美赛特等奖论文_精品文档.pdf
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Team#28414Page1of33EvaluationSystemforCollegeCoachingLegendsSummaryInordertoevaluatetheperformanceofacoach,wedescribemetricsinfiveaspects:
historicalrecord,gamegoldcontent,playoffperformance,honorsandcontributiontothesports.Moreover,eachaspectissubdividedintoseveralsecondarymetrics.Takeplayoffperformanceasexample,wecollectpostseasonresult(SweetSixteen,FinalFour,etc.)peryearfromNCAAofficialwebsite,Wikimediaandsoon.First,AnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP)Modelisestablishedtodeterminetheweightofeachmetrictocoachesevaluationgrade.Allmetricsareadequatelyfilledintothethree-hierarchystructure,andthenweobtainthemetricweightbasedonwhichevaluationgradeiscalculated.Second,FuzzySyntheticEvaluation(FSE)isbuilttoovercomeweaknessofexcesssubjectivefactorsinAHP.Thismodeltakesdataprocessingbymembershipfunctiontogeneratefuzzymatrix.Afterthat,entropymethodandlinearweightedmethodareappliedtoobtainevaluationgrade.Toevaluatetheaccuracyofthetwomodels,hitscoreisdefined.ItissupposedtoreflectthedifferencebetweenourresultsandstandardrankingsfromseveralauthoritiessuchasESPNandSportingNews.TakeNCAAbasketballasacasestudy,AHPreceives78.77hitscorewhileFSEgets81.81,whichindicatesthatFSEperformsbetterthanAHP.Afterwards,AggregationModel(AM)canbedevelopedbycombiningthetwomodelsbasedonhitscore.Thetop5collegebasketballcoaches,inturn,areJohnWooden,MikeKrzyzewski,AdolphRupp,DeanSmithandBobKnight.Timelinehorizondoesmakeadifference.AccordingtoturningpointsinNCAAhistory,wedividethepreviouscenturyintosixperiodswithdifferenttimeweightswhichleadtothechangeofranking.Weapplyourmodelintocollegewomensbasketballonlytofindthatgendersdonotmatter.Modelprovestobeefficientinothersports.Therankingofcollegefootballis:
BearBryant,KnuteRockne,TomOsborne,JoePaterno,BobbyBowden,andthetop5coachesincollegehockeyareBobJohnson,RedBerenson,JackParker,JerryYork,RonMason.WeconductsensitivityanalysisonFSEtofindbestmembershipfunctionandcalculationrule.Sensitivityanalysisonaggregationweightisalsoperformed.ItprovesAMperformsbetterthansinglemodel.Asacreativeuse,top3presidents(U.S.)arepickedout:
AbrahamLincoln,GeorgeWashington,FranklinD.Roosevelt.Atlast,thestrengthandweaknessofourmodearediscussed,non-technicalexplanationispresentedandthefutureworkispointedaswell.Team#28414Page2of33I.Introduction.31.1ProblemBackground.31.2PreviousResearch.31.3OurWork.3II.Symbols,DefinitionsandAssumptions.42.1SymbolsandDefinitions.42.2GeneralAssumptions.5III.Articulateourmetrics.53.1Specifyevaluationnorms.53.2Collectdata.83.3Preprocessdata.9IV.Twomodelsforcoachranking.104.1ModelI:
AnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP).104.1.1Thethree-hierarchystructure.104.1.2Obtaintheindexweight.104.1.3Results&analysis.114.2ModelII:
FuzzySyntheticEvaluation(FSE).124.2.1Quantifygradesinthefiveaspects.124.2.2Determinemembershipfunctions.134.2.3Determinetheweightsusingentropymethod.144.2.4Results&analysis.15V.ModelsCombination.155.1Evaluationofindividualmodel.155.2AggregationModel.175.3Results&analysis.17VI.ExtendOurModels.186.1Gendersdonotmatter.186.2Timefactordoesmakeadifference.196.2.1Whytimefactormatters?
.196.2.2Howtimefactormatters?
.196.2.3Whatisthevariationtendency?
.236.3Modelalsoworksinothersports.23VII.Furtherdiscussion.257.1SensitiveAnalysisonFSE.257.1.1VaryMembershipfunction.257.1.2Varycalculationrule.277.2SensitiveAnalysisonAggregationweight.287.3Explore:
EvaluatingBestPresident.29VIII.StrengthandWeakness.30IX.Non-technicalExplanation.30X.Futurework.32XI.References.32Team#28414Page3of33I.Introduction1.1ProblemBackgroundSportsIllustratedisanAmericansportsmediafranchiseownedbymediaconglomerateTimeWarner1.Thismagazineislookingforthe“bestalltimecollegecoach”maleorfemaleforthepreviouscentury.Thebestcollegecoachorcoachescanbefromamongeithermaleorfemalecoachesindifferentfields,suchascollegehockeyorfieldhockey,football,baseballorsoftball,basketball,orsoccer.Wefacemainlyfourproblems:
Articulateourownmetricsandbuildamathematicalmodel;Setuptheevaluationsystemfortheperformanceofthemodel.Discusshowourmodelcanbeappliedwithtimefactororacrossbothgendersandallpossiblesports;Analyzetheinfluencesoftheparameters,thendiscusswhetheryourmodelcouldbeappliedintowidefields.1.2PreviousResearchSomemagazinesorwebsitesthatfocusmainlyoncollegesportshaverankedthetopcollegecoachesofdifferentsports.Forexample,hasmadeabasket-ballpowerrankings2whichshowsthetop25coachesofcollegebasketball.Consideringthebestcoll