世界经济总结资料.docx

世界经济总结资料.docx

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世界经济总结资料

WorldEconomy

TOPICGlobalisation

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References:

Essay-GlobalisationandEconomicGrowth

Essay-GlobalisationandtheRuralPoor

Essay-IsGlobalisationinDanger

PPT-introduction.ppt

PPT-developingcountries.ppt

PPT-transformationeconomies.ppt

Textbook-Ch9Developingcountries

Textbook-Ch10TheTransformationcountries

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全球化的定义

Liberalizationoftrade,investment,production,andotherfactors.

全球化的成因

1.Thefirstandperhapsmoreprofoundinfluenceistechnologicalchange.

2.Multilateraltradenegotiationsresultedinthecontinuingliberalizationoftradeandinvestment.

3.Globalizationhasalsobeenpromotedbythewidespreadliberalizationofinvestmenttransactionsandthedevelopmentofinternationalfinancialmarkets.

4.Fallsintransportandcommunicationscosts.

全球化的优点

1.Productivityincreasesfasterwhencountriesproducegoodsandservicesinwhichtheyhaveacomparativeadvantage.Livingstandardscanincreasemorerapidly.

2.Globalcompetitionandcheapimportskeepaconstraintonprices,soinflationislesslikelytodisrupteconomicgrowth.

3.Anopeneconomypromotestechnologicaldevelopmentandinnovation,withfreshideasfromabroad.

4.Jobsinexportindustriestendtopayabout15%morethanjobsinimport-competingindustries.

5.UnfetteredcapitalmovementsprovidetheUSaccesstoforeigninvestmentandmaintainlowinterestrates.

全球化的缺点

Globalizationcanmakethedomesticeconomyvulnerabletodisturbancesinitiatedoverseas.

1.MillionsofAmericanshavelostjobsbecauseofimportsorshiftsinproductionabroad.Mostfindnewjobsthatpayless.

2.MillionsofotherAmericansfeargettinglaidoff,especiallyatthosefirmsoperatinginImport-competingindustries.

3.Workersfacedemandsofwageconcessionsfromtheiremployers,whichoftenthreatentoexportjobsabroadifwageconcessionsarenotagreedto.

4.Besidesblue-collarjobs,serviceandwhite-collarjobsareincreasinglyvulnerabletooperationsbeingsentoverseas.

5.Americanemployeescanlosetheircompetitivenesswhencompaniesbuildstate-of-the-artfactoriesinlow-wagecountries,makingthemasproductiveasthoseintheUS.

全球化导致“分化大时代”的到来？

Idon'tthinkso.Thedivergenceclaimisweakened.Theworldincomeinequalitypeakedaround1970hasdeclinedsomewhatintheeraofunprecedentedglobalisationsincethen.Thisoutcomehasbeendrivenprimarilybythemuchimprovedgrowthperformanceoftwodevelopingcountries,ChinaandIndia.

全球化对经济增长是否有利？

Therewouldbeacautiousresponse.

First,distancestillmattered.Tradeflows,technologyflows,financialflowsandcapitalmovementsareallmuchreducedthegreateristhedistancebetweencountries.Moreover,distancefrommarketsandsourcesofsupplyishighlycorrelatedwithincomelevels.

Second,institutionalqualityalsohasaverystronginfluenceongrowthandlevelsofincome,particularlywithrespecttocapitalmarkets,bothasakeyinfluenceongrowthperformanceandintermsoffacilitatingsuccessfulparticipationinglobalisedfinance.Atthesametime,thereclearlyisanimportantroleforinstitutionaldiversityinrapidcatch-upgrowth.

全球化使收入不平等减弱甚至最终趋同？

Lucasarguesthat:

1Whilethe20thcenturywasmarkedbywideninginternationalincomeinequality,the21stcenturywillseethisreversed.

2Whilecapitalisfullymobileinternationally,internationalincomeinequalitiesshouldberapidlyreducedascapitalflowsfromrichtopoorcountries.

3Theprocessofeconomiccatch-upandconvergenceensueswhichexhibitsaninversecorrelationbetweeninitialincomelevelsandsubsequentgrowthofrealincomeperhead.

Lucasmodel:

Themodelisshowntoexhibitrisinginternationalinequalityofincomesinthe20thfollowedbyastrongturnaroundinthe21stcentury.Thatistosay,countriesthatstartgrowinglaterhavefasterinitialgrowthandthenexperiencegrowthproportionaltoincomegapwithleader.

Lucascriticize:

a.Theneweconomicgeographyschoolseestheprocessofdevelopmentnotasthesteadyconvergenceofthepoortotherich,butratherasarapidtransitionofaselectfewwhoarefavouredbylocation.

b.Thenewinstitutionaleconomichistoryviewpioneeredthatinstitutionsarecrucialininformingdecisionstoinvestand/ortoinnovate.Butthetraditionalsostressesthatbadinstitutionsarefrequentlypersistentandcanbevirtuallyimpossibletoreformbecauseofpathdependency.Intheabsenceofwell-definedpropertyrights,enforceablecontractsandgovernment,theneoclassicalcatch-upprocesswillbeaborted.

c.Governmentalsohasacrucialroletoplayincombattingcoordinationfailuresandinstabilityinthefinancialsystem,bothofwhichpotentiallyundermineinvestment.

d.Thedistributionofthegainsfrominternationaltradedeservesomeattention.Alimitingcasewouldbeoneofimmiserisinggrowthinwhichincreasesinproductivepotentialweremorethanoffsetbydeclinesinexportpricesandlossofpurchasingpoweroverimports.

