外文翻译外商直接投资模式的解释基于土耳其汽车产业的分析.docx

外文翻译外商直接投资模式的解释基于土耳其汽车产业的分析.docx

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外文翻译外商直接投资模式的解释基于土耳其汽车产业的分析

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目：

UnderstandingpatternsofFDI:

thecaseofTurkeyanditsautoindustry

出处：

EuropeanBusinessJournal,15

（2）,2003,pages61-69

作者：

M.JohnFosterIpekAlkan.Ipek原文：

PatternsofFDIforTurkey:

actualityandexpectation

Thestartingpointarguablyforanyaspirantdevelopingeconomyinitssearchforinwardforeigninvestment–FDIfromtheperspectiveoftheinvestors–isthegeneralupswinginaggregateglobalFDItrendsfromsourceeconomies,whichoccursforavarietyofwell-rehearsedreasons,seee.g.Porter（1990）,Buckley（1992）andDunning（1993）.Thesereasonsinclude:

marketextension（perhapsbecausethehomemarketisnearsaturation）;accessingscarceprimaryproducts（primarilyoilandminerals）;productionefficiencystrategiesbenefitingfromlocation-specificcostadvantagesinsinkeconomies;andmoreorlesscomplexmixturesoftheseandotherfactors.Fordevelopingeconomies,thequestiontheymayreasonablyaskis:

‘Canwegetashareofthisinflowofcapital?

’

Table1summarisesglobalpatternsofFDIinrecentyears.Itshowsa238%increaseinaggregateFDIovertheperiod1994to1999.Thiscompriseda338%increaseinFDIintodevelopedcountriesanda98%riseintheinflowstodevelopingeconomies.Inshort,whiletherehasbeensignificantgrowthindevelopingeconomies,forthedevelopedeconomiesthegrowthhasbeenmuchmoredramatic.EvenChina,themuchvauntedstarofforeigninvestment,hasonlyperformed‘steadily’whenbenchmarkedagainstglobalaggregates.Thetableshows,usingVietnamasabenchmark,thatTurkeyhasnotdoneverywellinaggregatetermswhencomparedwithneweremergingeconomiesoverthepastdecade.

ThissimpleaggregatepatternisfurtherelaboratedbyconsideringtheFDIpercapitafiguresshowninTable2.ThisclearlysuggeststhatTurkeyismissingoutinthatitspercapitaperformanceoverthedecadeshownhasbeenflatwhilethepicturehasbeenoneofsharpgrowthwithintheotherdevelopingeconomies.ThecomparisonwithVietnamisverystark;Vietnamisacountrywhichhadtore-launchitseconomyfromaverylowbaseaftertheUSremoveditsblockonUScompanies’investment,institutedimmediatelyafteritswithdrawalfromtheVietnamWarin1975.

Indeedtheflatperformanceofthe1990satatimeofaggregateglobalincreaseisevenmorenotablewhencomparedwiththe1980s.Dataforthatperiodshowthattheliberalisation-orientedchangeinregimeoftheperioddidindeedproduceapositiveincreasealbeitfromalowbase.Hencethefairlymodestaverageperformancearoundthechangeofdecade（seeTable1）neverthelessmarkedafive-foldincreaseonthefirstcoupleofyears.Acornerwasturned,sotospeak,butwasnotfollowedbytheexpectedacceleration.

Atanaggregatelevel,theratioFDIt/GDPt,，wheretistheyearorperiodchosen,issometimesusedasanindicatorofhowwellacountryisdoinginattractingFDI.Isacountry‘gettingitsshare’?

Theunreliabilityofsourcedatacanbeaproblembuttheratioislikelytobefairlyrobustcertainlytoanorderofmagnitude.BasedondatafromtheUNStatisticalYearbook（UN,2001）andthedatainTable1,in1999,Turkey’sratiowas0.4,comparedwithThailand5.5,Vietnam5.8,China3.8,UK5.7,andUS3.1.ThesedatasuggestthatTurkeyfailedtoperform–itclearlydidnotgetarelativeshare,whethercomparedwithdevelopedorcomparabledevelopingcountries.

Untilrecently,manufacturingwasveryimportantwithinthepatternofFDIintoTurkey,andthebiggestsubsectorthereinwastheautoandtransportpartsindustry.HencetheautoindustrymightbeexpectedtobeaparticulartargetforFDI.ButactualrealisedFDIinthatsectorhasbeenmutedinabsoluteifnotinternal,comparativeterms,asweexplaininmoredetailinthenextsection:

why?

WehavealreadystatedthatTurkey’saggregateFDIperformancehasbeenweakerthanmightbeexpectedbasedonsimplebenchmarkingaroundthesizeofthecountry’spopulationandGDP.Anexaminationofsomeofthekeyelementsofthecountry’sbusinessenvironmentwouldtendtosuggestthattheexpectationmightwellbeforastrongerperformancethanthatfound.

Firstofallthereisitsfavourablegeographicalposition.TurkeysitsatthenortheastcorneroftheMediterranean.Assuch,it:

•abutstheEUviaitscurrentmosteasterlyelement,Greece（andhasitscustomsunionwiththeEU）,

•hasborderswithoilrichIranandIraqandmoregenerallycanbeseenaswellplacedtoservethegrowingMiddleEastmarket,and•hasimmediateaccesstoanumberofex-ComeconeconomieseitherviadirectlandbordersorbyseaviaBlackSeaports–itcontrolstheBosphorus,whichisthegatewaytotheBlackSea.

