经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文最新Word格式文档下载.docx

经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文最新Word格式文档下载.docx

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Abstract

Inthispaper,weexaminetherelationshipbetweenthestructureoftherealeconomyandacountry'

sfinancialsystem.Weconsiderwhetherthedevelopmentoftherealeconomicstructurecanpredictthedirectionofevolutionofacountry'

sfinancialstructure.Usingdatafor108countries,wefindasignificantrelationshipbetweenrealeconomicstructureandfinancialstructure.Next,weexploitshockstotheeconomiesinIndia,FinlandandSweden,andSouthKoreaandshowthatchangesintheeconomicstructureofacountryinfluencetheevolutionofitsfinancialsystem.Thissuggeststhatfinancialinstitutionsandcapitalmarketschangeinresponsetothestructureofindustries.

Keywords：

Financialsystem，Economicstructure

Introduction

Thestructuresoffinancialsystemsvaryamongindustrialanddevelopingcountries.Insomecountries,financialsystemsarepredominantlybank-based,whileinotherstheyaredominatedbycapitalmarkets.Onlyfragmentedtheoriesexistintheliteraturethatexplaintheprevailingdifferencesincountryfinancialstructures,whicharedefinedasthemixoffinancialmarkets,institutions,instruments,andcontractsthatprescribehowfinancialactivitiesareorganizedataparticulardate.

Theexistingstudiesexplaintheprevailingdifferencesinfinancialstructuresusinglegaloriginandprotection,politics,history,andcultureasfactors.Thispaperconsidersthelinkbetweentherealeconomicstructureandthefinancialsystemofacountry.Sucharelationshipisinfluencedbythefundingsourcesforcorporateinvestmentthatdifferdependingonfirmandprojectcharacteristics（Allen,1993;

BootandThakor,1997;

AllenandGale,1999）.Consistentwiththistheory,banksaremoreappropriateforthefinancingoftraditionalasset-intensiveindustries,whereascapitalmarketsfavourinnovativeandriskyprojects.Oneimplicationofthistheoryisthattherealeconomicstructureofacountry,whetheritisassetintensiveorserviceoriented,coulddetermineitsfinancialstructure.Forinstance,financialsystemsincountriessuchasGermanyandJapanwouldremainbank-basedaslongastheireconomiesaredominatedbymanufacturingindustries.Contrastingly,thefinancialsystemintheUnitedStateswillcontinuetobemarket-orientedaslongasserviceandhighlyinnovativecompaniesconstitutealargeshareoftheeconomy.Consequently,thefinancialsystemsoftheUnitedStates,Germany,orJapanwillremainatpolarextremesbecauseoftheireconomicstructureseventhoughthecountriesareatasimilarstageofdevelopment.

Robinson（1952） 

arguesthatfinancialintermediariesandmarketsemergewhenrequiredbyindustries.Consequently,intermediariesandmarketsappearinresponsetoeconomicstructure.Theideathattheformoffinancing,andthusthecountry'

sfinancialstructure,dependsonthetypeofactivitythatfirmsengageinhasnotyetbeendirectlyaddressedintheliterature.Toprovideevidenceofthehypothesisthatstructureandchangesintherealeconomydeterminethedirectionofevolutionofacountry'

sfinancialsystem,wefirstmustdistinguishthedifferentfinancialstructuresacrosscountries.However,althoughrecentattentionhasshiftedtoamoresystematicclassificationoffinancialsystems,theliteratureprovidesonlyverybroadmeasuresanddefinitionsforclassification.Consistentwiththeliteraturethisstudyclassifiesacountry'

sfinancialsystemaseitherbank-based（theGermanorJapanesemodel）ormarket-based（theAnglo-Saxonmodel）.Inthebank-basedfinancialsystem,financialintermediariesplayanimportantrolebymobilisingsavings,allocatingcredit,andfacilitatingthehedging,pooling,andpricingofrisks.Inthemarket-basedfinancialsystem,capitalmarketsarethemainchannelsoffinanceintheeconomy（AllenandGale,2000）.

Ourtheorybuildson 

RajanandZingales（2003a） 

whonotethatbank-basedsystemstendtohaveacomparativeadvantageinfinancingfixed-asset-intensivefirmsratherthanhightechnologyresearchanddevelopment-basedfirms. 

arguethatfixed-asset-intensivefirmsaretypicallymoretraditionalandwellunderstood,andtheborrowerhasthecollateraltoenticefreshlendersiftheexistingonesproveoverlydemanding.Asper 

RajanandZingales（2003a）,loansarewellcollateralisedbyphysicalassets,andthereforeareliquid;

hence,theconcentrationofinformationinthesystemwillnotbeabarriertothefinancingoftheseassets.Conversely,theauthorsarguethatmarket-basedsystemswillhaveacomparativeadvantageinfinancingknowledgeindustrieswith 

intangibleassets.

