstalledcapacitiesof778GWand960GWby2032respectively.

ThereareseveralstudiesmadeonChina’sdemandprojectionsovervaryingtimeframes.TheIEAWorldEnergyOutlook2007studyprojectsChina’stotalenergyrequirementby2030at3819mtoeinoneofthescenarios.ThestudyprojectsChina’selectricityrequirementin2030at8472billionkWh.Thecorrespondinginstalledcapacityforanaveragegrowthrateof7.5%isestimatedabout1775GWby2030.

2.2EnergyResources–CurrentPosition

Theenergyresourcesintheregionsaredistributedmostunevenly.Coalisthemainsourceofcommercialenergyintheregion,availableinChina,India,Indonesiaandsomeothercountries.TheoilandgasresourcesareavailableinCentralAsiaandSoutheastAsia.However,theregionisanetimporterofoil.

Theincreaseddemandoverthenexttwodecadeswillincreasetheimportdependency,apartfromincreaseinexploitationoftheseresourcesfromwithintheregion.

Hydropowerandrenewableenergyhassignificantpotentialinsomecountriesoftheregion.However,theshareofthesesourcesinthetotalprimaryenergydemandislikelytoremainlow.

Atpresent,nuclearpowerislimitedtoafewcountriesintheregioninJapan,SouthKorea,China,India,PakistanandTaiwan.However,projectionsshowamanifoldincreaseofnuclearpowerinChinaandIndiaandothercountrieshasplannedtostartthesame.Thenon-renewableresourceprofilesforcountriesoftheregionthathavesubstantialreservesaregivenbelow:

Fig.3CoalreservesincountriesofAsianRegion

Fig.4OilreservesincountriesofAsianRegion

Fig.5GasreservesincountriesofAsianRegion

Source:

BPStatisticalReview2009

Fig.6UraniumreservesincountriesofAsianRegion

Source:

WNA

Theresourceprofilesoftwoofthemostpopulousnations,ChinaandIndia,andtheirreserves-to-productionratioattheendof2008aregivenbelow:

Table1:

China&IndiaFossilFuelReserves

Resource

China

India

Reserves

R/PRatio

Reserves

R/PRatio

Coal（billiontons）

115

41

59

115

Oil（billionbarrels）

15

11

5.8

21

Gas（trillioncu.m）

2.46

32

1.09

36

Source:

BPStatisticalreview2009

AlthoughChinahaslargeresources,therapidrateofexploitationhasrendereditanetimporterofenergy.Itsimportdependencygrewfrom-4.1%in1990to7.2%in2006.

Similarly,India’srateofproductionofcoalisgrowingatabout5%,atwhichratethemineableresourceofcoalcouldbeexhaustedinabout40years.Thusthetwocountrieshavelimitationsonfossilfuelsthatcanbeeconomicallyminedbeyondthemediumterm.

2.3SustainabilityIssues:

2.3.1EnergySecurity

Theadditionofcapacityintheregionisprojectedtobelargelycommensuratewiththeeconomicgrowth.AseachkWhgeneratedfromfossilfuelemitsaboutakgofCarbondioxide（directemissio