外文翻译多样化数据资源.docx

外文翻译多样化数据资源.docx

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外文翻译多样化数据资源

Whatsourcesofvariationexist?

Typicalsourcesofvariationinapipelineriskassessmentinclude

Differencesinthepipelinesectionenvironments

Differencesinthepipelinesectionoperation

Differencesintheamountofinformationavailableonthepipelinesection

Evaluator-to-evaluatorvariationininformationgatheringandinterpretation

Day-to-dayvariationinthewayasingleevaluatorassignsscores

Everymeasurementhasalevelofuncertaintyassociatedwithit.Tobeprecise,ameasurementshouldexpressthisuncertainty:

fti1in.,15.7”F~0.2’.Thisuncertaintyvaluerepresentssomeofthesourcesofvariationspreviouslylisted:

operatoreffects,instrumenteffects,day-to-dayeffects,etc.

Theseeffectsaresometimescalledmeasurement“noise”asnotedpreviouslyinthesignal-to-noisediscussion.Thevariationsthatwearetryingtomeasure.therelativepipelinerisks.arehopefullymuchgreaterthanthenoise.Ifthenoiselevelis

toohighrelativetothevariationofinterest,orifthemeasurementistooinsensitivetothevariationofinterest,thedatabecomelessmeaningful.Reference[92]providesdetailedstatisticalmethodsfordeterminingthe“usefulness”ofthe

measurements.

Ifmorethanoneevaluatoristobeused,itiswisetoquantifythevariationthatmayexistbetweentheevaluators.Thisiseasilydonebycomparingscoringbydifferentevaluatorsofthesamepipelinesection.Therepeatabilityoftheevaluatorcanbejudgedbyhavingherperformmultiplescoringsofthesamesection（thisshouldbedonewithouttheevaluator’sknowledgethatsheisrepeatingapreviouslyperformedevaluation）.Ifthesesourcesofvariationarehigh,stepsshouldbetakento

reducethevariation.Thesestepsmayinclude

Improveddocumentationandprocedures

Evaluatortraining

Refinementoftheassessmenttechniquetoremovemoresubjectivity

Changesintheinformation-gatheringactivity

Useofonlyoneevaluator

Whyarethedatabeingcollected?

Clearlydefiningthepurposeforcollectingthedataisimportant.butoftenoverlooked.Thepurposeshouldtiebacktothemissionstatementorobjectiveoftheriskmanagementprogram.Theunderlyingreasonmayvarydependingontheuser,butitishopedthatthecommonlinkwillbethedesiretocreateabetterunderstandingofthepipelineanditsrisksinordertomakeimprovementsintheriskpicture.

Secondaryreasonsorreasonsembeddedinthegeneralpurposemayinclude

Identifyrelativeriskhotspots

Ensureregulatorycompliance

Setinsurancerates

Defineacceptablerisklevels

Prioritizemaintenancespending

Buildaresourceallocationmodel

Assigndollarvaluestopipelinesystems

Trackpipeliningactivities

Havingbuiltadatabaseforriskassessmentpurposes,somecompaniesfindmuchusefortheinformationotherthanriskmanagement.Sincetheinformationrequirementsforcomprehensiveriskassessmentaresoencompassing,thesedatabasesoftenbecomeacentraldepositoryandthebestreferencesourceforallpipelineinquiries.

VI.Conceptualizingariskassessmentapproach

Checklistfordesign

Asthefirstandarguablythemostimportantstepinriskmanagement,anassessmentofriskmustbeperformed.

Manydecisionswillberequiredindeterminingariskassessmentapproach.Whilealldecisionsdonothavetobemadeduringinitialmodeldesign.itisusefultohavearathercompletelistofissuesavailableearlyintheprocess.Thismighthelptoavoidbacktrackinginlaterstages,whichcanresultinsignificantnonproductivetimeandcost.Forexample,istheriskassessmentmodeltobeusedonlyasahigh-levelscreeningtoolormightitultimatelybeusedasasteppingstonetoariskexpressedinabsoluteterms?

Theearlierthisdeterminationismade,themoredirectwillbethepathbetweenthemodel’sdesignanditsintendeduse.

Thefollowingisapartiallistofconsiderationsinthedesignofariskassessmentsystem.Mostofthesearediscussedinsubsequentparagraphsofthischapter.

1.Purpose-Ashort,overallmissionstatementincludingtheobjectivesandintentoftheriskassessmentproject.

2.Audience-Whowillseeandusetheresultsoftheriskassessment?

Generalpublicorspecialinterestgroups

Local,state,orfederalregulators

Company-allemployees

Company-managementonly

Company-specificdepartmentsonly

3.Uses-Howwilltheresultsbeused?

Riskidentrficafion-theacquisitionofknowledge,suchaslevelsofintegritythreats,failureconsequencesandoverallsystemrisk,toallowforcomparisonofpipelinerisklevelsandevaluationofriskdrivers

Resourceallocation-whereandwhentospenddiscretionaryand/ormandatedcapitalandormaintenancefunds

Designormod&anoperatingdiscipline-reateanO&Mplanconsistentwithriskmanagementconcepts

Regulatorycomplianceforriskassessment-ifriskassessmentitselfismandated

Regulatorycomplianceforallrequiredactivities-flagsareraisedtoindicatepotentialnoncompliances

Regulatorycompliancewaivers-whererisk-basedjustificationsprovidethebasistorequestwaiversofspecificintegrityassessmentormaintenanceactivities

Projectappmvals+ostlbenefitcalculations,projectprioritizationsandjustifications

Preventivemaintenanceschedules-creatingmultiyearintegrityassessmentplansoroverallmaintenanceprioritiesandschedules

Duediligence-investigationandevaluationofassetsthatmightbeacquired,leased,abandoned,orsold,fromariskperspective

Liabilityreduction-reducethenumber,frequency,andseverityoffailures,aswellastheseverityoffailureconsequences,tolowercurrentoperatingandindirect

liability-relatedcosts

Riskcommunications-presentriskinformationtoanumberofdifferentaudienceswithdifferentinterestsandlevelsoftechnicalabilities

4.Users-Thismightoverlaptheaudiencegroup:

Internalonly

Technicalstaffonlwngineering,compliance,integrity,informationtechnology（IT）departments

Managers-budgetauthorization,technicalsupport,operations

Planningdepartment-facilityexpansion,acquisitions,andoperations

District-levelsupervisors-maintenanceandoperations

Regulators-ifregulatorsareshowntheriskmodeloritsresults

Otheroversight-itycouncil,investmentpartners,insurancecarrier,etc.-ifaccessgiveninordertodowhat-ifs,etc.

Publicpresentations-publicbearingsforproposedprojects

5.Resources-Whoandwhatisavailabletosupporttheprogram?

Data-type,format,andqualityofexistingdata

Sofhvare-urrentenvironments’suitabilityasresidenceforriskmodel

Hardware-urrentcommunicationsanddatamanage-mentsystems

Staff--availabilityofqualifiedpeopletodesignthemodelandpopulateitwithrequireddata

Monq~-availabilityoffundstooutsourcedatacollec-movements,thirdparty,humanerror,etc.

Industry-accesstobestindustrypractices,standards,andknowledge

6.Design-choicesinmodelfeatures,format,andcapabiliand

Scope

Failurecausesconsidered-corrosion,sabotage,landmovements,thirdparty,humanerror,etc.

Consequencesconsidered-publicsafetyonly,environment,costofserviceinterruption,employeesafety,etc.

Facilitiescovered-pipeonly,valves,fittings,pumps,tanks,loadingfacilities,compressorstations,etc.

Scoring-definescoringprotocols,establishpointranges（resolution）

Directionofscale-higherpointscanindicateeithermoresafetyormorerisk

Pointassignments-additionofpointsonly,multiplications,conditionals（ifXthenY）,categoryweightings,independentvariables,flatormultilevelstructures

Resolutionissues-rangeofdiameters,pressures,andproducts

Defaults-philosophyofassigningvalueswhenlittleornoinformationisavailable

Zone-ofinfluencedistances-forwhatdistancedoesapieceofdataprovideevidenceonadjacentlengthsofpipe

Relativeversusabsolure4hoiceofpresentationformatandpossiblymodelapproach

Reporting-typesandfrequencyofoutputandpresentationsneeded

Generalbeliefs

Inadditiontobasicassumptionsregardingtheriskassessmentmodel,somephilosophicalbeliefsunderpinthisentirebook.Itisuselltostatetheseclearlyatthispoint,sothereadermaybealertedtoanypossibledifferencesfromherownbeliefs.Thesearestatedasbeliefsratherthanfactssincetheyarearguableand

othersmightdisagreetosomeextent:

Riskmanagementtechniquesarefundamentallydecisionsupporttools.Pipelineoperatorsinparticularwillfindmostvaluableaprocessthattakesavailableinformationandassimilatesitintosomeclear,simpleresults.Actionscanthenbebaseddirectlyonthosesimpleresults.

Wemustgothroughsomecomplexityinordertoachieve“intelligentsimplification.”Manyprocesses,originatingfromsometimescomplexscientificprinciples,are“behindthescenes”inagoodriskassessmentsystem.Thesemustbewelldocumentedandavailable,butneednotinterferewiththecasualusersofthemethodology（everyonedoesnotneedtounderstandtheengineinordertobenefitfromuseofthe

vehicle）.Engineerswillnormallyseekarationalbasisunderpinningasystembeforetheywillacceptit.Therefore,thebasismustbewelldocumented.

Inmostcases,wearemoreinterestedinidentifyinglocationswhereapotentialfailuremechanismismoreaggressiveratherthanpredictingthelengthoftimethemechanismmustbeactivebeforefailureoccurs.

Aproperamountofmodelingresolutionisneeded.Themodelshouldbeabletoquantifythebenefitofanyandallactions,fromsomethingassimpleas“add

2newROWmarkers”allthewayupto“reroutetheentirepipeline.”

Manyvariablesimpactpipelinerisk.Amongallpossiblevariables,choicesarerequiredthatyieldabalancebetweenacomprehensivemodel（onethatcoversalloftheimportantstuff）andanunwieldymodel