价格形态百科矩形2.docx

价格形态百科矩形2.docx

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价格形态百科矩形2

32、RectangleBottoms

RESULTSSNAPSHOT

UpsideBreakouts

Appearance

Pricestrenddowntotheformationthenoscillatebetweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingoutupward.

ReversalOrConsolidation

Long-term（over6months）bullishreversal

FailureRate

0%

AverageRise

46%,withthemostlikelyriseabout20%

PrematureBreakouts

12%

VolumeTrend

Upward

Throwbacks

61%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

93%

SurprisingFindings

Actualbreakoutisoppositethatshownbyprematurebreakouts75%oftime

Seealso

RectangleTops

UpsideBreakouts

Appearance

Pricestrenddowntotheformationthenoscillatebetweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingoutdownward.

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）bearishconsolidation

FailureRate

4%

AverageDecline

19%,withmostlikelydeclinebetween10%and15%

PrematureBreakouts

17%

VolumeTrend

Downward

Pullbacks

70%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

65%

SurprisingFindings

Actualbreakoutisoppositethatshownbyprematurebreakouts75%oftime.

Seealso

RectangleTops

Likeotherformationswithoutaclassicdefinitionofatoporbottom,Idecidedtogiverectanglesadefinitionbyseparatingthembasedonthepricetrendapproachingthechartpattern.Ifthetrendisdownward,thentheformationisabottom.Ifthetrendisup,thentheformationclassifiesasatop.Thedistinctionisperhapsarbitrary,butitdoeshelpwithsearchingforreasonstoagivenbreakoutdirection.

矩形顶和矩形底的区别在于之前的价格趋势。

上涨趋势之后的矩形称为矩形顶，下跌之后矩形称为矩形底。

Thischapterconcernsitselfwithrectanglebottoms.Bottomshavetwobreakoutdirections:

upanddown（nosurprise,right?

）.TheResultsSnapshotliststhemoreimportantstatistics.Thefailurerateforrectangleswithupsidebreakoutsis0%.Donotgettooexcitedasthesamplesizeissmall（41formations）.Idonotbelievethatupsidebreakoutsneverfail.Theydo,itjustdidnothappenonmyshift.Onethingisclear,though:

Theyarereliable.Theaverageriseis46%,abovetheusual40%gainforbullishformations.Themostlikelyriseat20%isaboutwhatyouwouldexpect.Withsuchalargegain,itisnosurprisethattheformationmeetsitspricetarget93%ofthetime.Iconsideranythingabove80%tobereliable.

底部形态有两个突破方向，向上和向下。

矩形底向上突破的失败率是0，不要太激动，我的样本空间太小，只有41一个样本，不过至少说明矩形底的向上突破是很可靠的。

并且向上突破的涨幅高达46%，并且价格目标达成93%，相当好！

Rectangleswithdownsidebreakoutsperformalmostaswell.Theyhavea4%failurerate.ThatisverygoodasIconsiderreliableanythingbelow20%.Theaveragelossis19%,justshyoftheusual20%forbearishformations.Pullbacksscorewell,appearing70%ofthetime.Thatscoreishighenoughonwhichtobaseatradingtactic.Afteradownsidebreakout,shortthestockthenaddtothepositiononceapullbackreturnstotheformationandbeginsmovingdownagain（alwayswaitforthedownsidemovebecausepricesmightcontinueclimbing）.

向下突破也表现良好，失败率4%，平均跌幅19%符合一般水平。

70%概率回调，回调后再次下跌做空是个不错的策略（一定等再次下跌发生，不然价格可能继续涨）。

Asurprisingfindingisthataprematurebreakoutisoppositethegenuinebreakoutdirection75%ofthetime.WeexplorethisfurtherintheStatisticssection.

矩形底中，过早突破75%概率与真正突破方向相反。

Tour

Figure32.1showsanexampleofarectanglebottom.Theshort-termpricetrendisupward（for3daysanyway）leadingtotheformation,butIdiscardit.Ilookattheintermediate-termtrend,whichisdown,andviewthedeclineafewdaysbeforetheformationstartasanovershoot.Thiscommonlyhappensjustbeforepricesoscillatebetweenthesupportandresistancezones.

图32.1，尽管是三天的上涨之后进入矩形，但也不要因为这三天就归入矩形顶，要看中期趋势-下跌趋势。

ThechartpatternformsafterpriceslooparoundduringtheOctober1994toJanuary1995periodandretracesomeoftheirgains.Pricesdropquicklyfromthesupportzoneat57to52H,thentheybumpupagainstthetopoftherectangleresistancezoneat56andslinkbacktofindsupportat54.PricesbounceoffthetwozoneslikeaPing-Pongballricochetingoffplayerspaddles.Upanddown,upanddownpricesboomerangonvolumethatisrising.Soon,oneplayersneezesandtheballshootspasthim.Pricesmoveup,pausingonlyadaybeforemovinghigheronheavyvolume.Pricesquicklyclimbandenteranothercongestionzone;thistimeitisadescendingtrianglewithanupsidebreakout.