全球化对农业的影响

Globalisationdeclinedinformationandcommunicationscosts,tradeprotectionism,tariffandnon-tariffbarriers.Whiletheexpansionofagriculturaltradehaslagged,reflectingthegenerallylowerincomeelasticitiesofdemandforprimarygoods,anditsshareintotalworldtradehasbeenfallen.Inshort,agriculturalliberalisationhassofarmadelimitedprogress.

1Agriculturalliberalisationmodelisnotworkingwellbecauseitisnoebeingapplied,i.e.becauseofextensivecontinuedprotectionismwithinOECD.

2Similarly,withinmanydevelopingcountriesliberalisationremainspartial,industrialprotectionismandotherotheranti-agriculturalbiasespersist,andmarketoutcomesoftendiffermarkedlyfromthetheoreticalideal.

3Anyresidualtendencyfortheforcesofglobalisationtofavourdevelopingcountrylabour-intensiveagriculturetendstobeoffsetbybiasesintechnologicalprogressinfavouroftemperatecropsandcapital-andskill-intensity.

全球化对贫困的影响

Globalisationisliabletochangethewelfareoftherurulpoorbyinfluencingtheefficiencyofresourceuse,thepaceofeconomicgrowth,andthedistributionofincome,throughtheirimpactontechnologies,onthesecurityoflivelihoods,onpoliciesandontheprovisionofpublicgoods.

Waysofaffectingthewelfareofruralpoor:

staticeffciencyeffects;dynamicgrowtheffects;technologicalprogress;distributionaleffects;insecurityeffects;policyeffects.

GOODs:

Thereisahugepotentialbenefit,forexample,fromanaccelerationofgrowthfollowingfromfullerintegrationintoarapidlyexpandingmarketforexports.Therearebenefitstobehadfrommoreproductiveresourceuses,fromimprovedaccesstotechnologicaladvancesandfrompolicyimprovementsinducedbyexogenouspressures.

BADs:

Againstthese,thereareveryrealdangersthattheruralpoorwillbeleftbehind;thattheywillnothaveaccesstotheknowledgeandotherassetsnecessaryforsuccessinanincreasinglycompetitiveworld;thatfoodsecuritymaybereduced;thatcontinuingpoliticalandpolicybiaseswilldiminishtheirprospectsofsharinginthepotentialbenefits;andthatglobalisationwillbeassociatedwithwideningincomedisparties.

Therearesomedeterminantsofoutcomes:

exogenousfactors;marketaccess;marketfailures;theassetsoftheruralpoor.

Avarietyoffactorspreventtheruralpoorfromrespondingaswellastheymighttomarketopportunitiesandheightenedcompetition:

theforceslimitingtheirmarketaccess（poorinformation,weakinstitutions,poorinfrastructure,etc.）andtheirinadequatecommandoverassetsthatwouldraisetheirmarketeffectiveness,notablyeducation,land,waterandfinance.

Atendencytowardsintensifyinginequalitiesofincomeandwealth,aswellasheightedinstabilityanduncertainly,preventgeneraleconomicprogressfrombeingtranslatedfullyintoimprovementsinthewell-beingofthepoor.

对全球化的威胁

Ideas;

Interests;

InstitutionalRelations;

Instability.

国际金融危机及其原因

Bigproblemsininternationalfinancialsystem:

fromdollarshortagetodollarglut.

ReasonsforU.S.chronicinternationaldeficit:

toomuchinflationathome;

overgenerosityintheaidandmilitaryprograms;

lackoftrustinthedollar;

therapidgrowthofproductivityabroad;

highinvestmentabroadbyAmericanfirms;

quadrupledpriceofOPECoil.

全球化和区域一体化的关系

1Regionalintegrationandglobalisationarestaggeredtopromoteeachother.Regionalintegrationispartofglobalisation,globalisationisthedevelopmentdirectionofregionalintegration.

2Globalisationhasabroaderscopethanregionalintegration,andregionalintegrationhasahigherlevelthantheglobalisation.

3Thestrengtheningofregionalintegrationwillimprovethepositionandenhancetheforceofthemembersintheprocessofglobalisation.

4Regionalintegrationandglobalisationareboththemeansoftransnationaloptimalallocation.Asaresultoftheregionalblocshavesimilargeography,politics,income,developmentlevelandeconomicadvantages,theyaremoreeasytoachievethefreemovementoffactorsofproduction,accordinglypavingthewayforglobalisation.

发达国家二战后格局发展历程

Stage1recoveryofworldeconomy（1945--1952）

Characteristics:

increasingGNPgrowthformainmarketeconomycountries

Stage2high-speedgrowthofworldeconomy（1953-1973）

Characteristics:

high-speedgrowth

Reasons:

thirdscientificandtechnologicalrevolution;adjustmentofproductionrelations.

Stage3stagflation（1973-1982）

Characteristics:

lowerGDPgrowthrateandhigherCPI

Reasons:

deficitfinance;debtincrease;monetarysupplyincrease;increasingpetroleumprice;surplusproductioncapability;internationalfacors.

Stage4economicreadjustmentandreformperiod（1983）

Characteristics:

reducegovernmentexpenditure;lowertaxrate;reducemonetarysupply;enterprise