The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx

The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx

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TheEffectsofCarbonTariffsonChinaSteelExportsAnalysis译文

TheEffectsofCarbonTariffsonChinaSteelExportsAnalysis

ShipingWANG

SchoolofBusinessJiujiangUniversity,Jiujiang,China

Abstract:

Inrecentyears,Chinasteelindustryhaswonrapiddevelopment.However,dealingwithclimatechangeanddevelopingalowcarboneconomywillbecometheconsensusoftheinternationalcommunityaftertheUnitedNationsClimateChangeConferenceinCopenhagenandCancunClimateConference2009.Allthecountriesshouldpayhighattentiontothelowcarboneconomytoprotectglobalatmosphere.Inthiscondition,thedevelopedcountriesareseekingtolevy“carbontariffs”tochangecurrentglobalwarmingandgreenhousegasreducingproblemsandto“restraintheunfaircompetitionfromChina”.

Keywords:

Carbontariff;China;Steelindustry

1Introduction

Carbontariffreferstothespecialtariffleviedbytheimportcountryiftheproductsproducedbyacountrycannotuptotheenergysavingandemittingreducingstandardstipulatedbytheimportcountry,thiskindoftariffmainlyleviedonthecarbonextensivelygoods,suchasAL,steel,andsoon.TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeprovidestheopportunityforthedevelopedcountriestolevycarbontariffs.DuringSept.1992,intheenvironmentanddevelopmentmeetingoftheUNheldinBrazilRiodeJaneiro,totally192countriessignedTheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangetoprotecttheglobalenvironment.In1997,thesecountriessignedKyotoProtocol.InJun.22,2009,AmericanCleanEnergyandSecurityBillwaspassedbyTheHouseofRepresentatives,Americanhasrighttolevytariffontheimportedgoodsfromthecountrywhichdonotenforcecarbonemittingreducingrestrictionsfrom2020.OnDec.24，2009,intheMembersoftheEUEnvironmentMinistersInformalMeeting,FranceputforwardtolevycarbontariffontheimportedgoodsfromthecountrywhichisnotasstrictasEUontheaspectofenvironmentlegislationfrom2010torestricttheunfaircompetitionfromChinaandtheothercountries.

2ConditionoftheChinasteelexport

From2003to2007,averageannualincreasingspeedofChinasteeloutputis21%,averageannualexportspeedofsteelisaround46.5%.However,during2008,Chinasteelexporthasthetendencyofparabola.Inthefirsthalfof2008,Chinasteelexporthastheupwardtendency.DuringAugust,theexportis768milliontons.FromSept.,steelexportsdecreasemonthbymonth,theaveragedecreaseisupto26.7%.During2008,thetotalsteelexportis5923milliontons,whichdecreasesaround5.5%comparingwith2007.Inthefirstquarterof2009,thedataofChinasteelexportisvibrating.Fromthenon,theexportincreasespermonthandrealizesthe8monthcontinuousimprovingand7-monthincrease.In2009,Chinasteelexportis2610milliontons,importis2326milliontons,thenetexportis284milliontons,whichdecreasesgreatlycomparingwiththeyear2008.Chinasteelexportsgothroughthegloomiestyearafter2006.During2010,steelexportis4256milliontons,increase73%comparingwith2009.From1to7,theexportincrease1.52timesthanthesameperiodof2009,from8to12,theexportincreasespeeddecreasesto7.4%;importsteel1643milliontons,decreasing6.8%,importbillet64milliontons,decreasing86.1%[1].Themainreasonisthemoreandmoreinternationaltradeprotection,hotmarketcompetition,increasingRMBappreciationpressure,cancelling9%tariffreturnedafterexportofsomesteels,highpressureofstructuralsteeloutputsurplus.

3EffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

3.1AnalysisofChinasteelexportcarbonemission

In2005,carbonemissioninChinaisabout18%oftheglobalemission,whichisthesecondplacejustbelowAmerica;carbonemissionofthepercapitaisratherlow.Thepercapitaemissionin2005isabout3.9tons,whichislowerby4.2tonthantheglobalaveragelevelbutthecarbonemissionintensityofChinaishigh.In2006,theCO2emissioninChinais6.2billionmetricton,whichisaboveAmericaandtakesthefirstplaceintheworld.ItisestimatedthatthegrowingspeedofthesteelproductioninChina,India,andBrazilwillbethehighestinthecomingtenyears.EventhoughChinarealizetheaimwhichreducestheunitGDPcarbonemissionby40%-45%than2005,itwillstillincreasethetotalcarbonemissionby75%-90%,thatis5.5to6.8billionmetrictonCO2,whichishigherthanthepresenttotalemissionoftheEU[2].

