unit8text1 the art of smart guessing1文档格式.docx

unit8text1 the art of smart guessing1文档格式.docx

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.Hereitis.

2.YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepestpoint,theMarianaTrench³

.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poundcannonballovertheside.HowlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheOcean?

⒊Beforereadingon,pleasetrytosolvethisyourself—payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit?

⒋Didyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecause“therewasn’tenoughinformation”?

didyougettooboggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe”exactlyright”answer？

Ordidyouzeroinonthetowmostimportantproblems—howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater–thenhazardaguesstimate?

⒌Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess,thinkingthattheycouldn’tbe100-percentright4.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.

⒍Whatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativity?

agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Formwhatfoodsweeattohowtoraiseourkids,creativepeoplemustthinkforthemselves.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneytomakesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.

⒎Suppose,forexample,you’vebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyourname,company,addressandtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherperson’sphone.inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersandelectronicsstores,you’dliketoknowthenumberof“phonestores”intheunitedstates.Unfortunately,thisfigureisnotavailable,eitherfromthemarket-re-searchhousesorfromtheU.S.government.Whatdoyoudo?

⒏Onesolutionwouldbetogotoyourlocallibrary,pulloutafewphonedirectoriesfromaroundthecountry,turntotheyellowpagesandstartcounting.Youcouldthenguesstimatehowmanystoresper100,000peopleineachofthecitiesyoucounted.This,bytheway,isexactlywhatamarketingconsultantIknowdidforalargetelecommunicationsclient.

⒐ThequestionaboutphonestoreswasanexampleofwhatscientistcallaFermiproblem,namesafternobleprize-winningscientistenricoFermi5,whousesproblemssuchasthistoteachhisstudentshowtothinkforthemselves.aFermiproblemdoesnotcontainalltheinformationyouneedtosolveitprecisely.

⒑FermiissaidtohaveonceaskedhisuniversitystudentshowmanypianotunerstherewereinChicago,toanswerthequestion,herecommendedbreakingitdownintosmaller,moremanageablequestion,andthenhavingthecouragetomakesomeguessesandassumptions.HowmanypeopleliveinChicago?

Threemillionwouldbeareasonableestimate,howmanypeopleperfamily?

Assumeanaverageoffour.Howmanyfamiliesownpianos?

Sayoneoutofthree.Thentherewereabout250,000pianosinChicago.Howoftenwouldeachbetuned?

Maybeonceeveryfiveyears.Thatmakes50,000tuningsayear.Howmanypianoscanonetunerinaday?

Four?

Andhowmanyinayear?

Assuming250workingdays,onetunercanhandle1,000pianosayear.

⒒Sothere’sworkforapproximately50pianotunersinChicago—which,asitturnsout,isreasonablyclosetotheactualnumberintheyellowpages.

⒓Whywasguessworksoaccurate?

Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsible.Atanypoint,yourassumptionsmaybetoohighortoolow.Butbecauseofthelawofaverages,yourmistakeswillfrequentlybalanceout.

⒔Here’sanotherpuzzle.Youprobablyalreadyknowthatblackabsorbsthemostheat,whilewhitereflectsthemost.Butwhatabouttheothercolorsinbetween?

Howcouldyoufindtheanswer?

Hint:

it’swintertime,butnottoocold.

14.BenFranklin’solutionwaselegant.Hesimplylaidbroadclothsamplesofvariouscolorsonthesnowonasunnymorning.“inafewhours,”hereported,”theblack,beingwarmedmostbythesun,wassunksolowastobebelowthestrokeofthesun’srays;

thedarkblue,almostaslow;

thelighterbluenotquitesomuchasthedark;

theothercolors,lessastheywerelighter,andthequitewhiteremainedonthesurfaceofthesnow,nothavingenteringitatall.”

⒖Oneofmyfavorite“guesstimators”isWeston,Conn.,inventorStanmason6,whodevelopmicrowavecookwarespeciallydesignedtopositionfoodinthebestspotforcooking.

⒗Todothis,masonneededtoknowwherethemicrowave’s“hotspots”were—theplacewheretherayshitthefoodwiththehighestintensity.Tofindout,heputshelvesofunpoppeddiscoveredapatternintheoven’shottestrays:

theyweren’tinthecornersoratthecenter,butintheshapeofamushroomcloud.

⒘Thenhedesignedcookingdishestofitthepattern.Hehadcomeupwitharesourcefulwaytoapproximatetheanswerratherthanusingscientificallysophisticatedtestingequipment.

⒙Fermiwouldhaveapproved7.

