Uber动态溢价分析报告PPT文档格式.pptx

Uber动态溢价分析报告PPT文档格式.pptx

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SelectapickuplocationChoosetypeofcarUberX:

cheapsedanUberSUV:

cheapSUVorvanUberBlack:

fancysedanUberXL:

fancySUVUberPool:

carpoolwithsomerandosEtcRequestandrideawaySimpleandConvenient,ExceptMarketplacesTransparentSupplierssettheirownpricesCustomersmayobserveallproductsandtheirpricesOpaqueSupplyanddemandarehiddenfromcustomersSuppliersdonotchoosetheirownpricesPricesaresetbyanalgorithmGoalsDeterminehowthesurgepricingalgorithmworksDoesitworkthewayUberclaims?

Isitresponsivetochangesinsupplyanddemand?

Cansurgesbepredictedand/oravoided?

ImpactofsurgesondriversandpassengersDataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusionsDataCollectionUbersofficialsurgepricingpatentsaysthecalculationisbasedonsupply,demand,andotherfactorsHowcanwecollectthisdata?

1.UberAPIPros:

easytouse,includessurgemultipliersandEstimatedWaitTimes（EWT）Cons:

nocars,demand,orsupplyinformation2.UberRiderAppUberAppPingsUbersserversevery5seconds8nearestcarsEstimatedWaitTime（EWT）SurgemultiplierLimitationsMeasuringsupplyisstraightforwardSupply=observedcarsontheroadMeasuringdemandistrickyCarsmaygetbookedOrjustgoofflineOrdriveoutoftheareaWecanonlyestimatedemandFulfilleddemand=numberofcarsthatgoofflineUpperboundontruefulfilleddemandLimitedVisibilityRadiusr3pmonSundayRecall:

theUberapponlyseesthe8closestcarsLimitedVisibilityrr5pmonMondayHowfarapartshouldweplaceourmeasurementspoints?

RadiusMeasurementsCarsobservedbyallapps:

RadiusrRadiusMeasurementsValidationValidatedmethodologyusingground-truthdatafromNYCtaxisBuiltan“Ubersimulator”andusedourmethodstomeasurethetaxisObserved97%ofsupplyand95%ofdemandFinalDataCollectionCollectedfourmonthsofdatafromMidtownManhattanandSanFrancisco2monthsfromeachcity,43measurementpoints2ndand3rdlargestUbermarketsVerydifferentpublictransportoptionsRadiusexperiments247metersinMidtownManhattan387metersindowntownSanFranciscoExampleMeasurementGrid43measurementpointsCollected2monthsofdatainMidtownEthicsWedidnotcollectanypersonalinformationaboutUberdriversorpassengersWeneverbookedanyridesWedidnotinduceanysurgesWeplaced40“users”inrandomlocationswithnosurge,inthemiddleofthenightDidnotobservesurgesforonehourRepeated100timesatdifferentlocationsandhoursDataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusionsResearchQuestionsHowmuchandhowoftendoesitsurge?

Howlongdosurgeslast?

Howdosurgepricesvarybylocation?

WhatfeaturesdoesUberusetocalculatesurgeprices?

CollectedDataHowmuchdoesitsurge?

14%ofthetimeitissurginginManhattan57%ofthetimeinSFSurgemultiplierstendtobehigherinSFHowlongdosurgeslast?

Noisiness:

70%ofsurgeslast=10minutesStaircase:

surgeslastmultiplesof5minutesHowdoessurgevarybylocation?

MatchNoMatchMatchHowissurgecalculated?

ManypossiblevariablesSupply,demand,EWT,etc.Usecross-correlationtoperformtime-seriesanalysisTime12pm12:

0512:

1012:

1512:

2012:

2512:

30SurgeSupplyHighcorrelationat-10minutesCross-correlation（SupplyDemand）vs.SurgeEWTvs.SurgeModeratelystrongcorrelationswhentimedifferenceiszeroSuggestsUberusesdatafromthelast5minutewindowwhencalculatingsurgeZerocorrelationinothertimewindowsSurgepricingalgorithmisresponsivebutnoisyDataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusionsCanwepredictsurges?

UsefulvariablesSupply,demand,EWTPrevioussurgemultiplier（s）PredictivemodelsLinearandnon-linearregressionsPerformanceR2rangesfrom0.370.57Theseresultsareterrible,i.e.wecannotreliablypredictsurgesMissingsomekeyvariable（s）Unfulfilleddemand:

howmanypeopletriedtobookaridebutcouldnt?

AvoidingSurgesNoSurge!

EWT=6minNoSurge!

EWT=3min5min7minAvoidingSurges10-15%chanceyoullsavemoneySavingsupto50%byavoidingsurgesDataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusionsImpactonSupplyandDemandWhydidUberimplementsurgepricing?

ToequalizesupplyanddemandReducedemandbyraisingpricesIncreasesupplybyincentivizingdriversIneconomicterms,surgepricingisaboutincentivesAretheincentivesprovidedbythesurgepricingsystemworking?

StateTransitionsIfoneareaissurging,weexpectthefollowingfivethingstohappen1.（Supply）New:

carsshouldprefertocomeonlineinthesurgingarea2.（Supply）Move-in:

carsshoulddriveintothesurgingarea3.（Supply）Move-out:

fewcarsshoulddriveoutofthesurgingarea4.（Demand）Booked:

fewercarsshouldgetbookedinthesurgingarea5.（Demand）Old:

morecarsthatbeg