TED演讲李世默两种制度的传说.docx

1、TED演讲李世默两种制度的传说TED演讲李世默：两种制度的传说Good morning. My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.But No.I wasnt born there.This was where I was born:Shanghai the height of the cultralrevolution.My grandmother tells me that she heard the sound of gunfire along with my 1st cries.When I was growing up, I was told

2、a story that explained all I ever needed to know abt humanity.It went like this.All human societies develop in linear progression, beginning with primitive society, then slave society, feudalism, capitalism, socialism, and finnaly, guess where we end up? Communism！Sooner/ Later, all of humanity, reg

3、ardless of culture, language, nationality, will arrive this final stage of political & social development.The entire worlds people will be unified in this paradise on earth & live happily ever after.But before we get there, we r engaged in a struggle between good and evil, the good of socialism agai

4、nst the evil of capitalism, and the good shall triumph.That of course, was the meta-narrative distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.And the chinese bought it.We were taught that grand story day in & day out. It became part of us, and we believed in it.The story was a bestseller.Abt 1/3 ofthe enti

5、re worlds population lived under that meta narrative.Then the world changed overnight.As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth, I went to America and became a Berkeley Hippie.Now, As I was coming of age, sth else happened.As if one big story wasnt enough, I was told another one.Th

6、is one was just as grand.It alse claims that all human societies develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.This one went as follows,All societies regardless of culture, be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian, must progress from traditional societies in which groups are the basic units to mo

7、dern societies in which atomized individuals are the Sovereign Units, and all these individuals, by definition, rational, and thet all want one thing, The Vote.Because they are all rational, once given the vote, they produce good government, and live happily ever afer.Paradise on earth, again.Sooner

8、/ Later, electoral democracy will be the only political system for all countries and all peoples, with a free market to make them all rich.But before we get there, we r engaged in a struggle between good and evil.The good belongs to those who are democracies and are charged with a mission of spreadi

9、ng it around the globe, sometimes by force, against the evil of those who do not hold elections.老布什：A new world order.小布什：ending tyranny ofour world.奥巴马：A single standard for all.Who would hold power.Now.This story alse became a bestseller.According to the freedom house, the No. of democracies went

10、from 45 in 1975 to 115 in 2010.In the last 20 yrs, western elites tirelessly trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:Multiple parties fight for political power and every one voting on them, is the only path to salvation to the long-suffering developing world.Those who buy the prospectus are

11、 destined for success, those who do not are doomed to fail.But this time, the chinesedidnt buy it.Fool me noce.The rest is history.In just 30 yrs, China went from one of the poorest agricultral countries in the world to its 2nd largest economy.6 hundred 50 million people were lifted out of poverty,

12、80% of the entire worlds poverty alleviation during that period happened in China.In other words, All the new and old democracies put together amounted to a mere fraction of what a single, one-party state did without voting.See, I grew up with these stuff: food stamps.Meat was rationed to a few hund

13、red grams / person / month 1 point.Needless to say, I ate all my grandmothers portion.So, I asked myself, whats wrong with this pic?Here I am, in my hometown, my business grows leaps and bounds, entrepreneurs are starting companies every day, middle class is expanding in speed n scale unprecedented

14、in human history.Yet, according to the grand sotry, none of this should be happening.So I went n did the only thing I could. I studied it.Yes, China isa 1 party state, runned by the Chinese Communist Party, THE Party.And they dont hold elections.3 assumptions are made by the dominant political theor

15、ies of our time. Such a system is operationally rigid, politically closed, and morally illegitimate.Well, the asumptions are wrong. The opposites are true.Adaptability, Meritocracy and Ligitamacy are the 3 defining characteristics of Chinas 1 party system.Now most political scientists will tell us t

16、hat a 1 party system is inherently incapable seld-correction.It wont last long because it cannot adapt.Now here are the facts.In 64 yrs of running the largest country in the world, the range of the partys policies has been wider than any other countries in recent memory.From radical land collectivis

