Federal Resered 教授精彩讲解美联储.docx

Federal Resered 教授精彩讲解美联储.docx

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FederalResered教授精彩讲解美联储

Welcomebacktomoduletwoofyieldcurveanalysis.MynameisBillAddissandwe'regonnacontinuewithourdiscussionnowfocusingontheFederalReserveandtheimpacttheFedhasontheshortendofthemarket.Butbeforewetalkaboutinterestratesand,andtheimpactofthemarket,IthinkwehavetohaveabetterunderstandingoftheFed.

Nowourcentralbank,theFedasweknowittoday,isactuallythethirdcentralbankinthehistoryoftheUS,andthismostrecenteffortwasestablishedin1910.Itgoesbackthatfar.Iwouldalsopointout,althoughmostpeoplehereintheUSarenotawareofit,theFedisacorporation.

ThereareshareholdersintheFed.TheFedisanexampleofwhatwecallhereintheUSanSRO,aselfregulatingorganization.ThereareshareholdersintheFedandthoseshareholdersarethecommercialbanks.Paradoxically,andsomemightsayinthiscertainconflict,theFedisalsotheregulatoroveritsowners.

ThebanksowntheFed,theFedregulatesthebanks.ThisisanexampleofanSRO,aselfregulatingorganization.NowwhentheFedwasfirstcreated,asitstillistoday,oneofthecommonmisconceptionsisthatwedon'thaveoneFederalReserveBank.Thereare12separateFederalReserveBankshereintheUS.

There'saFederalReserveBankofNewYork.AFederalReserveBankofBoston,Dallas,Atlanta,Richmond,KansasCity,Chicago,SanFrancisco,L.A..Thereare12separateFederalReserveBanks.AndeachFederalReserveBankwaschargedwiththreemandateswhentheywerecreated.Numberone,supervision,aswesaid.

Theysupervisethebanksheadquarteredintheirarea.SoCitibankisFed,issupervisedbyFedNewYork.BankAmericaissupervisedbyFedAtlanta,cuzthat'swheretheirheadquartersare.SosupervisionwasoneofthepreeminentresponsibilitiesoftheFed.AnotherresponsibilityoftheFedisliterallykeepingcoinageincirculation,keepingmoneyinsupply.

AsI'mfondoffa,saying,the,hereintheUS,theprintingpressesarenotownedbythegovernment.TheprintingpressesareownedbytheFed.AndthatisanimportantdistinctionIthinkIneedtomakerightupfront.Youknow,theFedisnotapartofthegovernment.

Itisaseparateinstitution.So,whentheFed,the12Fedsresponsibleforsupervisingthebanksintheirarea.They'reresponsibleforkeepingcoinageincirculation.Nowmorerecently,Congresswhichwasinthe1980suncomfortablewiththisautonomousnatureoftheFed.Congressdidpassinthelate1980stheHumphreyHawkinsAct,andtheHumphreyHawkinsdidgivetheFedtwootherresponsibilities.

Responsibilitynumberonewasforkeepinginflationundercontrol.ResponsibilitynumbertwoisholdingtheFedaccountableforunemployment.AnditiswiththesetwomandatesthatthechairmanoftheFednowhastotestifytwiceayearinfrontofCongress.So,JanetYellenrecentlyconcludedthattestimonyinSeptemberandAugustofthisyear,andshewillberequiredtoappearbi-annuallyasaresultofthatlegislation.

Now,whenwe'reworriedabouttheFedrelativetothebondmarket,we'renotconcernedwiththeFed.I'mmean,thishasnothingtodowithinterestrates.WhenwetalkabouttheFedrelativetointerestratesinthebondmarket,we'reactuallytalkingaboutacommitteeoftheFedcalledtheFederalOpenMarketCommittee.

Thisiswherethepowerisrelativetothebondmarket,andthisiswherethepowerisrelativetomonetarypolicyhereintheUS.Now,withinthe12Fedsthatwehave,eachFedelectsaFedpresident.SowehaveFed,12FederalReservepresidents.Onarotatingbasis,fiveofthoseregionalpresidentsareputonthiscommittee.

NowtheNewYorkFedPresidentisalwaysonthiscommitteeonanon-rotatingbasis.So,thereasonforthat,quitefrankly,iswhentheFedwantstointercedeinthemarket,whentheFedcomesintobuyorselltreasuriesastheydosometimesonadailybasis,theFedhasonetradingdesk.

ThatdeskisinNewYork.SotheNewYorkFedPresidentisalwaysonthiscommittee.Sofiveofthe12regionalpresidentsareonthiscommittee.ThentherearesevenmemberscalledtheBoardofGovernors.NowtheBoardofGovernorsarepoliticalappointees.AsaBoardofGovernormember,youareappointedbythePresident,confirmedbyCongress.

AndasaBoardofGovernormember,youwillservea14yearterm.Andtheideahereis,quitefrankly,thatnoonepresidentisnecessarilygoingtostackthedeck.So,onarotatingbasis,they'reserving14yeartermsasBoardofGovernormembers.Ontopofthat,thePresidentalsoappointsthechairmanofthiscommittee.

Aswementioned,JanetYellenispresentlythechairmanoftheFOMC.Beforeher,itwasobviouslyChairmanBernankeandGreenspanbeforethat.Nowaschairman,youserveafouryearterm.SoJanetYellenwasappointedtoafouryeartenureasaBoardofGovernormember.Shewillalsoserve,ifshechooses,servesitout,fouryearsasChairmanoftheCommittee,andshecouldbereappointed.

