从历史看电动自行车在中国快速转型的主要原因外文翻译.docx

从历史看电动自行车在中国快速转型的主要原因外文翻译.docx

《从历史看电动自行车在中国快速转型的主要原因外文翻译.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《从历史看电动自行车在中国快速转型的主要原因外文翻译.docx（8页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

从历史看电动自行车在中国快速转型的主要原因外文翻译

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目：

ThetransitiontoelectricbikesinChina:

historyandkeyreasonsforrapidgrowth

出处：

Transportation

作者：

JonathanWeinert、ChaktanMaandChristopherCherry

ThetransitiontoelectricbikesinChina:

historyandkey

reasonsforrapidgrowth

JonathanWeinertChaktanMaChristopherCherry

AbstractAnnualelectricbike（e-bike）salesinChinagrewfrom40,000in1998to10millionin2005.Thisrapidtransitionfromhuman-poweredbicycles,busesandgasoline-poweredscooterstoanall-electricvehicle/fueltechnologysystemisspecialintheevolutionoftransportationtechnologyand,thusfar,uniquetoChina.Weexaminehowandwhye-bikesdevelopedsoquicklyinChinawithparticularfocusonthekeytechnical,economic,andpoliticalfactorsinvolved.ThiscasestudyprovidesimportantinsightstopolicymakersinChinaandabroadonhowtimelyregulatorypolicycanchangethepurchasechoiceofmillionsandcreateanewmodeoftransportation.TheselessonsareespeciallyimportanttoChinaasitembarksonalarge-scaletransitiontopersonalvehicles,butalsotoothercountriesseekingmoresustainableformsoftransportation.

KeywordsE-bikeElectricbicycleElectricscooterTwo-wheelvehicle

Introduction

ElectricbikesareacategoryofvehiclesinChinathatincludestwo-wheelbikespropelledbyhumanpedalingsupplementedbyelectricalpowerfromastoragebattery,andlow-speedscooterspropelledalmostsolelybyelectricity（usuallywithperfunctorypedalstosatisfylegaldefinitions）.ThesevehicleshavebecomeapopulartransportationmodeforChineseconsumersbecausetheyprovideaninexpensiveandconvenientformofprivatemobilityandarethusanattractivealternativetopublictransitorregularbicycling.Theyarepromotedbynationalandmanylocalgovernmentsduetotheirlowenergyconsumptionandzerotailpipeemissions,especiallyimportantinChina’scongestedurbanareas.E-bikesaregaininganincreasingshareoftwo-wheeledtransportationthroughoutChina,andinsomecitieslikeChengduandSuzhou,haveevensurpassedthebicyclemodeshare.

Understandingthetransitiontoe-bikesisimportantforguidingthefutureofpersonalmobilityinChinaandotherdevelopingcountries.First,Chinaisonthebrinkoflarge-scalemotorization（i.e.peoplebuyingcars）.Understandinghowandwhyalarge-scaletechnologysystem（e-bikes）issuccessfullyadoptedmayprovideinsightandafoundationforasmoothertransitiontocleanervehicle/fuelsystemsforpersonalcarsasmotorizationcontinues.Secondly,manyotherdevelopingnationsinSoutheastAsiawithhightwo-wheelvehicle（2WV）suchasIndiaandVietnamuseareconfrontingthesameairqualityandenergyissuesasChina.ThesecountriesmaybeabletolearnfromChina’sexperienceinadoptinge-bikes.

Electricbikesbackgroundandcurrentstatus

TherearehundredsofmodelsofelectricbikesmanufacturedinChina.Mostcanbecategorizedasbicyclestyleelectricbikes（BSEB）orscooterstyleelectricbikes（SSEB）（seeFig.1）（JamersonandBenjamin2005）.Thereisaspectrumofstylesbetweenthesetwotypesthatalmostallelectricbikesstylesfallinto.TheSSEBshavemanyofthefeaturesofgasoline-poweredscooterssuchashorns,headlights,brakelights,turnsignalsandspeedometers.Mostrelyexclusivelyonelectricpower,nothumanpedaling.BSEBsaremoresimilarinappearanceandfunctiontostandardbicycles,includingfunctioningpedals.Inmostcities,electricbikesareallowedtooperateinthebicyclelaneandareconsideredabicyclefromaregulatoryperspective（i.e.helmetsanddriverslicensesarenotrequired）.

Thetechnologyofeachtypeofelectricbikeissimilar.Themaincomponentsofanelectricbatteryincludeahubmotor,controllerandbattery.BSEBstypicallyhave36Vbatteriesand180–250Wmotors.SSEBstypicallyhavelarger48Vbatteriesandhigher-poweredmotors350–500W.Electricbikesareregulatednottoexceed20km/h,butmany,especiallyscooters,cantravelatspeedsinexcessofthatlimitandsomeareadvertisedtogo40km/h.Asmallsub-surveyof14e-bikeusersrevealtopspeedsfrom25–40km/hrandrangesof25–50kmonasinglecharge,whichrequires6–8h.Electricbikebatteriesarerechargedfromastandardelectricaloutletandthusrequirenonewinfrastructure.Themajorityofe-bikeusersinterviewedchargetheire-bikesathomeduringthenightwhenelectricityischeaper.Inurbanareas,thistypicallymeanscarryingtheeitherthebatteryortheentiree-bikeintoamulti-levelapartmentbuilding.Itisalsocommontoseebikesbeingchargedduringthedayoutsideground-floorshopsusingstandardelectricaloutlets.