⒚Bytheway,theMarianatrenchisaboutsixnauticalmilesdeep,andacannonballdropsatarateoftenfeetpersecond.Soittookthecannonballaboutanhourtoreachthebottomofthetrench.

⒛Couldthisbeguessed?

Ifyouknowthatearth’shighestpointmountqomolangma,is29,000feet,youmightreasonablyconcludethatitslowestpointwouldbeclosetothesamedistance.Thenyoumightimaginethataheavyobjectwouldtakeonesecondtofallthroughthewaterofa10-foot-deepswimmingpool.Theseestimateswouldbringyoucloseenoughtothecorrectanswer.

GLOSSARY

Resourcefulclient

Hiretuner

Navigatortune

Accidentallyguesswork

Cannonballbalanceout

Bogdownbroadcloth

Zeroinstroke

Hazardcookware

Guesstimateunpopped

Approximationpopcorn

Visualkernel

Conventionalpop

Outletapproximate

Massmerchandisersophisticated

Telecommunicationsnautical

Notes

1.AbouttheauthorBryanw.Mattimore,presidentoftheMattimoregroupconsultingcompanyinStamford,Connecticut,majorsinappliedbusinesscreativity,andhasdesignedandfacilitatedideationprogramforsuchorganizationsasPepsico,Haagen-Dazs,AT&

T,HeleneCurtis,andtheU.S.Government.AcunlaudegraduateofDartmouth,hewritestheannual”breakthroughides”coverstoryforsuccessmagazine.Heisauthorof99%inspiration;

tips,tales&

techniquesforliberatingyourbusinesscreativity（1993）,fromwhichthecurrenttextistaken.

2.Tofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbetofindoutwhethertheprospectiveemployeewouldbegoodatfindingwaysofdealingwithproblems,andhowgoodheorshemightbe.

3.TheMarianatrench

adepressioninthefloorofthePacificOcean,thedeepestseafloordepressionintheworld.ItislocatedjusteastoftheMarianaislandsinthewesternortoftheoceanbasin,whichembracesthedeepestpointonearth;

thechallengerdeep,whichisestimatedtobe11,033m（36,198ft）deep.

4.thinkingthatiftheycouldn’tbe100-percentright（paragragh5）consideringthattheycouldn’tbecompletelyrightanyway.

5.Fermi,enrico（1901—1954）,Italian-bornAmericanphysicistandnobelprizewinner,whomadeimportantcontributiontoboththeoreticalandexperimentalphysics.Fermi’sbest-knowcontributionwasthedemonstrationofthefirstcontrolledatomicfissionreaction.Hewonthe1938NobelPrizeinphysicsforhisworkinbombardingatomswithneutrons,subatomicparticleswithnoelectriccharge.

6.Stanmason（paragragh15）bornin1921inTrenton,NewJersey,masoncreatedhisfirstinventionattheageof7;

aclothespinfishinglurethathesoldtohisfriends,masoncallshimself”aninventorofordinary,everydayproduct—nothigh-tech,butcommon,usefulthings.”inthelast50years,hisover100inventionsand55patentsincludethesqueezableketchupbottle,granolabars,heatedpizzaboxes,heatproofplasticmicrowavecookware,stringlessband-aidpackaging,dentalflossdispensers,and”instant”splintsandcastsforbrokenlimbs.

7.fermiwouldhaveapproved（paragraph18）ifFermihadknownwhatmasonwasdoing,hewouldhaveapplaudedit.

Textcomprehension

Ⅰ.decidewhichofthefollowingbeststatestheauthor’spurpose

A.Tointroduceneffectivemethodofinterviewingcandidates.

B.Todecideonanewquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkermightbe.

C.Toprovidenaccesstogainingnecessaryinformation.

D.Torecommendacreativemodelofthinkingindecisionmaking.

Ⅱ.judge,accordingtothetext,whetherthefollowingstatementsretrueorfalse

1.Theauthoraskedthereaderstopaycloseattentiontothemethodtobeusedinsolvingthequizquestion.

2.Thebestwaytoknowthenumberof“phonestores“intheunitedstatesistogotothelocallibrarytodostatisticalresearch.

3.Toillustratethesmartguessingapproach,theauthorhascitedalltogethersevenexamples.

4.Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsiblefortheaccuracyofourguessworkbecauseourassumptionsatthetwoextremesusuallybalanceout.

Ⅲ.answerthefollowingquestion.

1.Whydidtheauthordecideonaone-questionquizintheinterview?

2.Whatdoestheauthorsuggestasthebestsolutiontothequizquestion?

3.Whatdoesthesolutiontosuchquizquestionsmeantobusinessorcreativity?

4.Whatdoscientistscallsuchquesti