IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren.pptx

IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren.pptx

《IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren.pptx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren.pptx（51页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

CurrencyInternationalizationPresenterTaoWuCTPTrainingProgramMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05ContentOutlineDefinitionofcurrencyinternationalizationObjectivesandbenefitsofcurrencyinternationalizationCostsofcurrencyinternationalizationEvolutionofaninternationalcurrencyRMBInternationalization2DefinitionofCurrencyInternationalization3MMFDefinitionofInternationalCurrencyAnationalcurrencyisregarded“internationalized”ifitplaystheroleofmoneyoutsidethecountrywhereitisissued.Mediumofexchange;Unitofaccount;Storeofvalue;Methodofpayment.Foranoperationaldefinition,itmaybeusefultoidentifyqualificationsforaninternationalcurrency.Capitalaccountconvertibility;norestrictionsoncurrencytrading,spotorforward;Littleornorestrictionsonforeignersaccesstodomesticfinancialmarkets;Largevolumeoftradeandfinancialassetsfromtheoriginatingcountry;Theissuerhasthebargainingpowertodenominatetradeinitscurrency;Welldevelopedfinancialmarketwithalargevarietyofrisk-hedginginstruments;breadthandliquidity;Stabilityofvalue:

long-runpricestability（lowinflation）andlowexchangevariability.4CapitalAccountConvertibilityCapitalaccountconvertibilitymaybeaprecondition,butitdoesnotautomaticallyleadtocurrencyinternationalization（CI）.IMFdefinestheterm“convertible”as“freelyusableforthesettlementsofinternationaltransactions”.Unlessthecurrencyiswidelyusedininternationaltransactions,itdoesnotfunctionasaglobalunitofexchange.Thedegreeofacurrencysactualusageisthemostcriticalcriterion:

Itsshareinthedenominationofinternationaltradeandfinancialassets;Foreignholdingsofthecurrencyasinternationalreserves.Bythisstandard,evenJapaneseyenisyetafullyfledgedinternationalcurrency.5InternationalReserves（%ofTotal）6Source:

IMFAnnualReportsQualificationsforInternationalReservesSizeofGDPTheU.SdollarisdominantEuroquicklybecamethesecondkeycurrencyStabilityofvalueTheprospectoftheeconomyEurovs.YenFinancialdevelopmentMaynotbesocriticalEurovs.Britishpound7FinancialAssetDenomination（MoneyMarket,%ofTotal）8Source:

BISQuarterlyReview:

variousissues.FinancialAssetDenominationTheUSdollarhaslostitsdominance.Theeurohasbecomethedominantcurrency.ThepoundsterlinghaslostitskeycurrencypositiondespiteLondonbeingaglobalfinancialcenter.9TradeDenominationUnitedStatesUnitedKingdomJapanGermanyFranceAustraliaExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImport1980US$96.085.017.029.065.793.07.232.320.337.1Euro.Yen0.21.00.11.329.42.40.00.00.10.7Home96.085.076.038.029.42.482.543.060.537.1Other3.814.06.931.74.94.610.324.719.125.11992US$92.080.022.022.046.674.57.318.416.523.1Euro.Yen1.53.00.72.440.117.00.31.70.81.3Home92.080.062.043.040.117.077.055.954,646.7Other6.517.015.332.613.38.515.424.028.128.92000US$29.034.052.470.742.657.268.051.4Euro21.019.06.11.244.632.90.32.3Yen.36.123.5.0.85.2Home46.042.036.123.544.632.928.628.3Other4.05.05.44.612.89.92.312.82003US$90.348.068.324.133.933.646.967.547.9Euro2.09.34.663.055.252.745.31.49.4Yen.38.925.0.93.6Home90.338.92563.055.252.745.327.832.6Other7.73.82.112.910.913.77.82.46.510Source:

BankofKorea,Kawai（2008）,Kamps（2006）,EURCDeterminantsofTradeInvoicingTradedgoodsaremorelikelytobeinvoicedbyexporterscurrenciesExchangerateriskismorecriticalforexporters.Producercurrencypricingismorelikelyiftradedgoodsaremoredifferentiated.Demanduncertaintyislowerformoredifferentiatedgoods.Morehomogeneousgoodssuchasoilandotherprimarycommoditiesarelikelytobeinvoicedinaveryfewkeycurrencies.11ObjectivesandBenefitsofCurrencyInternationalization12MMF1.ReducingforeignexchangeraterisksDomesticagentsengagedinforeigntrademaybeabletoreduceforeignexchangerateriskstotheextentthattheirexportsandimportsareinvoicedintheirowncurrencies.Domesticborrowers（financialinstitutionsandfirms）couldalsoborrowintheirowncurrencies,therebyavoidingcurrencymismatchintheirbalancesheets.The1997Asianfinancialcrisisdemonstratedthatmacroeconomicshockscouldbeamplifiedbythebalancesheetaggravationinthebankingsector.Yetwiththedevelopmentoffinancialderivativeproducts,suchbenefitsbecomelower.132.CollectingseignioragerevenuesCountrieshavingmajorinternationalcurrenciesalsoreapthebenefitsofcollectingseignioragerevenuesfromforeignholdingsoftheircurrencies.ChinnandFrankel（2007）findthatthesharesaredeterminedbytheeconomicsizeofthecountry,inflationrate,exchangeratevariability,andthesizeoftherelevantfinancialcenter.Asfarasemergingeconomiesareconcerned,sincetheyarewellbehindintermsofthesedeterminants,thisbenefitislikelytobeinsignificant.143.DevelopingdomesticfinancialinstitutionsDomesticfinancialinstitutionsmaygainanedgeovertheirexternalcompetitionsindealingintheirowncurrency.Onceanumberoffinancialassetsdenominatedintheirowncurrenciesareissuedandfreelyexchangedforforeigncurrencies,moreopportunitiesinglobalfinancialintermediationopenupfordomesticfinancialinstitutions.Somepolicymakersconsidercurrencyutilizationasawaytodevelopthefinancialinstitutions.154.EstablishinganinternationalfinancialcenterSomeemergingeconomiesmayfinditnecessarytointernationalizetheircurrenciestoholdaregionalfinancialcentersomewhereontheirsoil.Forexample,Koreahasbeenpursuinginternationalizationofitscurrencyintheexpectationofhostinganinternationalfinancialhub.However,CIdoesnotnecessarilyleadtotheestablishmentofafinancialcenter.Inthecaseoftheeuro,afullydevelopedinternationalfinancialcenterislocatedinLondon.Singaporesnon-internationalizationpolicyalsoillustratesthatCIisnotanecessaryconditionforthedevelopmentofafinancialcenter.Restrictionsofcross-borderasset-sidebanklendingofSingaporedollarstonon-residentsortoresidentswhereSingaporedollarsweretobeusedoutsideSingapore,untilthelate1990s.16SummaryofObjectives/BenefitsLayingthefoundationforareservecurrencyAvoiding“originalsin”ImprovingcompetitivenessofexportsoffinancialservicesasregionalorglobalfinancialcentercountriesSpeedingupfinancialdeepeningReducingforeignexchangeraterisksSeignioragerevenuesHoldingsmalleramountsofreserves17BenefitsmaynotbelargeforemergingeconomiesDemandforinternationalcurrencyismarketdrivenCurrencydenominationisdeterminedbyeconomicfundamentalsandforeigndemandCIisnotanecessaryconditionforaregionalfinancialcenter.Examples:

EuroandSingaporedollar.SmallerreserveholdingsarenotnecessarilyrelatedtoCIAustraliahascontractedaswapwiththeUSFed18CostsofCurrencyInternationalization19MMFI.CostsinvolvedwithcapitalaccountliberalizationandfinancialderegulationOneofthenecessaryconditionsforCIisliberalizationofcapitalaccounttransactions.Deregulationofcrossborderinvestmentswouldprovidealevelplayingfieldforbothforeignanddomesticmarketparticipants.ForeigninvestorsarenotsubjecttoanyrestrictionsinbuyingandsellingdomesticfinancialinstrumentsinbothdomesticandoffshoremarketsLikewise,domesticresidentsareaccordedthesameopportunitiestoparticipateinforeignfinancialmarketsbothaslendersandborrowers.20EffectsofCapitalAccountLiberalizationGrowthBenefitsFinancialliberalizationleadstoflowsofcapitalfrom（advanced）economieswithlowratesofreturnoncapitalto（emerginganddeveloping）economieswithhigherreturns,therebycomplementinglimiteddomesticsavingsandloweringthecostofcapitaltoaugmentdomesticinvestmentinthelatter.Koseetal.（2006）arguethattherearecertainthresholdconditionsemergingeconomiesaretomeetinordertoreapgrowthbenefitsfromfinancialmarketopeningsuchasdevelopedfinancialmarkets,highqualityofinstitutionsandgovernance,andtradeintegration.Question:

Isthecountrysufferingfromalackofdomesticsaving?

21EffectsofCapitalAccountLiberalizationFinancialStabilityIncreasingcapitalaccountliberalizationhasincreasedthevolatilityofcapitalflows,posingseriousimpedimentstofinancialstability.Sincetheeruptionofthe2008crisis,capitalflowsinmanyEastAsianeconomieswithfullyandpartiallyopencapitalaccountshavebecomemoreunstablethanbefore,causingahighdegreeoffluctuationsofstockpricesandexchangerates.TolargeforeignprivateandinstitutionalinvestorsoperatingoutofEastAsiasregionalfinancialmarkets,theirinvestmentsinanindividualemergingeconomyoftenaccountsforaverysmallshareoftheirtotalglobalinvestments,yetpossiblyalargepartofthelocalmarketsandcanthereforeeasilydictatemovementsoffinancialpricesincludingtheexchangerate.22EffectsofCapitalAccountLiberalizationInternationalReserveHoldingsIntheory,countrieswithinternationalizedcurrenciesandfreefloatingwouldnotneedtoholdasmuchreservesascountrieswithinsularcurrencies,becausetheycanusetheirowncurrenciestosubstitutefordollarliquidity.Countrieswithinternationalizedcurrenciese.g.U.K.,EuroArea,CanadaandAustraliaholdverysmallamountsofFOREXreserves,borrowingexternallytofinancetheircurrentaccountdeficits,althoughthereareexceptionssuchasJapan.Butacountryscapacityforexternalfinancingislikelytobedeterminedbyitseconomicfundamentals（debtsustainability）,notbyitscurrencystatus.Example:

Australia23EffectsofCapitalAccountLiberalizationSummaryLittlerobustempiricalevidenceoneconomicgrowthManyempiricalst