Consequently,wesuggestthatcountrieswithamajorityofphysical-asset-intensivefirms,dependingonexternalfinance,willbemorelikelytopossessabank-orientedfinancialsystem.However,capitalmarketsshoulddevelopmoreeffectivelyincountrieswithfirmsthatarebasedonknowledgeandintangibleassets.Wetestthishypothesisbyidentifyingfixed-asset-intensivefirmswithintheeconomicsectordefinedasindustrybythestandardclassificationsystemforeconomicactivity.Conversely,inthisstudytheservicesectoractsasaproxyforknowledgeandintangibleassetfirms.Therelativeimportanceofthetwotypesoffirmsinaneconomywillberepresentedbytherelativevolumeofactivityofthetwodifferenteconomicsectors.Thestandardsystemofclassificationforeconomicactivityincludesathirdsector,agriculture.Weclassifyagricultureasaphysical-asset-intensiveindustrybecauselandandagriculturalmachinerymaybeusedascollateraland,therefore,weassumethatfirmsintheagriculturalsectorwillpreferbankfinancingovercapitalmarkets.

Wefirstpresentsomehistoricalevidenceshowingthenexusbetweenrealeconomicstructureandfinancialsystem.Inordertotestouroutlinedhypothesis,weuseapaneldatasetfor108countriesandemployboththepanelOLSandatwo-step 

generalised-method-of-moments 

（GMM）system.Additionally,weinvestigatetherobustnessoftheresultsbyintroducingdifferentadditionalcontrolvariablesandtestingtheheterogenouseffects.Theresultssuggestthatthereisanegativeandsignificantrelationshipbetweenacountry'

seconomicstructure（industryversusservicesector）andfinancialsystemstructure（stockmarketversusbankingsector）.Ineconomieswheretheservicesectorcarriesmoreweighteconomicallythanindustryandagriculture,thecountrytendstohaveamarket-basedfinancialsystem.Incontrast,abank-basedfinancialsystemismorelikelytoemergeineconomieswithmanyfixed-asset-intensivefirms.

Next,weconducteventstudiesusingthe 

treatmenteffect 

estimationtoisolatetheendogeneityconcerns.Weanalysedifferenttypesofexogenousshocktothestructureoftherealeconomyanditsimpactonfinancialstructure.Weemploythreeeventsthatchangedtheeconomicstructuresofthecountriesandfurtherinvestigatetheirimpactonthefinancialstructureusinga 

difference-in-difference 

strategy.ThefirsteventisIndia'

sstructuralreformsin1991asapositiveshocktothecountry'

seconomy;

thesecondoneisthedemiseoftheSovietUnionasanegativeshocktotheeconomyofFinlandandSweden;

thethirdoneistheeconomicreformsinthe1980sandearly1990sinSouthKorea.InIndiaandSouthKoreawefindthatafterthestructuralreformsoftheeconomies,theservicesectorgrewinrelativetermsandthestockmarketsinbothcountriesexperiencedsignificantlyfastergrowththantheirbankingsystems,comparedtothecontrolcountries.InFinlandandSwedenwedocumentthatfollowingthenegativeshocktheservicesectorgainedinrelativeimportance,whichwasfollowedbythefastergrowthoftheequitymarketincomparisontothebankingsystem.Overall,theresultsofthethreedifferenteventstudiesconfirmourhypothesisthattherelativeimportanceoffinancialintermediariesandmarketsisdeterminedbytheindustryneedsofacountry.

Thefindingsofthisstudyareinterestingfromaregulatoryperspectiveandlendinsightintothedevelopmentoffinancialstructuresworldwide.Themainpolicyimplicationsfromthisstudyarethatfinancialstructuresshouldbeevaluatedintermsofwhethertheymeettherequirementsoftherealeconomyandindustries.Furthermorethefinancialstructurecannotbechangedaslongastheeconomicstructuredoesnotchange.Theresultsprovideinsightintothereasonsforlimitedcapitalmarketsgrowthindevelopingcountriesdespiteofficialstimulationeffortsfromgovernmentsandmultilateralorganisations（Schmukleretal.,2007）.Accordingtoourstudyofmanydevelopingcountries,aslongaseconomiesremainrelativelyagriculture-andindustry-oriented,anygovernmentefforttocreateorfurtherdevelopacapitalmarketislikelytonottobeverysuccessful.Additionally,anyregulationthatattemptstoforceachangeinthefinancialsystemmayresultinadiscrepancyintheeconomicandfinancialstructure.Therefore,sucheffortsorregulationsmayintroducefinancialconstraintsthatcanfurtherstalleconomicgrowthbecausefinancialstructureinfluencesoutputlevelsandeconomicgrowth（LevineandZervos,1998;

Luinteletal.,2008）.

Therealeconomyandfinancenexus

Anumberofexplanationsforfinancialstructureexistintheliterature;

however,noneareabletoprovideacomprehensiveaccountoftheobservations.Thefirstexplanationisbasedonlegaloriginandinvestorprotection. 

Levine（1997） 

buildsontheworkof 

LaPortaetal.（1997, 

1998）;

henceforthLLSV）statingthatlegalsystemsoriginatefromalimitednumberoflegaltraditions: