ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-.pptx

ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-.pptx

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MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wiley&Sons,PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton,1,CHAPTER11,MEASURINGANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,2,CHAPTEROVERVIEW,I.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,3,PARTI.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,I.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKA.Economicexposurefocusesontheimpactofcurrencyfluctuationsonfirmsvalue.1.Expectationsaboutthefluctuationmustbeincorporatedinallbasicdecisionsofthefirm.,4,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,2.Definitions:

a.Accountingexposureimpactonfirmsbalancesheetb.Economicexposure1.）Transaction2.）Operating,5,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,THEREALEXCHANGERATE,6,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,B.RealExchangeRatesandRisk1.Nominalv.realexchangerates:

therealratehasbeenadjustedforpricechanges.,7,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,3.SUMMARYa.theeconomicimpactofacurrencychangedependsontheoffsetbythedifferenceininflationratesortherealexchangerate.b.Itistherelativepricechangesthatultimatelydetermineafirmslong-runexposure.,8,PARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCESA.Transactionexposure1.On-balancesheet2.Off-balancesheet,9,THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES（cont）B.OperatingExposure:

realratechange1.Pricingflexibilityiskey2.Productdifferentiation3.Substitutionofinputs,10,THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.SUMMARYThesectoroftheeconomyinwhichthefirmoperates;thesourcesofthefirmsinputs;andfluctuationsintherealexchangeratedelineatethefirmstrueeconomicexposure.,11,PARTIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,III.CASESTUDIESOFECONOMICEXPOSUREA.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY1.Firmsexchangerateriskaffecteditssalesrevenues.,12,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,A.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY（cont）2.Althoughtherewasnotranslationrisk,theglobalmarketwithitsexchangerateriskanditscompetitorsimpactedmarketdemand.,13,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,B.PETROLEOSMEXICANOS（PEMEX）1.Thefirmsexchangerateriskaffectedcostbutnotrevenues.2.Economicimpacta.Revenues:

noneb.Costs:

decreasedc.Neteffect:

increasedUS$flows,14,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,C.TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY1.ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTHrevenuesandcosts.2.Flowbackeffect:

previouslyexportedgoodsreturnwithincreaseddomesticcompetition.3.Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically,15,PARTIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,IV.Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomicexposuredependsonunderlyingassumptionsconcerning:

A.futurecashflows;B.sensitivitytoexchangeratechanges.,16,PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,V.NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACHA.RegressionAnalysis1.Variablesa.Independent:

changesinparentscashflowsb.Dependent:

Averagenominalexchangeratechange.,17,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.REGRESSIONEQUATION-approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates:

-acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunitscashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate,18,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,whereCFt=CFt-CFt-1andCFtisthedollarvalueoftotalaffiliate（parent）cashflowsinperiodtEXCHt=EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalstheaveragenominalexchangerateduringperiodtu=arandomerrorterm,19,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,1.Outputmeasures:

a.Betacoefficient（b）measurestheassociationofchangesincashflowstoexchangeratechanges.,20,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,b.thehigherthepercentagechangeofcashflowtochangesinexchangerates,thegreatertheeconomicexposure（higherbetavalues）.,21,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,VI.SUMMARY:

A.Thefocusoftheaccountingprofessiononthebalancesheetimpactofcurrencychangeshasledtoignoringtheimportantimpactonfuturecashflows.,22,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.Forfirmsincurringcostsandsellingproductsinforeigncountries,theneteffectofcurrencychangesmaybelessimportantinthelongrun.,23,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,C.Tomeasureexposureproperly,youmustfocusoninflation-adjustedorrealexchangeratesinsteadofnominaloractualexchangerates.,24,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,D.Itisdifficultinpracticetodeterminewhattheactualeconomicimpactofacurrencychangewillbe.,25,PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,I.INTRODUCTIONOperatingexposuremanagementrequireslong-termoperatingadjustments.A.Realv.NominalChanges1.Relativepricechangesleadstomarketingand/orproductionrevisions,26,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives1.Marketing:

marketselectionproductstrategypricingstrategypromotionalstrategy,27,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives（cont）2.Production:

productsourcinginputmixplantlocationraisingproductivity,28,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,II.MarketingManagementAdjustmentsA.MarketSelection1.useadvantagetocarveoutmarketshare2.Marketsegmentation,29,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.Pricingstrategy:

Expectationscritical1.IfHCvaluefalls,exportergainscompetitiveadvantagebyincreasingunitprofitabilityandmarketshare.2.Thehigherpriceelasticityofdemand,themorecurrencyriskthefirmfacesbyproductsubstitution.,30,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,3.FollowingHCdepreciation,localfirmmayhavemuchmorefreedominitspricing.C.PromotionalStrategy,31,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,D.ProductStrategyexchangeratechangesmayalter1.Thetimingofnewproductintroductions,2.Productdeletion,3.Productinnovation.,32,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,III.ProductManagementAdjustmentsproductsourcingandplantlocationaretheprincipalvariablestomanipulate.A.InputmixB.ShiftproductionamongplantsC.PlantlocationD.Raisingproductivity,33,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,IV.PlanningForExchange-RateChangesA.Withbetterplanningandmorecompetitiveoptions,firmscanchangestrategiessubstantiallyB.beforetheimpactofancurrencychangemakesitselffelt.C.Implication:

compactionofadjustmentperiodfollowinganexchange-ratechange.,34,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,V.FinancialManagementofExchangeRateRisk:

FinancialmanagersRoleinMarketingandProductionA.Providelocalmanagerwithfore-castsofinflationandexchange-ratechanges.B.Identifyandfocusoncompetitiveexposure.,35,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,C.Designtheevaluationcriteriasothatoperatingmanagersneitherrewardedorpenalizedforunexpectedexchange-ratechanges.D.Estimateandhedgetheoperatingexposureafteradjustmentsmade.,36,