TED演讲李世默两种制度的传说.docx

TED演讲李世默两种制度的传说.docx

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TED演讲李世默两种制度的传说

TED演讲——李世默：

两种制度的传说

Goodmorning.MynameisEricLi,andIwasbornhere.

ButNo.Iwasntbornthere.

ThiswaswhereIwasborn:

Shanghai@theheightofthecultral revolution.

Mygrandmothertellsmethatsheheardthesoundofgunfirealongwithmy1stcries.

WhenIwasgrowingup,IwastoldastorythatexplainedallIeverneededtoknowabthumanity.

Itwentlikethis.

Allhumansocietiesdevelopinlinearprogression,beginningwithprimitivesociety,thenslavesociety,feudalism,capitalism,socialism,andfinnaly,guesswhereweendup?

Communism！

Sooner/Later,allofhumanity,regardlessofculture,language,nationality,willarrive@thisfinalstageofpolitical&socialdevelopment.

Theentireworldspeoplewillbeunifiedinthisparadiseonearth&livehappilyeverafter.

Butbeforewegetthere,werengagedinastrugglebetweengoodandevil,thegoodofsocialismagainsttheevilofcapitalism,andthegoodshalltriumph.

Thatofcourse,wasthemeta-narrativedistilledfromthetheoriesofKarlMarx.

Andthechineseboughtit.

Weweretaughtthatgrandstorydayin&dayout.Itbecamepartofus,andwebelievedinit.

Thestorywasabestseller.

Abt1/3of theentireworldspopulationlivedunderthatmetanarrative.

Thentheworldchangedovernight.

Asforme,disillusionedbythefailedreligionofmyyouth,IwenttoAmericaandbecameaBerkeleyHippie.

Now,AsIwascomingofage,sthelsehappened.

Asifonebigstorywasntenough,Iwastoldanotherone.

Thisonewasjustasgrand.

Italseclaimsthatallhumansocietiesdevelopinalinearprogressiontowardsasingularend.

Thisonewentasfollows,

Allsocietiesregardlessofculture,beitChristian,Muslim,Confucian,mustprogressfromtraditionalsocietiesinwhichgroupsarethebasicunitstomodernsocietiesinwhichatomizedindividualsaretheSovereignUnits,andalltheseindividuals,bydefinition,rational,andthetallwantonething,TheVote.

Becausetheyareallrational,oncegiventhevote,theyproducegoodgovernment,andlivehappilyeverafer.

Paradiseonearth,again.

Sooner/Later,electoraldemocracywillbetheonlypoliticalsystemforallcountriesandallpeoples,withafreemarkettomakethemallrich.

Butbeforewegetthere,werengagedinastrugglebetweengoodandevil.

Thegoodbelongstothosewhoaredemocraciesandarechargedwithamissionofspreadingitaroundtheglobe,sometimesbyforce,againsttheevilofthosewhodonotholdelections.

老布什：

Anewworldorder..

小布什：

endingtyrannyof ourworld...

奥巴马：

Asinglestandardforall...Whowouldholdpower.

Now..

Thisstoryalsebecameabestseller.

Accordingtothefreedomhouse,theNo.ofdemocracieswentfrom45in1975to115in2010.

Inthelast20yrs,westernelitestirelesslytrottedaroundtheglobesellingthisprospectus:

Multiplepartiesfightforpoliticalpowerandeveryonevotingonthem,istheonlypathtosalvationtothelong-sufferingdevelopingworld.

Thosewhobuytheprospectusaredestinedforsuccess,thosewhodonotaredoomedtofail.

Butthistime,thechinesedidntbuyit.

Foolmenoce...................

Therestishistory.

Injust30yrs,Chinawentfromoneofthepoorestagricultralcountriesintheworldtoits2ndlargesteconomy.

6hundred50millionpeoplewereliftedoutofpoverty,80%oftheentireworldspovertyalleviationduringthatperiodhappenedinChina.

Inotherwords,Allthenewandolddemocraciesputtogetheramountedtoamerefractionofwhatasingle,one-partystatedidwithoutvoting.

See,Igrewupwiththesestuff:

foodstamps.

 Meatwasrationedtoafewhundredgrams/person/month@1point.

Needlesstosay,Iateallmygrandmother'sportion.

So,Iaskedmyself, what'swrongwiththispic?

HereIam,inmyhometown,mybusinessgrowsleapsandbounds,entrepreneursarestartingcompanieseveryday,middleclassisexpandinginspeednscaleunprecedentedinhumanhistory.

Yet,accordingtothegrandsotry,noneofthisshouldbehappening.

SoIwentndidtheonlythingIcould.Istudiedit.

Yes,Chinais a1partystate,runnedbytheChineseCommunistParty,THEParty.

Andtheydon'tholdelections.

3assumptionsaremadebythedominantpoliticaltheoriesofourtime.Suchasystemisoperationallyrigid,politicallyclosed,andmorallyillegitimate.

Well,theasumptionsarewrong.Theoppositesaretrue.

Adaptability,MeritocracyandLigitamacyarethe3definingcharacteristicsofChina's1partysystem.

Nowmostpoliticalscientistswilltellusthata1partysystemisinherentlyincapableseld-correction.

Itwon'tlastlongbecauseitcannotadapt.

Nowherearethefacts.

In64yrsofrunningthelargestcountryintheworld,therangeoftheparty'spolicieshasbeenwiderthananyothercountriesinrecentmemory.

