porter波特五力模型详解.docx

porter波特五力模型详解.docx

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porter波特五力模型详解

Porter'sFiveForces

AMODELFORINDUSTRYANALYSIS

Themodelofpurecompetitionimpliesthatrisk-adjustedratesofreturnshouldbeconstantacrossfirmsandindustries.However,numerouseconomicstudieshaveaffirmedthatdifferentindustriescansustaindifferentlevelsofprofitability;partofthisdifferenceisexplainedbyindustrystructure.

MichaelPorterprovidedaframeworkthatmodelsanindustryasbeinginfluencedbyfiveforces.Thestrategicbusinessmanagerseekingtodevelopanedgeoverrivalfirmscanusethismodeltobetterunderstandtheindustrycontextinwhichthefirmoperates.

DiagramofPorter's5Forces

SUPPLIERPOWER

Supplierconcentration

Importanceofvolumetosupplier

Differentiationofinputs

Impactofinputsoncostordifferentiation

Switchingcostsoffirmsintheindustry

Presenceofsubstituteinputs

Threatofforwardintegration

Costrelativetototalpurchasesinindustry

BARRIERS

TOENTRY

Absolutecostadvantages

Proprietarylearningcurve

Accesstoinputs

Governmentpolicy

Economiesofscale

Capitalrequirements

Brandidentity

Switchingcosts

Accesstodistribution

Expectedretaliation

Proprietaryproducts

THREATOF

SUBSTITUTES

-Switchingcosts

-Buyerinclinationto

 substitute

-Price-performance

 trade-offofsubstitutes

BUYERPOWER

Bargainingleverage

Buyervolume

Buyerinformation

Brandidentity

Pricesensitivity

Threatofbackwardintegration

Productdifferentiation

Buyerconcentrationvs.industry

Substitutesavailable

Buyers'incentives

DEGREEOFRIVALRY

-Exitbarriers

-Industryconcentration

-Fixedcosts/Valueadded

-Industrygrowth

-Intermittentovercapacity

-Productdifferences

-Switchingcosts

-Brandidentity

-Diversityofrivals

-Corporatestakes

 I. Rivalry

Inthetraditionaleconomicmodel,competitionamongrivalfirmsdrivesprofitstozero.Butcompetitionisnotperfectandfirmsarenotunsophisticatedpassivepricetakers.Rather,firmsstriveforacompetitiveadvantageovertheirrivals.Theintensityofrivalryamongfirmsvariesacrossindustries,andstrategicanalystsareinterestedinthesedifferences.

Economistsmeasurerivalrybyindicatorsof industryconcentration.TheConcentrationRatio（CR）isonesuchmeasure.TheBureauofCensusperiodicallyreportstheCRformajorStandardIndustrialClassifications（SIC's）.TheCRindicatesthepercentofmarketshareheldbythefourlargestfirms（CR'sforthelargest8,25,and50firmsinanindustryalsoareavailable）.Ahighconcentrationratioindicatesthatahighconcentrationofmarketshareisheldbythelargestfirms-theindustryisconcentrated.Withonlyafewfirmsholdingalargemarketshare,thecompetitivelandscapeislesscompetitive（closertoamonopoly）.Alowconcentrationratioindicatesthattheindustryischaracterizedbymanyrivals,noneofwhichhasasignificantmarketshare.Thesefragmentedmarketsaresaidtobecompetitive.Theconcentrationratioisnottheonlyavailablemeasure;thetrendistodefineindustriesintermsthatconveymoreinformationthandistributionofmarketshare.

Ifrivalryamongfirmsinanindustryislow,theindustryisconsideredtobedisciplined.Thisdisciplinemayresultfromtheindustry'shistoryofcompetition,theroleofaleadingfirm,orinformalcompliancewithagenerallyunderstoodcodeofconduct.Explicitcollusiongenerallyisillegalandnotanoption;inlow-rivalryindustriescompetitivemovesmustbeconstrainedinformally.However,amaverickfirmseekingacompetitiveadvantagecandisplacetheotherwisedisciplinedmarket.

Whenarivalactsinawaythatelicitsacounter-responsebyotherfirms,rivalryintensifies.Theintensityofrivalrycommonlyisreferredtoasbeingcutthroat,intense,moderate,orweak,basedonthefirms'aggressivenessinattemptingtogainanadvantage.

Inpursuinganadvantageoveritsrivals,afirmcanchoosefromseveralcompetitivemoves:

∙Changingprices-raisingorloweringpricestogainatemporaryadvantage.

∙Improvingproductdifferentiation-improvingfeatures,implementinginnovationsinthemanufacturingprocessandintheproductitself.

∙Creativelyusingchannelsofdistribution-usingverticalintegrationorusingadistributionchannelthatisnoveltotheindustry.Forexample,withhigh-endjewelrystoresreluctanttocarryitswatches,Timexmovedintodrugstoresandothernon-traditionaloutletsandcorneredthelowtomid-pricewatchmarket.

∙Exploitingrelationshipswithsuppliers-forexample,fromthe1950'stothe1970'sSears,RoebuckandCo.dominatedtheretailhouseholdappliancemarket.Searssethighqualitystandardsandrequiredsupplierstomeetitsdemandsforproductspecificationsandprice.

