The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文.docx

1、The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports Analysis译文The Effects of Carbon Tariffs on China Steel Exports AnalysisShiping WANGSchool of Business Jiujiang University, Jiujiang, ChinaAbstract: In recent years, China steel industry has won rapid development. However, dealing with climate chan

2、ge and developing a low carbon economy will become the consensus of the international community after the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen and Cancun Climate Conference 2009. All the countries should pay high attention to the low carbon economy to protect global atmosphere. In

3、this condition, the developed countries are seeking to levy “carbon tariffs” to change current global warming and greenhouse gas reducing problems and to “restrain the unfair competition from China”.Keywords: Carbon tariff; China; Steel industry1 IntroductionCarbon tariff refers to the special tarif

4、f levied by the import country if the products produced by a country cannot up to the energy saving and emitting reducing standard stipulated by the import country, this kind of tariff mainly levied on the carbon extensively goods, such as AL, steel, and so on. The United Nations Framework Conventio

5、n on Climate Change provides the opportunity for the developed countries to levy carbon tariffs. During Sept. 1992, in the environment and development meeting of the UN held in Brazil Rio de Janeiro, totally 192 countries signed The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to protect th

6、e global environment. In 1997, these countries signed Kyoto Protocol. In Jun. 22, 2009, American Clean Energy and Security Bill was passed by The House of Representatives, American has right to levy tariff on the imported goods from the country which do not enforce carbon emitting reducing restricti

7、ons from 2020. On Dec. 24，2009, in the Members of the EU Environment Ministers Informal Meeting, France put forward to levy carbon tariff on the imported goods from the country which is not as strict as EU on the aspect of environment legislation from 2010 to restrict the unfair competition from Chi

8、na and the other countries.2 Condition of the China steel exportFrom 2003 to 2007, average annual increasing speed of China steel output is 21%, average annual export speed of steel is around 46.5%. However, during 2008, China steel export has the tendency of parabola. In the first half of 2008, Chi

9、na steel export has the upward tendency. During August, the export is 768 million tons. From Sept., steel exports decrease month by month, the average decrease is up to 26.7%. During 2008, the total steel export is 5923 million tons, which decreases around 5.5% comparing with 2007. In the first quar

10、ter of 2009, the data of China steel export is vibrating. From then on, the export increases per month and realizes the 8month continuous improving and 7-month increase. In 2009, China steel export is 2610 million tons, import is 2326 million tons, the net export is 284 million tons, which decreases

11、 greatly comparing with the year 2008. China steel exports go through the gloomiest year after 2006. During 2010, steel export is 4256 million tons, increase 73% comparing with 2009. From 1to 7, the export increase 1.52 times than the same period of 2009, from 8 to 12, the export increase speed decr

12、eases to 7.4%; import steel 1643 million tons, decreasing 6.8%, import billet 64 million tons, decreasing 86.1%1. The main reason is the more and more international trade protection, hot market competition, increasing RMB appreciation pressure, cancelling 9% tariff returned after export of some stee

13、ls, high pressure of structural steel output surplus.3 Effects of carbon tariff on China steel export3.1 Analysis of China steel export carbon emissionIn 2005, carbon emission in China is about 18% of the global emission, which is the second place just below America; carbon emission of the per capit

14、a is rather low. The per capita emission in 2005 is about 3.9 tons, which is lower by 4.2 ton than the global average level but the carbon emission intensity of China is high. In 2006, the CO2 emission in China is 6.2 billion metric ton, which is above America and takes the first place in the world.

