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p001072
VisionofNuclearPowerOptionsforXXICentury
E.Adamov,E.Muraviev,V.Orlov
N.A. DollezhalResearchandDesignInstituteofPowerEngineering,Russia
Introduction
Havingenteredthethirdmillennium,mankindisstillunabletoboastofmoreorlessharmoniouslivingconditionsforeveryone.Intheyear200020%oftheworldpopulationconsumed60%ofallenergyproducedwhilemorethan2billionpeoplehadpercapitaelectricityconsumptionbelow1000 kWh/year(cf.25,000 kWh/yearinNorwayand25 kWh/yearinEthiopia).AboutthesamenumberofpeopleontheEarthhavenoaccesstomodernenergysources,andthisfiguremightbedoubledbytheyear2020.Todaytheworlddevelopmenttrendismarkedbythedesireofmanydevelopingcountriestodecreasethishugegapintheenergyconsumption.
Nuclearpowercanbecomethekeytechnologytohelpmeetingtheworldenergydemand.Itisoneoftheyoungbranchesoftheworldeconomyandnowitiscomingtotheendofthefirststageinitsdevelopment.Thisclosingperiodhasbeenmarkedbycomplicatedandsometimescontradictoryprocesses.Ontheonehand,underconditionsofastabilizedfuelmarketandsuccessfulenergysavingpoliciestheenergy-richindustrializedcountriesofAmericaandWesternEuropehavebeenlatelywindinguporreducingtheirnuclearprogrammes.Ontheotherhand,populationgrowthanddynamiceconomicriseofAsian,AfricanandSouthAmericanstatescallforadequateincreaseofenergyproduction.Intheirefforttocopewiththedevelopmentchallengesthesecountriesoftenfollowinthestepsofadvancednations,includingnuclearsphere,onacoursethatwasnotentirelysuccessfulinthe20thcentury.Theexistingnucleartechnologiesareunabletocopeinfullmeasurewithmanyacuteproblemsofnuclearpowerand,ifreproducedbydevelopingcountries,areboundtoleadtothesamepitfallsthattheleadingnuclearnationsarefacing.
Themostimportantfundamentalfeaturesofnuclearpower,whichdistinguishitfromotherenergytechnologies,arewellknown:
nuclearfuelhasamillionsoftimesgreaterenergyconcentrationaswellaspotentiallyinexhaustibleresources;nuclearpowerisfreefromthegreenhousegasesemissionswhileitswastesarerelativelysmallinvolume,theycanbesafelylocalizedandthemostdangerousamongthemcanbe“burned”innuclearreactors.
Thus,potentially,nuclearpowerhasalltheessentialqualitiesforgraduallyreplacingthebulkoffossilenergysourcesandforbecomingadominantenergytechnology.Itsdevelopmentstrategyshouldaimprimarilyatpavingthewayfortheindustry’sadvancementaswellasformaterializationofitsfundamentalpotentialities:
ademandforthesefundamentalqualitieswillalsomeanademandforalarge-scalenuclearpowerindustry.
Inthebeginningtherewasnoimmediateneedfornuclearpowereitheronaccountofscarcetraditionalenergyresourcesorfromtheviewpointofeconomicexpediency.
Thenuclearpowerindustryappearedinthenuclearweaponsstatesandreceiveditsfuelcyclecapabilitiesready-madefromthemilitarysectorthatcreatedthermalneutronreactorsfuelledwithU235forplutoniumandtritiumproductionandfornuclearsubmarines.Theburgeoningnucleartechnologywasvigorouslyexpandingthesphereofitsapplicationanditsnicheinthetechnologymarket.Ontheotherhand,asearlyasinthe1940sscientistsbecameawareofthepossibilitytoprovideinexhaustiblefuelresources,offeredbynuclearbreeding,whichmakesnuclearpoweranaturalsuccessortothefossil-fuelledpowerindustryandcallsfortimelypreparation.Alsoastrongmotiveofpoliticalandmoralnaturewasthecontrastbetweentheunprecedenteddestructivepowerofnuclearweaponsandtheboundlesspotentialitiesofpeacefulnuclearenergy.
Thesuccessfuloperatingrecordofthefirstciviliannuclearpowerfacilitiesgaverisetotheconceptofnuclearpowerdevelopmentintwostages:
1.Thermalneutronreactors(TRs)generateenergyandaccumulateplutoniumforthestartupandconcurrentdeploymentoffastneutronreactors;
2.Fastneutronreactors(FRs)aredeployedtoprovidelarge-scalegrowthofnuclearpower,whichwillgraduallyreplacethetraditionalfossilenergysources.
HoweverthefirstNuclearPowerPlants(NPPs)withFRsaimedathighPubreedingratiosturnedoutexpensiveandtooknocontinuation.MeanwhileafterthebigNPPaccidentsin1980sadditionalsafetymeasuresforNPPswithTRshadtobeappliedthatmadethem3-4timesmoreexpensive.Thefuelcycleremainingonce-through,noultimatesolutionsforthewastemanagementandnon-proliferationfound,thenuclearpowerbasedontheexpensiveNPPshavenotturnedintoacommonindustrycapabletogrownaturallyundertheconditionsoftheenergyandinvestmentmarket.
