CMDPaperforANUP.docx

1、CMDPaperforANUPInevitability of Nuclear Power in the Asian Region Dr. S.K. JainChairman & Managing DirectorNPCIL & BHAVINIAbstractThe Asian region, most populous and fastest growing in terms of economic growth, has countries with lowest per capita energy/electricity consumption. Barring the Middle E

2、ast, the rest of the region is, by and large, modest in conventional energy resources. This is also a region where large sections of population suffer from income inequality and inadequate economic development. Economic growth and quality of life of a population depend heavily on per capita availabi

3、lity of energy/electricity, and thus there is an urgent need to increase the per capita electricity production/consumption in the region. Unlike in the past, it is the Asian region that is poised to dwarf the todays developed world in new capacity addition in the coming years. This fact alone asks f

4、or sensible choices to be made. Also, the Asian region is quite vulnerable to the effects of climate change, given the geography and population distribution. Today, governments must seriously consider the environmental impact of electricity generation, in order to help mitigate global warming and it

5、s consequences. Nuclear power, being environmentally benign, affords sustainability at the very outset. But thats not all. The other compelling reasons in favour of nuclear power are its compact nature as a source of energy and the promise of long-term energy security. Nuclear power is, therefore, i

6、nevitable for the region. Recognising this, the rapidly developing countries in the region such as India and China are pursuing ambitious nuclear power programmes, while several other countries in the region are also planning to embark on the nuclear power route for electricity generation. As nuclea

7、r power is inherently technology-intensive, there is a need for greater cooperation, to reach out to countries that presently do not have the technology base for starting nuclear power programmes on their own. Even in the countries with established commercial nuclear power programmes, there is a nee

8、d to reach out to the people to demonstrate the merits, safety aspects and economic competitiveness of nuclear power, and also the role of nuclear power in the preservation of the environment. The imperatives of the current scenario warrant building confidence among the people regarding nuclear powe

9、r through sharing of credible information on all its aspects to remove misconceptions. This paper describes the current scenario, key issues, challenges and possible ways to address them. The paper also briefly describes the Indian nuclear power programme for being the second-most aggressive player

10、in the nuclear arena in this region, after China.1.0 IntroductionThe Asian continent is the largest in the world in terms of both area, (about 45 million square kilometers) and population, estimated at 4121 million (2009), of the total world population of 6829 million, constituting about 60%. It is

11、geographically diverse and has distinct geographical regions like South Asia (Indian Subcontinent), East Asia, Southeast Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and Eurasia (area under Russian Federation). In general, the Middle East and Eurasia are referred to separately, while the Asian region predominant

12、ly refers to the remaining areas of the continent. It has the two biggest countries in terms of population, China and India, which constitute about 37% of the world population. A large population of the region has a very low per capita income of about $3000 (PPP). In view of this, many of the counti

13、es in the Asian region rank very low on the human development index (HDI). However, the development goals of the countries in the region need them to be on a path of rapid economic growth. The various policies of most nations of the region are directed at ensuring a fast economic growth rate to achi

14、eve their development goals. China and India are the worlds second- and third-largest economies in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. They are also among the fastest-growing economies, growing at around 7 to 10% every year. The other economies in East and Southeast Asia are also growing equally at

15、 rapid rates.Setting up infrastructure, particularly which of energy/electricity is one of main requirements for ensuring sustained economic growth in the region. 2.0 Present Energy/Electricity Scenario in the Asian RegionThe energy/electricity consumption patterns vary across the Asian region depen

16、ding on the spectrum of economy and the models specific to each of the country, the current policies, demographic pattern as well as industrial and agriculture base, etc. While the electricity consumption in developed nations of the region, such as Japan (8475 kWh) and Korea (8502 kWh), is high, bei

17、ng close to European countries, it is quite low in the range of 80 to 700 kWh in countries of South Asia. About 22% of the population (900 million people of the 4121 million) in the region does not have access to electricity. Of these, the majority, about 700 million are located in South Asia. The g