Soforexample,underhistenure,BernankeservedthreetermsasChairman,12years.Hetechnically,afterhavingleftthechairmanship,couldhavestayedonanothertwoyearsasaBoardofGovernormember.ButlikemostBoardofGovernor,pastchairmans,hefelt,ifI'mnotgoingtobechairman,whybeonthecommittee?

Sothese13people,allright,makeuptheFederalOpenMarketCommittee.Theydecide,forexample,wheretoputtheFedfundsrighthereintheUS.Inthefirstmodule,wetalkedabouthowtheFedkindofcontrolsandownstheshortendofthemarket.ThatthatdecisiontobringtheFedfundsratefromfiveandaquarterwhereitwasbackin'07allthewaydowntozero,wasadecisionofthese13members.

Theintroductionofquantitativeeasing,roundsone,two,andthree,wasvotedonbythesemembers.Theymadethedecisiontoturnontheprintingpressesandstartbuyingtreasuries.AndIwouldmakeyoutheargumentthatthatmakesthese13peoplesomeofthemostpowerfulpeopleintheworld.

NowIalsohavetodiscussbrieflytheroleofthechairman,becausealthoughthechairmanisonlyoneof13votes,therealityisaschairmanyoudo,do,do,determineafairamountofthepersonalityoftheCommittee.Forexample,inthetimethathewasoperatingaschairman,PaulVolcker,hadacompletelydifferentphilosophythanBernankeafterhim.

Volcker'sphilosophywasweareinter-mediatinginthemarket,weshouldn'ttellthemarketwhatitiswe'redoing.AndwhenVolckerwastheheadoftheFOMC,theCommitteewouldmakeadecisionthatwouldaffectmonetarypolicy.TheCommitteewoulddisbandandwewouldn'tevenknowwhattheCommitteehaddecided.

ItwouldsometimestakeusdaysifnotweekstofigureoutwhatitwastheFedhaddone.NowwhenGreenspanandBernankecameinaschairmans,theyhadaverydifferentphilosophy.TheirphilosophywasoneofmuchmoreanopenFed.Anditwasundertheirreignsthat,forexample,thatwhenthiscommitteemeets,theynowevenholdapressconferenceinwhichtheytelluswhatthey'vedecided.

They'retheretoanswerquestions.Thirtydaysafterthecommitteevotesweevengettheminutesofthemeetingsothatwecanseewhattheconversationwas,whattheposturewasofthedifferentmembers.Youknow,it'sundertheFedthatmostofushas,havegrownupwith,it'safairlytransparentFed.

ButIdostress,theyareundernoresponsibilitytodoanyofthat.Theintroductionofthepressconference,thepressannouncementitself,thereleasingoftheminutes.AllofthathasbeenaddedonlyunderthelastcoupleoftenuresofvariousFedChairmans,andthere'snothingthatsaysithastobedonethatway.

Sotoday,wereallydohave,continuingJanetYellen,continuingthetraditionofherimmediatepredecessors,wereallydohaveaverytransparentFedasweoperatetoday.

Welcomebacktomoduletwoofyieldcurveanalysis.MynameisBillAddissandwe'regonnacontinuewithourdiscussionnowfocusingontheFederalReserveandtheimpacttheFedhasontheshortendofthemarket.Butbeforewetalkaboutinterestratesand,andtheimpactofthemarket,IthinkwehavetohaveabetterunderstandingoftheFed.

Nowourcentralbank,theFedasweknowittoday,isactuallythethirdcentralbankinthehistoryoftheUS,andthismostrecenteffortwasestablishedin1910.Itgoesbackthatfar.Iwouldalsopointout,althoughmostpeoplehereintheUSarenotawareofit,theFedisacorporation.

ThereareshareholdersintheFed.TheFedisanexampleofwhatwecallhereintheUSanSRO,aselfregulatingorganization.ThereareshareholdersintheFedandthoseshareholdersarethecommercialbanks.Paradoxically,andsomemightsayinthiscertainconflict,theFedisalsotheregulatoroveritsowners.

ThebanksowntheFed,theFedregulatesthebanks.ThisisanexampleofanSRO,aselfregulatingorganization.NowwhentheFedwasfirstcreated,asitstillistoday,oneofthecommonmisconceptionsisthatwedon'thaveoneFederalReserveBank.Thereare12separateFederalReserveBankshereintheUS.

There'saFederalReserveBankofNewYork.AFederalReserveBankofBoston,Dallas,Atlanta,Richmond,KansasCity,Chicago,SanFrancisco,L.A..Thereare12separateFederalReserveBanks.AndeachFederalReserveBankwaschargedwiththreemandateswhentheywerecreated.Numberone,supervision,aswesaid.

Theysupervisethebanksheadquarteredintheirarea.SoCitibankisFed,issupervisedbyFedNewYork.BankAmericaissupervisedbyFedAtlanta,cuzthat'swheretheirheadquartersare.SosupervisionwasoneofthepreeminentresponsibilitiesoftheFed.AnotherresponsibilityoftheFedisliterallykeepingcoinageincirculation,keepingmoneyinsupply.

AsI'mfondoffa