17、ation to the Great Leap Forward, then privatisation of farmland, then the Cultural Revolution, then DXPs Market Reform, Dengs successor JZM took the giant political step ofopening up party membership to private business people, sth unimaginable during Maos rule.So the party self-corrects in rather d

18、ramatic fashions.Institutionally, new rules get enacted to correct previous dysfunctions.For example, term limits, political leaders used to retain their positions for life, and they used that to accumulate power and perpetuate their rules.Mao was the father of modern China, yet his prolonged rule l

19、ed to disatrous mistakes.So the party instituted term limits with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.One thing we often hear is political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms and China is in DIRE need of political reform.But this claim is a rhetorical trap hidden behind a political bias

20、.See, some have decided a priori what kinds of changes they wanna see, and only such changes can be called political reform.But the truth is, political reform have never stopped.Compared with 30 yrs ago, 20 yrs, even 10 yrs ago, every aspect of Chinese society, how the country is governed, from them

21、ost local level, to the highest center, are unrecognisable today.Now such changes are simply not possible without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.Now I would venture to suggest the PARTY is the worlds leading expert in political reform.The 2nd assumption is that in a 1 party state, po

22、wer gets concentrated in the hands of the few, and bad governance n corruption follow.Indeed, corruption is a big problem, but lets 1st look the larger context.Now this maybe counterintuitive to you.The PARTY happens to be the one of the most meritocratic political institutions in the world today.Ch

23、inas highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.In the most recent one, only5 of them came from a background of privilege, so-called Princelings.The other 20, including the President n the Premier, came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.In the larger central committee of 300 or more, the %

24、of those who were born into power & wealth was even smaller.The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders worked n competed their way to the top.Compare that with the ruling elites,in both developed n developing countries, I think youll find the PARTY being near the top in upward mobility.The Q then i

25、s, how could that be possible in a sys. runned by 1 party?Now we come to a powerful political institution, little-known to Westerners: The PARTYs Organisation Dept.The Dept. functions like agiant human resource engine thath would be the envy of even some of the most successful corporations.It operat

26、es a rotating pyramid made up of 3 components, Civil service, state-owned enterprises, and social org.s like a university or community program.They form separate yet integrated career paths for Chinese officials.They recruit college grads into entry-level positions in all 3 tracks, and they start fr

27、om the bottom, called 科员.Then they could get promoted through 4 increasingly elite ranks: 副科、科、副处、处.Now these are not moves from karate kids, OK? Serious Business.The range of positions is wide, from running healthcare in a village, to foreign investment in a city district, to manager in a company.O

28、nce a yr, the dept. reviews their performance. They interview their superiors, their peers, their subordinates.They vet their personal conduct. They conduct public opinion surveys.Then they promote the winners.Throughout their careers, these cadres can move through and out of all three tracks.Overti

29、me, the good ones move beyond the 4 base levels to the 副局 and 局 levels.There, they enter high officialdom.By that time, a typical assignment will be to manage a district with population in the millions, or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.Just to show you how competitive the

30、 system is, in 2012, there were 900,000 副科 and科 levels, 600,000 副处 and 处 levels, and only 40,000 副局 and 局 levels.After the 局 level, the best few move further up several more ranks, and eventually, make it to the central committee.The process take 2-3 decades.Does patronage play a role? Yes Of Course

31、.But merit remains the fundamental driver.In essence, the Organisation Dept. runs a modernised version of Chinas centuries-old mandarin system.Chinas new president, XJP, is son of a former leader, which is very unusual, 1st of his kind to make the top job.Even for him, the career took 30 yrs.He star

32、ted as a village manager, and by the time he entered the Politburo, he had managed areas with total population of 150 million people, and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion US dollars.Now, Pls dont get me wrong, OK?This is not a putdown of anyone. It is just a statementof fact.George W. Bush, remember him?This is not a putdown!Before becoming Governor of Texas, or B