E-bikeissues

Safetyisperhapsthemostimportantissuefacinge-bikegrowth.InNovember2006,GuangzhoubecamethethirdcityinChinatobane-bikes（behindFuzhouandZhuhai）,underadvicefromthetrafficmanagementbureaucitingtrafficsafetyconcerns（XinhuaNet2006）.Thisisprimarilybecausee-bikes,whilebecomingfasterandheavier,areveryquiet.Whenoperating,theyarevirtuallyimperceptiblebyear,especiallytovehicles,whichmakese-bikeusersvulnerablebutalsodangeroustopedestrians.Thesafetyissueofe-bikesmixedintrafficisakeyconsiderationinthedraftingofnewNationalE-BikeStandards,whichareunderrevisionandunderintensedebate.

Whilee-bikesprovidezerotail-pipeemissions,theydoemitpollutionfrompowerplants,whichare75%coalfiredinChina（Cherry2006）.Thisresultsinincreasedemissionsofcertainpollutants,particularlySO2,whichisparticularlyproblematicinChinesecities.Otherpollutantsarelow,comparedtoalternativemodes（Cherry2006）.LeademissionsfrombatteryproductionandrecyclinghaveserioushealthimplicationsinChina.Becauseofpoorproductionandrecyclingpracticeswithintheleadandbatteryindustries,30–70%oftheleadinabatteryislosttotheenvironment.

TheChinesee-bikeindustry

TheChinesee-bikeindustry,withminimalgovernmentalfinancialsupportandindustrysupervision,hasdevelopedintothelargestproducerofe-bikesworldwide.Mostproducebetween10,000and50,000e-bikesayear,buttherearesixcompanieswithanannualproductionofover200,000e-bikes.

Onereasonforthelargenumberofcompaniesinthisindustryisthatcomponenttechnologyismature,thenetworkofsuppliersisvast,andmanufacturingisrelativelysimple.2ProfitmarginsofeightOEMsaverageatonly6%.Thereisalsoconsiderabletheftofintellectualproperty（IP）bythesmalltomediumcompaniesaccordingtointerviewswiththemanagersfromlargere-companies.BecauseofthelowbarrierstoentryandlaxIPprotection,therearemanyunlicensede-bikemakerssellingpoor-qualitybutlow-coste-bikes.SeveralOEMspredictthattherewillbeconsiderableconsolidationoverthenextfewyearsandthenumberofE-bikemakerswilldropsignificantly.

Thecompaniesthatcurrentlymakee-bikescomefromavarietyofindustrialbackgrounds.Someareestablishedcompaniesproducingbicycles,motorcycles,electricalappliances,andeventoycars,thatshiftedtomakinge-bikeswhendemandgrew.Someofthesecompaniesareover60yearsold,butmostdidnotstartproducinge-bikesuntilpost-2000.Manycompanieswithnopastmanufacturingexperienceenteredtheindustrymakinge-bikesdirectly.

Importantfactorsforrapide-bikegrowth

Thereasonsfore-bikesuccessinthe3rdphasecanbecategorizedintothreeimportantdevelopmentfactors:

technology,economics,andpolicy.

1、Technologyfactors

Improvementsinbatteryandmotortechnologysincethe90shelpedexpandthemarketfore-bikes.E-bikes,reachingrangesof50–60km.

Over95%ofe-bikessoldinChinausePb-acidbatteries（JamersonandBenjamin2005）.WhilePb-acidbatterieshavebeeninusefornearlyacenturyinautomobilesandotherapplications,therehavebeenimportantadvancesinthepastdecaderenderingthemmoresuitablefore-bikes.

Duringthefirstphaseofe-bikeintroduction,batteriesusedliquidacidelectrolyteinsteadofthefixedelectrolyteusedinmostPb-acidbatteriestoday.Liquid-typerequiredmoremaintenance,andifthebatteryorbikefellover,electrolyteleakedoutandcausedpropertydamage.Moste-bikestodayusevalve-regulatedPb-acidtypeswithgelorabsorbedglassmat（AGM）electrolyte,which,inadditiontoimprovingenergydensity,alsominimizesmaintenanceandelectrolytespillsduetoitssealednature（JamersonandBenjamin2005）.

2、Economicfactors

Themostimportanteconomicfactorsexplainingrapide-bikeadoptioninChinaaretherisingincomeleveloftheChinese,thedecreasingcostofe-biketechnology,andtherisingcostofgasoline.TherapiddevelopmentofChinainthepastdecadehasraisedthestandardoflivingofitsresidents,bringingthee-bikewithincloserreachofmillionsmore.Between1997and2004,averagedisposableincomeincreased82%from$645/yearto$1180/year.

Fuelpricehasrisensubstantiallyinthepast6years.GasolinepricesinShanghaiincreased45%since2002from$0.39to$0.56/liter（excludinginflation）.Consumerspurchasedecisionsaresensitivetofuelcostincreasessinceitisamorefrequentpayment.Alongwithrisinggasolineprices,electricitypricesfellinruralareas.Thispricedecreasewasduetosignificantinvestmentfromcentralgovernmentinelectricityinfrastructurethroughruralareasnationwide,andthedecisiontodropruralelectricitypricestourbanpricelevels.Beforethispolicywasenacted1998,electricitypriceinruralareaswas~50%higherthaninurbanareas（XinhuaNet2004）.Thisdecreaseinpricecombinedwithrisingincomecausedtherurale-bikemarketto

expandrapidly.3Oneelectricbik