美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf

美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf

《美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美赛一等奖论文_精品文档资料下载.pdf（19页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

Team#40476Page1of19ForofficeuseonlyT1_T2_T3_T4_TeamControlNumber40476ProblemChosenDForofficeuseonlyF1_F2_F3_F4_Isitsustainable?

@#@Isitsustainable?

@#@AbAbstractstractThispaperaimstoanalyzetheproblemsofsustainabledevelopmentanddevelopamodalofsustainability.AsforTask1,wefirstlychoose8relevantfactorsconcerningthesustainability.Inordertomakethesefactorsquantified,weselect8representativedatatorepresentthefactors.Then,weworkouttheweightwofthese8factorsbasedonAPHtheory.Afterthat,weapplythemethodofClusteringAnalysistodividethe8statisticsof20countriesintothreeperiods.Meanwhile,wemustsetastandardforsustainablecountry,whichwecallitSustainabilityIndex（SI）.Finally,werandomlychoose10countriesdatatoexamineourmodal.InordertosolveTask2,weselectDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoastheresearchobject.BasingontheModalofSI,thepresentSIofCongois0.84,whichmeansitsintheunsustainableperiod.Then,wedoathoroughresearchonCongoandfindoutthattheproblemsTherefore,wemakeupa20-year-planforCongobasedonourresearchandmodalinTask1tohelpitimproveitsustainability.AimingattheTask3,wefindoutthe8relevantstatisticsofCongossustainabledevelopment（2003-2012）.Then,basedonthemethodofReducingDimensionsandFactorAnalysis,weuseSPSStodotheanalysisoflinearregressionontheconnectionsbetweentheeightrelevantstatisticsandthesustainability.Afterthat,wepredictthattheSIofCongoin2035shouldbe1.1,whichmeansitbasicallymovestowardsustainableperiod.Butittakesmuchlongerwithouttheplanwemake.Thesustainableplanscanimprovetheirsustainabilityinahigherspeed.Finally,wedeveloptheModelofGreyRelationtohelpICMfindtheoptimalpolicies.TheGreyRelationIndexesof8factorsare:

@#@（0.7776,0.7876,0.8681,0.8381,0.8631,0.7512,0.9604,0.9348）TR，Therefore,thepoliciesconcerningsocietystabilityandeconomymakethemaximumbenefits.Finally,weevaluatethemodelsinourpaper,anddiscussitstrengthsandweaknesses.KeyKeywordwordss:

@#@SustainabilityAHPClusteringAnalysisSustainabilityIndexGreyPredictionTeam#40476Page2of19IntroductionNowadays,everycountriestriesallmeanstoincreasetheirGDPwhileabusingnaturalresourcesandpayingnoattentiontoenvironmentprotecting,whichhaveacontinuouslybadinfluenceonnextgenerationsandfurtherdevelopment.Inordertochangetheseirrationaldevelopingpatternsandbenefitsournextgenerations.TheUNputforwardtheconceptionofSustainableDevelopmentin1987.Butherecomesaquestionthathowcanwemeasurewhetheracountrysdevelopmentpatternissustainableornot?

@#@Howcanthisdevelopmentpatternhelpthegovernmenttomakerationalpolicies?

@#@Meanwhile,weneedtopredicateeveryconsequenceafterputtingapolicyintopracticeandevaluatewhetherithelpsthiscountrymovetowardsamoresustainablefuture.Therefore,theproblemsneededtobesolvedinourmodelareclearthat:

@#@Developamodelforthesustainabilityofacountry.Thismodeloffersanassessmentmeasuretoevaluateeverycountryssustainability.AnditcanalsogivetheInternationalConglomerateofMoney（ICM）usefulinformationandsuggestionsfortheirinvestments.Makea20-yearplanofsustainabledevelopmentforaleastdevelopedcountry（LDC）basedonourmodalsandresearch.Useourmodalstoevaluatetheeffectsthe20-yearsustainabilityplanhasonacountryssustainabilityandchoosethemostbeneficialpoliciesorplans.Explainourmodalsandplansandanalyzeitsstrengthsandweaknesses.AssumptionsThedatawechooseinTask1canrepresentacountryssustainabilityandotherfactorsareneglected.Wars,governmentchanginganddevastatingnaturaldisasterswillnotoccurduringthe20years.The20countriesthatwechooseinTask1arerepresentativeenoughtoreflectthedevelopinglevelallovertheworld.Allthedatawefindarereliableandauthentic.SolutionTeam#40476Page3of1911.TheModalofSustainabilityIndexTheModalofSustainabilityIndex（SI）（SI）Wehave5stepstodevelopthismodel:

@#@StepStep11Choose4keyfactorswhicharemostrelatedtoacountryssustainability-Environment,Economy,PersonalHealthandSocietystability.StepStep22Dividethemintoeightrepresentativeaspects-life,foodsecurity,accesstocleanwater,localenvironmentalquality,energyefficiency,education,economy,societystability.Consideringthattheseeightaspectsareabstractandunclear,weintroduceeightmeasurablenationalstatisticstorepresentthemandquantifyeverycountryssustainability.Ithelpsusdevelopthemodelandmakethisproblemmeasurable.Step3Step3Whendefiningacountryssustainabledevelopmentlevel,weapplyAnalyticHierarchyProcess（AHP）andgiveeveryinfluentialfactoracertainweightbasedontheUNscalestandards.SSteptep44Select20representativecountries8