人民币国际化外文文献翻译译文3300字.docx

人民币国际化外文文献翻译译文3300字.docx

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人民币国际化外文文献翻译译文3300字

外文出处：

EichengreenB,KawaiM.TheinternationalmonetarysystemandtheinternationalizationtrendsoftheRMB[J].NationalBureauofEconomicResearch，

TheinternationalmonetarysystemandtheinternationalizationtrendsoftheRMB

EichengreenB,KawaiM

Abstract

Fromthepointofdevelopmentoftheinternationalmonetarysystem,thefuturewillbecometherealisticchoicepatternofdiversityincompetitionoftheinternationalmonetary,internationalfinancialregulationwillbestrengthened,bilateralandmultilateralregionalmonetarycooperationwilldevelopfurther.Fromrequirements,size,liquidity,stabilityoffourdimensionstothecomprehensivejudgment,by2020,RMBinternationalizationlevelwillbemorethanthepoundandtheyen,formedasthecore,withthedollartotheeuroasthekeychallengers,theyuan,yenandsterlingperipheralcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarycompetitivelandscape.By2030,RMBinternationalizationlevelwillreachtheeuro,willformthedollarasthecore,theeuroandtheRMBasthekeychallengers,yenandsterlingperipheralcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarycompetitivelandscape.

Keywords:

TheinternationalizationoftheRMB；Internationalfinancialmonetarysystem;Fianance

1Theinternationalmonetarysystemdevelopment

1.1Afterthefinancialcrisisoftheinternationalmonetarysystem

Afterthe2008financialcrisis,theinternationalsocietygraduallyrealizedthatthecurrentinternationalmonetarysystemisthefundamentalcauseofthecrisis.Thesedefectsinclude:

thedollarastheworld'skeycurrencyfunctionwiththefunctionsofnationalcurrencythereisaconflictbetweenthe"newtriffindilemma",thespillovereffectofreservecurrencyissuingcountrymacroscopicpolicy,alackof"anchorcurrency"leadtodisorderlyexchangeratefluctuations,theIMFlendingcapacityandrepresentative,andsoon.InMr.Woodsdissolvedafterfortyyears,despitethefirstmark,theyen'srise,afterenteringthe21stcenturythecurrencyandbecometheimportantinternationalcurrency,butadominantsituationhasnotchanged.Crisisbrokeout,thesuggestiononreformoftheinternationalmonetarysystem,schemeandcallsconstantly,butthereform.Infact,asearlyas2007,the"fatherofeuro"RobertmundellhavecalledfortheyuanintheSDR（SpecialDrawingRights）system,andthedollartogether,establishanewtypeofdiversifiedinternationalmonetarysystem,tofurtherensurethestabilityofexchangerateandtheworldeconomy.Aftertheinternationalfinancialcrisis,theIMF（internationalmonetaryfund）shareandgovernancereformconstantly,butithasnodefinitereformaction.Onthecontrary,themajorreservecurrencyeconomiesineconomicrecovery,activeimplementationofquantitativeeasing,completelyregardlessofthecapacityofothercountries.Shouldsee,intheabsenceofaunifiedinternationalinstitutionalarrangements,intheinterestsoftheleadingcountriesarenotwillingtogiveuptheircases,thereformoftheinternationalmonetarysystemwillbealong-termprocessofplayingthegame.Theinternationalmonetarypatternwillnotbehindtheinternationaleconomyandinternationaltradepatternchangesforalongtime.InrecentyearstospeedupthedevelopmentofRMBinternationalization,RMBnotonlyhavethemotiveforcetointernationalization,theimprovementoftheinternationalmonetarysystemalsoneedsthesupportoftheyuan.

1.2Theinternationalmonetarysystemdevelopmentprospects

1.2.1Thepluralisticcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarypatternwillbecome

Asarealisticchoiceafterthebrettonwoodssystemofinternationalmonetarysystemisakeyproblemhowtomeasurecanchangethevalueofgoldpaperproblem.Becausethereisno$anchor,unconstrainedtoissuepapermoney.Inordertodeterminetheanchor,canuseindexortheformoftheSDRbasket,andthisisactuallyreturnedtothebrettonwoodssystem,formulatetheKeynesplanortheoriginalwhite.Suchasuper-sovereigncurrencyformclosetothefinaltargetoftheinternationalmonetary,namelytheworldwithaunifiedcurrency,implementationdifficultyistoobig.Setupthediversityofcompetinginternationalreservecurrencysystemistherealstatusofmediumandlongterm.Lookingtothefutureglobalreservesystem,probablybythedollar,theeuro,theyuanandtheyen,thepoundofmultivariatesystem,allkindsofcompetitionbetweencurrency,checksandbalances,mutualaccommodation.Withcompetitionandselectionmechanismtopromotetheinternationalreservecurrencyissuingcountrygovernmenttotakeprudentmonetarypolicy,tokeepitscurrencystable,maintainnationalcredit.In2020,isexpectedtoformwiththedollarasthecore,theeuroasthekeychallengers,theyuan,yenandsterlingperipheralcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarycompetitivelandscape.$2030,theworldwillbeformedasthecore,theeuroandtheyuanasthekeychallengers,yenandsterlingperipheralcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarycompetitivelandscape.

1.2.2Internationalfinancialregulationwillbestrengthened

Theinternationalmoneymarket,likeothercommoditymarkets,alsothereismarketfailure,needtoestablishaperfectsupervisionmechanism.Financialregulatoryauthorities,internationalfinancialorganizationsinallcountriesshouldbefullycommunicationandexchanges,strengthenthefinancialcreditintermediaryserviceinstitutionssuchasnon-traditionalobjectofsupervision,andstrengthentheregulationofinternationalcoordination,eliminatethefinancialregulatoryvacuum.Isexpectedinthefutureinternationalfinancialregulatorysystemwillbemorereasonable,canfullyreflectthepowerofemergingcountriesmatchingpower.OnJuly15,2014,foundedthebricscountriessignedthebricsdevelopmentBanksandestablishthebricsemergencyreservearrangement.Thisportendsrepresentedbythebricsemergingmarketeconomieswillplayanimportantroleintheglobalfinancialgovernanceinthefuture,willpromotetheglobaleconomicgovernancesystemdevelopmentinthedirectionoffairandreasonable.Bigdataandcloudcomputing,thenewtechnologyplatformwillprovidesignificantfinancialriskeffectivemonitoringandearlywarning.Internationalfinancialdataconnectivityabilitywillbegreatlyimproved,theregulatorcancarryonthestatisticsandmonitoringofshort-termcapitalflowsacrossborders,focusandtrackinginternationalfinancialactivities,andcashflow.Theinternationalmonetaryfundwillplaythefunctionoffinancialsecuritycooperationrescue,expandthescaleoftheSpecialDrawingRights（SDRS）,andaccordingtotheproportionofnationaleconomyandtradeintheglobalchange,timelyadjusttheweightinSpecialDrawingRights（SDRS）,themajoremergingeconomiesinthecurrencyintheSDRbasket.Futureoftheinternationalmonetaryfundandthedifferentpartsoftheglobalmonetaryfundtogetherincomplementaryways.Arabianmonetaryfundreservefundhasbeenestablished,andLatinAmericainthefuturealsocanformsomeimportantregionalmonetaryfund,suchastheAsianmonetaryfundandtheEuropeanmonetaryfund.

1.2.3Bilateralandmultilateralregionalmonetarycooperation

Thedevelopmentofthein-depthdevelopmentofthepluralisticcompetitionoftheinternationalmonetarysystemwillformthenucleus-theperipheryoftheinternationalmonetarypattern.Underthispattern,regionalkeycurrencycompetition,areaiscloselylinkedwithkeycurrency,whichrequirestheregionalmonetarycooperationclosely.Inrecentyears,bilateralandmultilateralfreetradeagreementofregionaldevelopment,andtoreducetransactioncosts,improveriskpreventioncapacity,regionalcurrencieswillbemorecohesive,asidefromathirdpartycurrencycurrencycross-borderusecurrencyorchangewillbecometheimportantform.Growingeconomictiesbetweencountriesintheworldsituation,acountry'sfinancialproblems,tendtoappearinachainreaction.Inordertomaintaintheinternationalfinancialsecurity,thejointrescuemechanismbetweencountrieswilldevelop.SetupaftertheAsianfinancialcrisisoftheChiangmaiinitiative"issuchakindofaction.Monetarycooperationstateinthemoneysupply,demandandcirculationwillsharemoreinformation,whenmeetingmajorriskscanbemutualcooperation,formtheregionalmonetaryalliancenetwork.

2RMBinternationalizationlevel

Aftertheinternationalfinancialcrisisin2008,theinternationalmarketisincreasinglystrongdemandfortheyuan,theinnermotivepowerofChina'sfinancialreformistostrengthen,theaccelerationofRMBinternationalization.Inthepastfewyears,Chinabegantopromoteaseriesofreform,acceleratingtheuseoftheRMBininternationaltradeandinvestmentinthebreadthanddepth,suchascurrencyswapagreementtoacceleratetheyuan'soutput,establishingRMBoffshoremarketforoffshoreyuanselfcirculation,making2020constructionofShanghaiinternationalfinancialcenter,intheinternationalfinancialmarketlaunchofrenminbi-denominatedfinancialproducts,formulatepoliciestopromotedirectuseoftheRMBininternationaltradesettlement,andsoon.Intheinternalandexternalfactors,theinternationalisationoftherenminbi'slevelhasbeenimprovedgreatly.Intermsofpaymentandsettlement,globalinterbankfinancialtelecommunicationsassociation（SWIFT）,accordingtodatafromApril2014RMBmarketshareof1.43%,wasrankedseventh,forsixmonthsinarowamongtheworld'stenbiggestpaymoney.2013RMBbecomethesecondlargesttradefinancingcurrency.Thebankforinternationalsettlements,accordingtothelatestreport2013yuanamongtheworld'stenbiggestforeignexchangecurrency,averagedail