15、 It is estimated that the growing speed of the steel production in China, India, and Brazil will be the highest in the coming ten years. Even though China realize the aim which reduces the unit GDP carbon emission by 40%-45% than 2005, it will still increase the total carbon emission by 75%-90%, tha

16、t is 5.5to 6.8 billion metric ton CO2, which is higher than the present total emission of the EU 2.3.2 Effects of carbon tariff on China steel export1) Opportunities brought by carbon tariff to China steel exportFor a long time, China has to adopt the extensive mode of economic growth because of the

17、 restrictions of large numbers of people, low technology development, and so on, which inevitably causes resource wasting and environment pollution. With the advent of carbon, China steel has to change traditional development form and adopt new economic structure focusing on low carbon, which will a

18、ccelerate the transformation of the traditional industry and the development of the new industry and promote China to be one of the biggest low carbon steel export countries in the world. Carbon tariff brings the brilliant prospects and opportunities for China steel export and advances the timetable

19、 of the China low carbon development. Carbon tariff brings both pressures and opportunities to China steel export.2) Adverse effects of carbon tariff on China steel exporta) Increasing export costs and decreasing competing abilityEurope and America are the main export markets of China steel, they le

20、vy carbon tariff actively. Among the main Chinese exports, unit carbon value of some labor-intensive products is not high, while the export volume of these goods is high. For example, carbon value of shoes and clothes is around 7%, some electronic goods as washing machines, air-conditioners and TV s

21、ets is below 5%. But the additional value of these goods is very low, the average profits of China mechanical and electronic industries are around 3%-6%. Therefore, these industries are very sensitive to the fluctuation of the tariff. For the bulk of export products, the unit carbon value of steel i

22、s high, which is 17%, if the carbon tariff is levied, steel export will be effected seriously. The research export of the World Bank points out that if carbon tariff is widely adopted, China steel will be levied 26% tariffs, the export will decrease 21%.b) Decreasing of Steel ExportsIf per ton of th

23、e Chinese high-energy-consuming goods is levied tariff of USD30 or USD60, China steel export will decrease 3.53% and 6.95%, whats more, the above effects are continuous. CGE model was adopted to analyze the effects of USD30 or USD60 carbon tariffs to the production, export and employment of steel in

24、dustry, the effects manifest that if USD30 is levied, steel export decreases 3.53%, total output decreases 0.62% in the first year, in the second year, export and output decrease 3.01% and 0.49% respectively; if USD60is levied, steel export decreases 6.95%, total output decreases 1.22% in the first

25、year, in the second year, export and output decrease 5.97% and 0.97% respectively. Under the levy standard of USD30, China production industry will need at least 5 years to digest the adverse effects of the carbon tariff and more than 7 years to eliminate attacks of the carbon tariff to steel export

26、. Furthermore, the output decrease of the 5 industries caused by carbon tariff is successively instrumentation and office machinery manufacturing industry, textile industry, leather clothing and down products industry, electrical machinery and electronic communication equipment manufacturing industr

27、y3. Among them, the most seriously affected is instrumentation and office machinery manufacturing industry, its output decrease 3.5% under the USD30 carbon tariff, if USD60 is levied, its output decreases 6.96%; the output of the textile industry decreases1.6% under the USD30 carbon tariff, and 3.18

28、% under USD60.c) Deteriorating of steel export Trade termsThe steel export costs continuous increase as a result of the carbon tariff levied by the developed countries. Because the China labor resources endowment is restricted and the developed countries have technology advantages, the carbon tariff

29、s levied by the developed countries force China to import the new environmental protective technology, new energy, equipment and product. It will form new technology gap and enlarge technology differences, which will form new product and technology export advantages of the developed countries and in

30、crease the export price of the developed countries and the low export price of Chinese products, including steel. The developed countries adopt carbon tariff in name of environment protection will cause the developing countries including China to adopt the retaliating trade barriers which will breed

31、ing the protectionism and result the ineffectiveness of the international trade rules and the confusion of the trade pattern. The international trade step of China will be blocked and the trade disputes between China and the developed countries will increase. For example, EU decided to take aviation

32、 industry into the carbon emitting system, more than 2000 aviation companies will be forced to pay high carbon emitting fees for the planes taking off and landing on the EU airport, this measure will make China airlines to pay 8 hundred million Yuan. In addition, the new environment protection law p

33、assed on June, 12, 2010 in France requires the products sold in the Franc market to reveal the environment information of the products, including the whole life cycle (from raw material, production, transportation, disposal and collection) and the content of carbon. England, Japan, American, Sweden, Canada , Korea also have such kind of legislatio