FromradicallandcollectivisationtotheGreatLeapForward,thenprivatisationoffarmland,thentheCulturalRevolution,thenDXP'sMarketReform,Deng'ssuccessorJZMtookthegiantpoliticalstepof openinguppartymembershiptoprivatebusinesspeople, sthunimaginableduringMao'srule.

Sothepartyself-correctsinratherdramaticfashions.

Institutionally,newrulesgetenactedtocorrectpreviousdysfunctions.

Forexample,termlimits,politicalleadersusedtoretaintheirpositionsforlife,andtheyusedthattoaccumulatepowerandperpetuatetheirrules.

MaowasthefatherofmodernChina,yethisprolongedruleledtodisatrousmistakes.

Sothepartyinstitutedtermlimitswithmandatoryretirementageof68to70.

OnethingweoftenhearispoliticalreformshavelaggedfarbehindeconomicreformsandChinaisinDIREneedofpoliticalreform.

Butthisclaimisarhetoricaltraphiddenbehindapoliticalbias.

See,somehavedecidedaprioriwhatkindsofchangestheywannasee,andonlysuchchangescanbecalledpoliticalreform.

Butthetruthis,politicalreformhaveneverstopped.

Comparedwith30yrsago,20yrs,even10yrsago,everyaspectofChinesesociety,howthecountryisgoverned,fromthe mostlocallevel,tothehighestcenter,areunrecognisabletoday.

Nowsuchchangesaresimplynotpossiblewithoutpoliticalreformsofthemostfundamentalkind.

NowIwouldventuretosuggestthePARTYistheworld'sleadingexpertinpoliticalreform.

The2ndassumptionisthatina1partystate,powergetsconcentratedinthehandsofthefew,andbadgovernancencorruptionfollow.

Indeed,corruptionisabigproblem,butlet's1stlook@thelargercontext.

Nowthismaybecounterintuitivetoyou.

ThePARTYhappenstobetheoneofthemostmeritocraticpoliticalinstitutionsintheworldtoday.

China'shighestrulingbody,thePolitburo,has25members.

Inthemostrecentone,only 5ofthemcamefromabackgroundofprivilege,so-calledPrincelings.

Theother20,includingthePresidentnthePremier,camefromentirelyordinarybackgrounds.

Inthelargercentralcommitteeof300ormore,the%ofthosewhowerebornintopower&wealthwasevensmaller.

ThevastmajorityofseniorChineseleadersworkedncompetedtheirwaytothetop.

Comparethatwiththerulingelites, inbothdevelopedndevelopingcountries,Ithinkyou'llfindthePARTYbeingnearthetopinupwardmobility.

TheQthenis,howcouldthatbepossibleinasys.runnedby1party?

Nowwecometoapowerfulpoliticalinstitution,little-knowntoWesterners:

ThePARTY'sOrganisationDept.

TheDept.functionslikea gianthumanresourceenginethathwouldbetheenvyofevensomeofthemostsuccessfulcorporations.

Itoperatesarotatingpyramidmadeupof3components,Civilservice,state-ownedenterprises,andsocialorg.slikeauniversityorcommunityprogram.

TheyformseparateyetintegratedcareerpathsforChineseofficials.

Theyrecruitcollegegradsintoentry-levelpositionsinall3tracks,andtheystartfromthebottom,called科员.

Thentheycouldgetpromotedthrough4increasinglyeliteranks:

副科、科、副处、处.

Nowthesearenotmovesfromkaratekids,OK?

SeriousBusiness.

Therangeofpositionsiswide,fromrunninghealthcareinavillage,toforeigninvestmentinacitydistrict,tomanagerinacompany.

Onceayr,thedept.reviewstheirperformance.Theyinterviewtheirsuperiors,theirpeers,theirsubordinates.

Theyvettheirpersonalconduct.Theyconductpublicopinionsurveys.

Thentheypromotethewinners.

Throughouttheircareers,thesecadrescanmovethroughandoutofallthreetracks.

Overtime,thegoodonesmovebeyondthe4baselevelstothe副局and局levels.

There,theyenterhighofficialdom.

Bythattime,atypicalassignmentwillbetomanageadistrictwithpopulationinthemillions,oracompanywithhundredsofmillionsofdollarsinrevenue.

Justtoshowyouhowcompetitivethesystemis,in2012,therewere900,000副科and 科levels,600,000副处and 处levels,andonly40,000副局and局levels.

Afterthe局level,thebestfewmovefurtherupseveralmoreranks,andeventually,makeittothecentralcommittee.

Theprocesstake2-3decades.

Doespatronageplayarole?

YesOfCourse.

Butmeritremainsthefundamentaldriver.

Inessence,theOrganisationDept.runsamodernisedversionofChina'scenturies-oldmandarinsystem.

China'snewpresident,XJP,issonofaformerleader,whichisveryunusual,1stofhiskindtomakethetopjob.

Evenforhim,thecareertook30yrs.

Hestartedasavillagemanager,andbythetimeheenteredthePolitburo,hehadmanagedareaswithtotalpopulationof150millionpeople,andcombinedGDPsof1.5trillionUSdollars.

Now,Plsdon'tgetmewrong,OK?

Thisisnotaputdownofanyone.Itisjustastatement offact.

GeorgeW.Bush,rememberhim?

Thisisnotaputdown!

BeforebecomingGovernorofTexas,orB