BBC新闻Word格式文档下载.docx

BBC新闻Word格式文档下载.docx

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BBC新闻@#@8.@#@Aninconvenienttruth@#@AWEEKafterFrancewasshakenbyterroristshootingsinandaroundToulouse,candidatesforthecountry’spresidentialelectionhavegonebacktothestump.Thetoneisalittlelessshrill,thecontendersrespectfulofthesombremood.Yetthereturntoelectioneeringhasasurrealqualitynonetheless,unlinkedtothenewconcernsaboutsecurity.Forthecountryfacesanimminenteconomicshock,whichthepresidentialcandidatesareutterlyfailingtoacknowledge.@#@TheawkwardtruthisthatFrance,thesecond-biggesteconomyintheeurozoneafterGermany,facesapublic-financesqueeze.Frenchpublicspendingnowaccountsfor56%ofGDP（seechart1）,comparedwithanOECDaverageof43.3%:

@#@highereventhaninSweden.ForyearsFrancehasoffereditspeopleaSwedish-stylesocialmodelofservices,benefitsandprotection,buthasfailedtocreateenoughwealthtopayforit.@#@TodayFrancecontinuestobehaveasifitenjoyedSweden’sorGermany’spublicfinances,whenintruththeyareclosertothoseofSpain.AlthoughFranceandGermanyhavecomparablepublic-debtlevels,atover80%ofGDP,Germany’sisnowinchingdownwardswhereasFrance’sisat90%andrising.OneratingagencyhasalreadystrippedFranceofitsAAAcreditratingoverworriesabouthighdebtandlowgrowth.Thecountry’sauditor,theCourdesComptes,chairedbyDidierMigaud,aformerSocialistdeputy,haswarnedthatunless“difficultdecisions”aretakenthisyearandnextonspending,publicdebtcouldreach100%by2015or2016.@#@Theunderlyingproblemisthat,overthepasttenyears,Francehaslostcompetitiveness.In2000hourlylabourcostsinFrancewere8%lowerthanthoseinGermany,itsmaintradingpartner;@#@today,theyare10%higher（seechart2）.FrenchexportshavestagnatedwhileGermany’shaveboomed.AnemployertodaypaystwiceasmuchinsocialchargesinFranceashedoesinGermany.France’sunemploymentrateis10%nextto5.8%inGermany—andhasnotdippedbelow7%fornearly30years.@#@ThiserosionofFrenchcompetitivenessraiseshardquestionsabouttheunderlyingsocialcompact.Frenchmencherishthenotionthateveryonehasanequalrighttodecentservicesingoodtimesandageneroussafetynetinbad.Butwhatsortoflevelofsupport,insickness,joblessness,infancyoroldage,canFrancereallyaffordtoofferitscitizens?

@#@Howcanthecountryjustifyitsmassivepublicadministration—amillefeuilleofcommunes,departments,regionsandthecentralstate—whichemploys90civilservantsper1,000population,comparedwith50inGermany?

@#@HowcanFrancelightenthetaxburden,includingpayrollsocialcharges,soastoencourageentrepreneurshipandjobcreation?

@#@@#@Putsimply,FranceisabouttofacethetoughchoicesthatGerhardSchrö@#@der,Germany’sformerchancellor,confrontedintheearly2000sorthatSwedendidinthemid-1990s,whenitsownunsustainablesocialsystemcollapsed.Theeuro-zonecrisis,whichhasmadebondmarketsunsparingofslackeconomicmanagement,meansthatthesedecisionshavebecomebothmoreurgentandmoredifficult.WhoeveriselectedatFrance’stwo-roundpresidentialelectiononApril22ndandMay6thwillfaceachoice.Ifhefailstobetoughenoughonthedeficit,marketswillreactbadly,andFrancecouldfinditselfatthecentreofaneweuro-zonefinancingcrisis.Ifhetacklesthedeficitwithtaxincreasesacrosstheboardandevenspendingcuts,voterswillnotberemotelypreparedforit.@#@“TherealriskfortheeurozonenowisnotGreece,butFrance,”saysatopFrenchfinanceboss.NicolasBaverez,acommentatorwhoforesawthecountry’sloomingdebtproblemsinabestsellingbookof2003,agrees:

@#@“I’mconvincedthatFrancewillbethecentreofthenextshockintheeurozone.”@#@Thecandidates,however,aremasterfullymanagingtoduckallthis.BeforetheToulouseshootingsintervened,thecampaignturnedaroundsuchpressingmattersashalalslaughterhouses,immigrationandtaxexiles.AlthoughbothNicolasSarkozy,theGaullistincumbent,andFranç@#@oisHollande,hisSocialistrival,haveembraceddeficitreduction,eachvowingtobringFrance’sbudgetdeficitdownto3%ofGDPnextyear,neitherispromisingtodosobymakingradicalspendingcuts.@#@Bothpresidentialfront-runnersinsteadrelyheavilyonbalancingthebooksthroughtaxincreases.MrSarkozyhasalreadyraisedcorporateandincometax.HenowsayshewantstotaxeventhosewholeaveFrancefortaxreasons.MrHollandepromisesa75%topincome-taxrateonthoseearningover€1m（$1.3m）ayear,whichmeanstheywouldpayover90%aftersocialcharges.Healsowantstoincreasetheannualwealthtax,leviedannuallyonassetsworthover€1.3m,andtaxdividendsmore.Hevowstoraisetheminimumwage,create60,000teachingjobs,lowertheminimumretirementageto60forthosewhobeganworkyoung,and“renegotiate”theEuropeanfiscalcompact