Threemorepositivefactorscanbereadilyidentified,allofwhichmightbethoughttobesourcesofcomparativeadvantage:

1.competitivelabourrates,certainlycomparedwithEUrates,ifnotwiththoseofotherdevelopingeconomiesinotherregions（e.g.thebenchmarkusedbefore,Vietnam）;

2.awell-developedinfrastructure,inthewestofthecountryatleast,whichisalsotheindustrializedarea;and

3.alargeprivatisationprogramme,overthepastdecade.

WeconcludethissectionbynotingthemajorsourcesofFDIintoTurkey.Recentlythemainsourceshavebeen:

France,Germany,US,Netherlands,Switzerland,UK,ItalyandJapan,seee.g.LoewendahlandErtugal-Loewendahl（2000,Table1）.InotherwordstheEUandtheUSleadsuchinwardinvestmentasisoccurring,notforexampleitsoil-richArabneighbours.

TheautosectorwithintheTurkisheconomy

Atthetimeoftheresearchin2001,therewere15auto-makersinTurkey（TAMs）,ofwhich10haveatleastsomeelementofFDI.ThepatternofproductionandimportsisshowninTable3.ItshowsagrowingshareoftheTurkishmarketforautounitsbeingtakenbyimportsevenasthemarketitselfgrew.

Theindustryisthethirdlargestindustrialsegmentintheeconomyandemploys500000people.Vehicleownershipratescurrentlyarearound62perthousandpersons,comparedwithaglobalaverageof82perthousand,indicatinghighpotentialdemandiftheeconomycangrowgenerally.However,therearemajorperceivedimpedimentstoautosales,aswediscussinthenextsection.Theseincludelowincomepercapitaandhighlevelsoffinalsalestax.

The15producercompanieshaveacapacitytobuild667000passengercarsperannum（infivecompanies）andafurther223000vehiclesofothertypes,making890000intotal.

Table4showstherecentexportperformanceoftheTAMs.WhiletheyshowanupwardtrendtheyarestillnotsufficienttoenabletheTAMstoachieveacceptablelevelsofplantutilisation,nomorethantheorderof50%overanumberofyears.

Surveyofforeign-investedTAMs

GiventhetwinfactsofTurkey’sgeneralunderperformanceintheFDIstakes,includingtheautosector,and,apparently,thepotentiallyfavourableconditionsforFDIinTurkey,thequestionofitsrelativelypoorlevelofFDIremained.Inordertoexplorethisissue,asurveywasconductedofthe10auto-makersinTurkeywhichhaveatleastsomeelementofforeigninvestment（theFITAMs–seeAppendix1foralist）.Fiveofthetenrespondedandsuppliedsomeconsiderabledetail,includinganswerstofollow-upqueriesbytelephone,whereanswerstoquestionswerenotwhollyclear.Thequestionnairewasstructuredintheformofacombinationofclosed（factgathering）andopen（opinionoffering）questions.

PerceivedbarrierstoFDIintheautoindustry

ItwasfoundthatthemainfactorsbelievedtoimpedethedevelopmentoftheautoindustryandhenceactasbarrierstofurtherFDIintoitwereasfollows:

•politicalinstability,includingcorruption;

•recurringeconomiccrises,withattendanthighinflation,interestratesandstagnation;

•lowincomelevels–thesearebelievedtobeholdingbacklatentdomesticdemand;

•heavyrelianceonimportedcomponents（inputs）–thiscanalsobeseenastheindustrynotachievingsufficientmasstoallowlocalverticalintegration;and

•hightaxesonfinalvehiclesales,from37to64%.

Oneconsequenceofthesefactors,incombination,waslowutilisationrateswithinTurkishautoplants（oftheorderof50%,asalreadynoted）.Aconsequenceofthisinturnisthatunitcostsarehigherthanwouldbethecaseweresomethingclosetofullcapacityusetobeachieved.ThisinturnhasmadeTurkishexportslesscompetitive,intheEUforexample,thanmighthavebeenexpected.InthecaseoftheEUmarketthislackofcompetitivenessoccursinspiteofmarkedlyhigherEUlabourrates.Thishighlightsanimportantpoint,madeelsewhereinaSoutheastAsiancontext,seeFoster（1997）,thatsimplyhavinglowwageratesavailableisaninadequatebasisforanFDIdecision.ThepointseemsobviousoncemadebutisoftenglossedoverbecausethelowwagerationaleforFDIistheonemostfrequentlydiscussed.

ThesenseofTurkeybeinginanapparentlystrongcompetitivepositionvis-à-visinwardFDIbutfailingtorealiseitspotentialbecauseofconcernsregardingpoliticalandeconomicstabilityissupportedbytheconclusionsofarecentpaperbyLoewandahlandErtugal-Loewendahl（2000）.

PrognosisforthefutureofFITAMs

Therespondingautocompanieswerealsoaskedfortheirprognosisforthefuture.ThoseforeignmanufacturersalreadycommittedtoTurkey,aswereourrespondents,arecautiouslybullish.Conclusions,inbrief,were:

•noneoftherespondingFITAMshadplanstowithdrawnorexpectedcompetitorstodoso;indeed

•threeofthefiverespondentshadfurtherimmediateinvestmentplansinhandandafourthhadrecentlycompletedasignificantinvestment;

•theconsensuswasneverthelessthatmovesintoTurkeybyVolkswagena