bxr中国路边的零售业英文版10.docx
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bxr中国路边的零售业英文版10
RoadsideretailinChina
GasolinereachesthehugeChinesemarketthroughafragmentedretailanddistributionnetworkofabout90,000stations,almostallstateowned.Manyarerunmoreassinecuresthanasbusinesses,oftenwithastafffourtofivetimeslargerthantheinternationalnormbutwithlessthanaquarteroftheaveragegasolinethroughputofUSstations.TheChinesegovernment,whichiswellawareoftheproblem,hasresolvednottoallowthecountryenergyinfrastructuretoburdenthewholeeconomy:
itisfastderegulatingthesector,whichwillbefullyopeneduptoforeigncompaniesin2004underthecommitmentsattendingthecountrymembershipintheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Foreignoilcompanieshavehithertobeenrestrictedtoone-offlocaldealsinspecialeconomiczonesortiedtoinvestmentsintoll-roadconstruction.
Althoughthestageshouldthusbesetforcannycorporationstomoveintothemarket,itremainsunclearhowtheywillmakemoney.Competitionisalreadydrivingdownretailmarginsongasoline,whilepricesforthebeststationsiteshavesoaredasChina抯largedomesticoilcompanieshaverushedtobuythem.OilcompaniesintheWestfacingsimilarmarginpressuresknowthatmostgasolinestationsareviableonlyiftheyoffergeneral-retailfacilitiesatleastaslargeasaconveniencestore,inadditiontogasoline.ThisistrueinChinaaswell.Thehighest-volumesitesmightbemadeprofitableontheirfuelrevenuesalone,buttherestneedsubstantialnonfuelrevenuestomakeaprofit.
Thestrategicimplicationsareclear.InChinaaselsewhere,thefirstdecisionforanoilcompanyiswhethertoownandoperatesitesormerelytosupplythemwithgasoline.Ifthecompanyoptsforownership,ithasachoice:
toadoptaretailstrategyandpursuenonfuelrevenuesfromaportfolioofretailsitesortotargetonlythehighest-volumesites,usingthemtobuildahigh-qualitygasolinebrandthatcanalsobeofferedthroughindependentretailers.Atpresent,theChineseoilmajorsarepursuingneitherstrategy;theyhavesimplyrushedtograbanyavailablesite,wheretheysellasmuchpetroleum-basedproductaspossiblewhileignoringtheretailpotential.Themultinationalshavebeenmorejudiciousinselectingsitesfortheirinitialjointventures,buttheytoohaveneglectedthestrategicchoice.Unlessallofthesecompanies,domesticandinternationalalike,changetack,theirinvestmentsinexpensiveChineserealestatemayunravel.
Themarketandsiteeconomics
China抯dominantoilcompaniesareSinopec,inthesouthandeast,andPetroChina,whichhasthemorecomprehensiverefineryanddistributionnetworkofthetwo,inthenorthandwest(Exhibit1).Thetwocompaniesaimtocapture,betweenthem,70percentofChina抯gasolinesalesvolumeby2005.SincetheirIPOs,in2000,theyhaveinvestedheavilyinpetroleum-relatedinfrastructureandinbrandbuilding.Havingalreadyraisedtheirshareofsalestomorethan40percentandsecuredmostoftheprimesitesinthebiggestcities,theyareontracktomeetthistarget.
Until2004,multinationalcompanieswillbeallowedtoownoutrightonlythe300orsositestheynowpossessthroughlocaldealsstruckbeforegovernmentderegulationofforeigninvestmentinthesector,inthemid-1990s,buttheycanbuilduptheirholdingsthroughjointventureswithChinesecompanies.BP,ExxonMobil,andRoyalDutch/ShellareestablishingjointventureswithPetroChinaandSinopecbycontributingcapitalforthepurchaseofsitesandbysupplyinghigher-marginpremiumfuels;BPandPetroChina,forexample,aimtoboosttheirholdingsto950stationsbyacquiring670stationsfromlocalcompaniesinFujianandGuangdong.Suchjointventuresbindthepartnersonlyinspecificprovincesandhavesofarbeenformedinjust4outof27ofthem.Fortheremainder,theoptionsofbothpartiesarestillopen.
The60percentofsalesnotcontrolledbythetwoChineseleadersiscurrentlyheldbyvariousquasi-governmentalentities,includinglocalandprovincialauthoritiesandstate-ownedenterprises.Citygovernments,forexample,havestartedtheirownretailinggroups,oftenbuiltaroundlocalhighway-constructionprojects.Someprivateoperatorsarealsoemerging:
forexample,ChinaResourcesEnterprise,aholdingcompanybasedinHongKong,has23stationsandisthinkingaboutopeningmore.Butingeneral,smallercompanies,dauntedbythebiddingpowerofPetroChinaandSinopec,areholdingback.
BothofthemajorshopethattheirspendingwillcreateaprofitablestructureforChina抯gasoline-retailingindustryafterthemarketopensupin2004.Internationalexperienceshowsthatgasolineretailingtendstoberelativelyprofitablewhereverthetopthreeparticipantscontrol80percentofthemarket,growthisstrong,andthesupplyofgasolineisshort.Chinashouldmeetthesecondi