Theintensityofrivalryisinfluencedbythefollowingindustrycharacteristics:

1.Alargernumberoffirmsincreasesrivalrybecausemorefirmsmustcompeteforthesamecustomersandresources.Therivalryintensifiesifthefirmshavesimilarmarketshare,leadingtoastruggleformarketleadership.

2.Slowmarketgrowthcausesfirmstofightformarketshare.Inagrowingmarket,firmsareabletoimproverevenuessimplybecauseoftheexpandingmarket.

3.Highfixedcostsresultinaneconomyofscaleeffectthatincreasesrivalry.Whentotalcostsaremostlyfixedcosts,thefirmmustproducenearcapacitytoattainthelowestunitcosts.Sincethefirmmustsellthislargequantityofproduct,highlevelsofproductionleadtoafightformarketshareandresultsinincreasedrivalry.

4.Highstoragecostsorhighlyperishableproductscauseaproducertosellgoodsassoonaspossible.Ifotherproducersareattemptingtounloadatthesametime,competitionforcustomersintensifies.

5.Lowswitchingcostsincreasesrivalry.Whenacustomercanfreelyswitchfromoneproducttoanotherthereisagreaterstruggletocapturecustomers.

6.Lowlevelsofproductdifferentiationisassociatedwithhigherlevelsofrivalry.Brandidentification,ontheotherhand,tendstoconstrainrivalry.

7.Strategicstakesarehighwhenafirmislosingmarketpositionorhaspotentialforgreatgains.Thisintensifiesrivalry.

8.Highexitbarriersplaceahighcostonabandoningtheproduct.Thefirmmustcompete.Highexitbarrierscauseafirmtoremaininanindustry,evenwhentheventureisnotprofitable.Acommonexitbarrierisassetspecificity.Whentheplantandequipmentrequiredformanufacturingaproductishighlyspecialized,theseassetscannoteasilybesoldtootherbuyersinanotherindustry.LittonIndustries'acquisitionofIngallsShipbuildingfacilitiesillustratesthisconcept.Littonwassuccessfulinthe1960'swithitscontractstobuildNavyships.ButwhentheVietnamwarended,defensespendingdeclinedandLittonsawasuddendeclineinitsearnings.Asthefirmrestructured,divestingfromtheshipbuildingplantwasnotfeasiblesincesuchalargeandhighlyspecializedinvestmentcouldnotbesoldeasily,andLittonwasforcedtostayinadecliningshipbuildingmarket.

9.Adiversityofrivalswithdifferentcultures,histories,andphilosophiesmakeanindustryunstable.Thereisgreaterpossibilityformavericksandformisjudgingrival'smoves.Rivalryisvolatileandcanbeintense.Thehospitalindustry,forexample,ispopulatedbyhospitalsthathistoricallyarecommunityorcharitableinstitutions,byhospitalsthatareassociatedwithreligiousorganizationsoruniversities,andbyhospitalsthatarefor-profitenterprises.Thismixofphilosophiesaboutmissionhasleadoccasionallytofiercelocalstrugglesbyhospitalsoverwhowillgetexpensivediagnosticandtherapeuticservices.Atothertimes,localhospitalsarehighlycooperativewithoneanotheronissuessuchascommunitydisasterplanning.

10.IndustryShakeout. Agrowingmarketandthepotentialforhighprofitsinducesnewfirmstoenteramarketandincumbentfirmstoincreaseproduction.Apointisreachedwheretheindustrybecomescrowdedwithcompetitors,anddemandcannotsupportthenewentrantsandtheresultingincreasedsupply.Theindustrymaybecomecrowdedifitsgrowthrateslowsandthemarketbecomessaturated,creatingasituationofexcesscapacitywithtoomanygoodschasingtoofewbuyers.Ashakeoutensues,withintensecompetition,pricewars,andcompanyfailures.

BCGfounderBruceHendersongeneralizedthisobservationastheRuleofThreeandFour:

astablemarketwillnothavemorethanthreesignificantcompetitors,andthelargestcompetitorwillhavenomorethanfourtimesthemarketshareofthesmallest.Ifthisruleistrue,itimpliesthat:

oIfthereisalargernumberofcompetitors,ashakeoutisinevitable

oSurvivingrivalswillhavetogrowfasterthanthemarket

oEventualloserswillhaveanegativecashflowiftheyattempttogrow

oAllexceptthetwolargestrivalswillbelosers

oThedefinitionofwhatconstitutesthe"market"isstrategicallyimportant.

Whateverthemeritsofthisruleforstablemarkets,itisclearthatmarketstabilityandchangesinsupplyanddemandaffectrivalry.Cyclicaldemandtendstocreatecutthroatcompetition.Thisistrueinthedisposablediaperindustryinwhichdemandfluctuateswithbirthrates,andinthegreetingcardindustryinwhichtherearemorepredictablebusinesscycles.

II.ThreatOfSubstitutes

InPorter'smodel,substituteproductsrefertoproductsinotherindustries.Totheeconomist,athreatofsubstitutesexistswhenaproduct'sdemandisaffectedbythepricechangeofasubstituteproduct.Aproduct'spriceelasticityisaffectedbysubstituteproducts-asmoresubstitutesbecomeavailable,thedemandbecomesmoreelasticsincecustomershavemorealternatives.Aclosesubstitute