NewNuclearTechnology
Russiatookaninitiativetoworkoutalong-termnuclearpowerstrategy,whichwasthestepconsistentwiththecountry’straditionsandstatusinthisarea,withitsowninterestsaswellaswiththefundamentalinterestsoftheworldcommunity.ThisstrategywasformulatedinthedocumentapprovedbytheRussiangovernmentandalsoannouncedbyPresidentVladimirPutinattheUNMillenniumSummitonSeptember6,2000.TheStrategymainobjectiveistotransformtheexistingnuclearpowerindustry–withitsproblemswithsafetyandnon-proliferation,limitedresourcesandenvironmentalconstraints–intoanewnucleartechnology,freeofallthesedrawbacks.
Thenewnucleartechnologyisactuallybased(asoftenhappens)ontheforgottenideasofbrightpeoplewhostoodatitsfoundation.Backin1940sbothE. FermiintheU.S.andA. LejpunskiinformerSovietUnionbelievedthatthenuclearpowershouldbedevelopedonthebasisofFRs.ThenewconceptofFRBRESTwasdevelopedinRussiaintheendof1980sthrough1990s.HerethebasicphysicalfeatureofaFR,thatisagreaternumberofneutronsbornintheactofnuclearfission,isusednotforproducingmoreplutoniumbutratherforachievingthefeaturesofinherent,ornaturalsafety.Thelatterisensuredbyasetofinter-relatedphysicalanddesigndecisionsincludingtheuninflammable,high-boilingleadcoolant.Theachievedfundamentalresultisthe“deterministicexclusionofheavyaccidents”thatbecomesthefirstandthemostimportantsafetybarrierinthegenerallyacceptedstrategyofprotectionin-depth.OnsuchabasistheproofsofNPPssafetycanactuallybecomeconvincingandtheircostshouldreturntotheleveljustalittlehigherthanthatfortheusualthermalpowerplants,asitwasperceivedinthebeginning.So,incontrasttothewellknownideaofFRsasexpensiveFastBreederReactorsthatmustbeaminorpartinthegeneratingpowermix,providingextraPutofeedtheLWRs,thenewgenerationofFRsshouldbecomeanall-sufficientalternativetotheexistingTRs.
Onthefuelcyclesidethenewtechnologyenvisagesphasingoutenricheduraniumandpureplutoniumfromuseinthenuclearpowerindustry.ThenewgenerationofFRswilloperateonfuelofequilibriumcompositionthatdoesnotrequireanyadditionorextractionoffissileingredientsduringreprocessing.Onlyfissionproductswillbeextractedanddepletedornaturaluraniumadded,whilethemostdangerouslong-livingactinidesleftwithU-Pumixtureintheregeneratedfueltobe“burnt”inthereactor.
Thus,implementationofthenewnucleartechnologyshouldresultinthefuelresourcesturningpracticallyinexhaustible,eliminatingofsevereaccidents,producingenergyinanenvironmentallyacceptableway,disposingofwastewithoutupsettingthenaturalradiationequilibrium,technologicallyreinforcingthenonproliferationregimeandbringingtheeconomicperformancetostrongcompetitiveness.
AnalysisTool
Thediscussedabovenuclearpowerdevelopmentstrategyasdescribedin1,2,wassupportedbysubstantialanalyticalstudiescarriedoutinvariousinstitutesandcompaniesfortheconditionsofRussianeconomyandthenationalnuclearpowerindustry.ForthepurposeofthestudypresentedinthisreportanewanalyticalresearchtoolrecentlydevelopedourInstitutehasbeenused.ItiscalledtheUniversalSystemModel,shortlyUSM-1.
USM-1isamodelofacomplicatedevolvingSystemlikeanindustry.Themainobjectiveforitsuseispreparationofinformationintheformofcalculatedself-consistentandoptimizeddevelopmentscenariosasabasisfordecisionmaking,takingintoaccountbotheconomicalandnon-economicalcriteria,e.g.,safety,ecologicalacceptabilityandnon-proliferation.Itcanbeusedalsoforpreparationofinitialdataandsupportinganalysisfordesignprojects.
USM-1keyfeatures:
∙“Objectbased”–theSystemmodelisconstructedwiththeuseoftheseparateobjectmodelscalledComponents,whichconsumetheinputProducts,producetheoutputProductsandevolveintime.AwidevarietyofComponentscanbecreatedfromthestandardtemplatethatincludesageneralizedtechnical-economicaldescription.ThecreatedComponentscanbestudiedasindependentobjects.
∙Universalitymeansanumberofaspects:
osystemhierarchicalstructure:
itispossible,e.g.,tostudyanenterpriseconsistingofShop-Components,oranNPPwithUnit-Components,oralltheNPPswithseparateNPP-Components,oreventheentirePowerIndustrywithdifferenttypePlant-Componentsetc.;
oinfrastructure:
thesystemcanincludeComponentsthatproduceorbuildotherComponents,alternativelyspecial“constructing”SubcomponentscanbeincorporatedintothestructureofanyComponent.InthesamewaycanbeconsideredtheinfrastructurerelatedtotheComponentsdecommissioning.AlsoforanypairofComponents,mutuallyidentifiedwithinthesystemasSupplier-ConsumerofacertainProduct,anau