IdentificationGuidelines

Table32.1showsafewidentificationguidelinesforrectanglebottoms.Whilereviewingtheguidelines,considerhowtheyapplytotherectangleshowninFigure32.2.Thepricetrendleadingtotherectanglebottomisdownward,whichiswhatseparatesrectanglebottomsfromtheirtopbrothers.Iusuallyusetheintermediate-termpricetrendwhenconsideringwhetherpricesaretrendingupordown.Thisissubjectiveandvariesfromformationtoformation.AsshowninFigure32.1,Iignorethefewdaysjustbeforetheformationstarts,choosingtousetheprevailinglongertrendinstead.Pricesbouncebetweentwolevels,settingupasupportzoneatthebottomandalineofresistanceatthe

top.Ifyouconnecttheminorhighswithatrendline,itshouldbehorizontalornearlyso.Asimilarlinedrawnbelowthebottomsformsaparalleltrendline.Thetwotrendlinesboundthepriceaction.Occasionally,oneofthelineswillnotbeexactlyhorizontalorwillbreakneartheend,whichisfineaslongastheslopeisnottoosteeptodisturbtheoverallpicture.

使用中期趋势辨别矩形顶底。

两条趋势线要至少近似水平

Atleasttwotouchesofeachtrendlinearerequiredforavalidrectangle.Figure32.2showsthreealternatingtouches.Touchesneednotalternate,butyoushouldhaveatleasttwoclearlydefinedminorhighsandtwominorlowscomingclosetoortouchingthetrendlines.ExceptforthebriefpunchthroughthetopinearlyDecember,pricesstaywithinthetwoboundarylinesuntilbreakingoutdownwardonlightvolumeinmid-January.

每条趋势线至少需要两个触点。

图32.2中各3个触点。

上下触点交替出现，至少需要高点低点各清晰地两个。

Thevolumepatternissomewhatrandombutitdoesseemtotrackthebreakoutdirection.ForFigure32.1,thevolumepatternisupandsoisthebreakout.Figure32.2showshighvolumeatthestartoftheformationandlightvolumejustbeforethedownsidebreakout.Icautionagainsttryingtopredictthebreakoutdirectionbylookingatthevolumetrend.Althoughitdoestrackthebreakoutdirectionmoreoftenthannot,thechancesofitgoingwiththebreakoutdirectionisjustabovepickingthecorrectsideofacointoss.

成交量趋势跟随价格突破方向。

价格向上突破，成交上涨趋势；价格向下突破，成交下跌趋势。

但是，完全根据成交走势买入不比掷硬币强多少。

FocusonFailures

Figure32.3showsarectanglebottominadowntrend.Sincemostrectanglebottomsactasconsolidationsoftheprevailingtrend,thebreakoutisexpecteddownward.Pricesdropawayfromthesupportlineat54%and2dayslaterpullbacktotheformation.Pricesmovehorizontallyforseveraldaysbeforeultimatelyclimbingabovethetopoftherectangle.Whenpricespiercethetoprectangletrendlineandcloseaboveit,Iconsiderthedowntrendtobeover.

Sincetheinitialdeclinemovesjust3%down,theformationisafailure.Formationsthatdonotmoveinthebreakoutdirectionbymorethan5%arewhatIcall5%failures.Althoughthisformationultimatelymoveslower,itdoessoonlyafterclosingabovetheformationtop.Ifyousoldthisformationshortexpectingapricedecline,youmaybestoppedoutforaloss.Certainly,yourworrywouldclimbalongwithprices.Failuresdooccur,asFigure32.3illustrates,butrectanglesarereliable.Outof95formations,justtwoarefailures.ThatobservationconvenientlybringsustotheStatisticssection.

TradingTactics

Table32.5liststradingtacticsforrectanglebottoms.Thefirsttacticistodeterminethepredictedpricetargetusingthemeasurerule.Therulefirstfindsdieheightoftheformationbysubtractingthelowestlowfromthehighesthigh.Inessence,justsubtractthevalueofthetwotrendlinesfromeachother.Figure32.6showsanexampleofthis.Thetoptrendlineisatavalueof127/i6andthebottomoneisat11.Thedifference,17/16,istheformationheight.Addtheheighttothevalueofthetoptrendlinetogettheupsidebreakouttarget（137/g）andsubtractitfromthevalueofthelowertrendlinetogetthedownsidebreakouttarget（99/i6）.Someanalystssuggestmeasuringthelength（nottheheight）oftherectangle,flippingitvertically,andaddingorsubtractingitfromthetoporbottomtrendlinetogetthemaximumpricemove（forupsideanddownsidebreakouts,respectively）.Thissoundsabitfar-fetched,butitisahandyguideline.UseitwithcautionasIhavenotverifiedhowwellitworks.

测量规则：

矩形高度是最小价格目标，矩形长度是最大价格目标。

Sinceyoucannotpredictthebreakoutdirectionwithcompleteaccuracy,waitforthebreakoutbeforeinvesting.Placethetradeafterpricescloseoutsidetherectangletrendlines,thentradewiththetrend.Iftheformationistallenough,considerplacinganintraformationtradenearthetwotrendlines.Shortatthetopwhenpricesbegindescendingandcoverwhentheyreboundoffthebottomtrendline（donotcovertoosoonaspricesmaycontinuemovingdown）.Golongatthebottomandsellatthetoptrendlinewhenpricesbeginfalling.Again,waitforadirectionchangeaspricesmaystageanupsidebreakout.

Throwbacksandpullbacksallowinvestorsanotheropportunitytoplaceatrade,addtotheirposition,orgetoutwithasmallerloss.Takeadvantageofitbutwaitforpricestocompletetheirthrowbackorpullbackbeforeplacingatradeoraddingtoaposition.Thereasonisthatpricesmaycontinueintheadversedirectioninsteadofreturningtothetrendlineandrebounding.Sometimes,rectanglebottomsformasthecorrectivephaseofameasuredmoveformation.SeeMeasuredMoveDownforinformationonhowtotakeadvantageofthesituation.Occasionallyarectanglewillmar