18、raphs below show the range of per capita energy and electricity consumption in some of the Asian countries:Fig. 1 Per Capita Primary Energy SupplySource: Key World Energy Statistics 2009, IEAFig. 2. Per Capita Primary Electricity ConsumptionThe other significant feature of the energy supply pattern

19、in the countries of the region is a large contribution of non-commercial energy in the form of firewood, agricultural and farm residue, etc. The main sources of commercial energy in the region are coal (41%) and Oil (28%).The overall import dependency of the region is significant, particularly for o

20、il, at about 57% (2005). The dependency on imports for oil in India is about 75%. Energy security in the region is one of the concerns in the region and there is an imminent need to address this, which could be achieved by deploying sustainable sources of energy. This has resulted in nuclear power g

21、etting serious attention and consideration as one of the preferred options among the other energy sources in the region. 2.1 Demand Projections:The demand for primary energy in the region is projected to grow at about 2.4% per year, with electricity demand growing at 3.5% per year. China (45.5%) and

22、 India (17.2%) are expected to constitute about two-thirds of the regions electricity generation by the year 2030.In India, the projections of energy and electricity up to 2032 have been made in Integrated Energy Policy (2005) and these are based on falling elasticity rates with assumed GDP growth r

23、ates of 8% and 9%. The average growth rate of primary commercial energy and electricity are estimated to be 5% and 7% respectively. The projected energy and electricity requirements by the year 2032 are 1531 mtoe and 1823 mtoe for 8% and 9% growth rates respectively. The corresponding electricity re

24、quirements are estimated at 3880 and 4806 Terawatt-hours (billon kWh), which translates to installed capacities of 778 GW and 960 GW by 2032 respectively. There are several studies made on Chinas demand projections over varying time frames. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 study projects Chinas tot

25、al energy requirement by 2030 at 3819 mtoe in one of the scenarios. The study projects Chinas electricity requirement in 2030 at 8472 billion kWh. The corresponding installed capacity for an average growth rate of 7.5% is estimated about 1775 GW by 2030.2.2 Energy Resources Current Position The ener

26、gy resources in the regions are distributed most unevenly. Coal is the main source of commercial energy in the region, available in China, India, Indonesia and some other countries. The oil and gas resources are available in Central Asia and Southeast Asia. However, the region is a net importer of o

27、il. The increased demand over the next two decades will increase the import dependency, apart from increase in exploitation of these resources from within the region. Hydro power and renewable energy has significant potential in some countries of the region. However, the share of these sources in th

28、e total primary energy demand is likely to remain low. At present, nuclear power is limited to a few countries in the region in Japan, South Korea, China, India, Pakistan and Taiwan. However, projections show a manifold increase of nuclear power in China and India and other countries has planned to

29、start the same . The non-renewable resource profiles for countries of the region that have substantial reserves are given below: Fig. 3 Coal reserves in countries of Asian RegionFig. 4 Oil reserves in countries of Asian RegionFig. 5 Gas reserves in countries of Asian RegionSource: BP Statistical Rev

30、iew 2009Fig. 6 Uranium reserves in countries of Asian RegionSource: WNAThe resource profiles of two of the most populous nations, China and India, and their reserves-to-production ratio at the end of 2008 are given below:Table 1 : China & India Fossil Fuel ReservesResourceChinaIndiaReservesR/P Ratio

31、 ReservesR/P RatioCoal (billion tons)1154159115Oil (billion barrels)15115.821Gas (trillion cu.m)2.46321.0936Source: BP Statistical review 2009 Although China has large resources, the rapid rate of exploitation has rendered it a net importer of energy. Its import dependency grew from -4.1% in 1990 to

32、 7.2% in 2006.Similarly, Indias rate of production of coal is growing at about 5%, at which rate the mineable resource of coal could be exhausted in about 40 years. Thus the two countries have limitations on fossil fuels that can be economically mined beyond the medium term.2.3 Sustainability Issues:2.3.1 Energy Security The addition of capacity in the region is projected to be largely commensurate with the economic growth. As each kWh generated from fossil fuel emits about a kg of Carbon dioxide(direct emissio