3.2EffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

1）OpportunitiesbroughtbycarbontarifftoChinasteelexport

Foralongtime,Chinahastoadopttheextensivemodeofeconomicgrowthbecauseoftherestrictionsoflargenumbersofpeople,lowtechnologydevelopment,andsoon,whichinevitablycausesresourcewastingandenvironmentpollution.Withtheadventofcarbon,Chinasteelhastochangetraditionaldevelopmentformandadoptneweconomicstructurefocusingonlowcarbon,whichwillacceleratethetransformationofthetraditionalindustryandthedevelopmentofthenewindustryandpromoteChinatobeoneofthebiggestlowcarbonsteelexportcountriesintheworld.CarbontariffbringsthebrilliantprospectsandopportunitiesforChinasteelexportandadvancesthetimetableoftheChinalowcarbondevelopment.CarbontariffbringsbothpressuresandopportunitiestoChinasteelexport.

2）AdverseeffectsofcarbontariffonChinasteelexport

a）Increasingexportcostsanddecreasingcompetingability

EuropeandAmericaarethemainexportmarketsofChinasteel,theylevycarbontariffactively.AmongthemainChineseexports,unitcarbonvalueofsomelabor-intensiveproductsisnothigh,whiletheexportvolumeofthesegoodsishigh.Forexample,carbonvalueofshoesandclothesisaround7%,someelectronicgoodsaswashingmachines,air-conditionersandTVsetsisbelow5%.Buttheadditionalvalueofthesegoodsisverylow,theaverageprofitsofChinamechanicalandelectronicindustriesarearound3%-6%.Therefore,theseindustriesareverysensitivetothefluctuationofthetariff.Forthebulkofexportproducts,theunitcarbonvalueofsteelishigh,whichis17%,ifthecarbontariffislevied,steelexportwillbeeffectedseriously.TheresearchexportoftheWorldBankpointsoutthatifcarbontariffiswidelyadopted,Chinasteelwillbelevied26%tariffs,theexportwilldecrease21%.

b）DecreasingofSteelExports

IfpertonoftheChinesehigh-energy-consuminggoodsisleviedtariffofUSD30orUSD60,Chinasteelexportwilldecrease3.53%and6.95%,what’smore,theaboveeffectsarecontinuous.CGEmodelwasadoptedtoanalyzetheeffectsofUSD30orUSD60carbontariffstotheproduction,exportandemploymentofsteelindustry,theeffectsmanifestthatifUSD30islevied,steelexportdecreases3.53%,totaloutputdecreases0.62%inthefirstyear,inthesecondyear,exportandoutputdecrease3.01%and0.49%respectively;ifUSD60islevied,steelexportdecreases6.95%,totaloutputdecreases1.22%inthefirstyear,inthesecondyear,exportandoutputdecrease5.97%and0.97%respectively.UnderthelevystandardofUSD30,Chinaproductionindustrywillneedatleast5yearstodigesttheadverseeffectsofthecarbontariffandmorethan7yearstoeliminateattacksofthecarbontarifftosteelexport.Furthermore,theoutputdecreaseofthe5industriescausedbycarbontariffissuccessivelyinstrumentationandofficemachinerymanufacturingindustry,textileindustry,leatherclothinganddownproductsindustry,electricalmachineryandelectroniccommunicationequipmentmanufacturingindustry[3].Amongthem,themostseriouslyaffectedisinstrumentationandofficemachinerymanufacturingindustry,itsoutputdecrease3.5%undertheUSD30carbontariff,ifUSD60islevied,itsoutputdecreases6.96%;theoutputofthetextileindustrydecreases1.6%undertheUSD30carbontariff,and3.18%underUSD60.

c）DeterioratingofsteelexportTradeterms

Thesteelexportcostscontinuousincreaseasaresultofthecarbontariffleviedbythedevelopedcountries.BecausetheChinalaborresourcesendowmentisrestrictedandthedevelopedcountrieshavetechnologyadvantages,thecarbontariffsleviedbythedevelopedcountriesforceChinatoimportthenewenvironmentalprotectivetechnology,newenergy,equipmentandproduct.Itwillformnewtechnologygapandenlargetechnologydifferences,whichwillformnewproductandtechnologyexportadvantagesofthedevelopedcountriesandincreasetheexportpriceofthedevelopedcountriesandthelowexportpriceofChineseproducts,includingsteel.ThedevelopedcountriesadoptcarbontariffinnameofenvironmentprotectionwillcausethedevelopingcountriesincludingChinatoadopttheretaliatingtradebarrierswhichwillbreedingtheprotectionismandresulttheineffectivenessoftheinternationaltraderulesandtheconfusionofthetradepattern.TheinternationaltradestepofChinawillbeblockedandthetradedisputesbetweenChinaandthedevelopedcountrieswillincrease.Forexample,EUdecidedtotakeaviationindustryintothecarbonemittingsystem,morethan2000aviationcompanieswillbeforcedtopayhighcarbonemittingfeesfortheplanestakingoffandlandingontheEUairport,thismeasurewillmakeChinaairlinestopay8hundredmillionYuan.Inaddition,thenewenvironmentprotectionlawpassedonJune,12,2010inFrancerequirestheproductssoldintheFrancmarkettorevealtheenvironmentinformationoftheproducts,includingthewholelifecycle（fromrawmaterial,production,transportation,disposalandcollection）andthecontentofcarbon.England,Japan,American,Sweden,Canada,Koreaalsohavesuchkindoflegislatio