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p001072

VisionofNuclearPowerOptionsforXXICentury

E.Adamov,E.Muraviev,V.Orlov

N.A. DollezhalResearchandDesignInstituteofPowerEngineering,Russia

Introduction

Havingenteredthethirdmillennium,mankindisstillunabletoboastofmoreorlessharmoniouslivingconditionsforeveryone.Intheyear200020%oftheworldpopulationconsumed60%ofallenergyproducedwhilemorethan2billionpeoplehadpercapitaelectricityconsumptionbelow1000 kWh/year（cf.25,000 kWh/yearinNorwayand25 kWh/yearinEthiopia）.AboutthesamenumberofpeopleontheEarthhavenoaccesstomodernenergysources,andthisfiguremightbedoubledbytheyear2020.Todaytheworlddevelopmenttrendismarkedbythedesireofmanydevelopingcountriestodecreasethishugegapintheenergyconsumption.

Nuclearpowercanbecomethekeytechnologytohelpmeetingtheworldenergydemand.Itisoneoftheyoungbranchesoftheworldeconomyandnowitiscomingtotheendofthefirststageinitsdevelopment.Thisclosingperiodhasbeenmarkedbycomplicatedandsometimescontradictoryprocesses.Ontheonehand,underconditionsofastabilizedfuelmarketandsuccessfulenergysavingpoliciestheenergy-richindustrializedcountriesofAmericaandWesternEuropehavebeenlatelywindinguporreducingtheirnuclearprogrammes.Ontheotherhand,populationgrowthanddynamiceconomicriseofAsian,AfricanandSouthAmericanstatescallforadequateincreaseofenergyproduction.Intheirefforttocopewiththedevelopmentchallengesthesecountriesoftenfollowinthestepsofadvancednations,includingnuclearsphere,onacoursethatwasnotentirelysuccessfulinthe20thcentury.Theexistingnucleartechnologiesareunabletocopeinfullmeasurewithmanyacuteproblemsofnuclearpowerand,ifreproducedbydevelopingcountries,areboundtoleadtothesamepitfallsthattheleadingnuclearnationsarefacing.

Themostimportantfundamentalfeaturesofnuclearpower,whichdistinguishitfromotherenergytechnologies,arewellknown:

nuclearfuelhasamillionsoftimesgreaterenergyconcentrationaswellaspotentiallyinexhaustibleresources;nuclearpowerisfreefromthegreenhousegasesemissionswhileitswastesarerelativelysmallinvolume,theycanbesafelylocalizedandthemostdangerousamongthemcanbe“burned”innuclearreactors.

Thus,potentially,nuclearpowerhasalltheessentialqualitiesforgraduallyreplacingthebulkoffossilenergysourcesandforbecomingadominantenergytechnology.Itsdevelopmentstrategyshouldaimprimarilyatpavingthewayfortheindustry’sadvancementaswellasformaterializationofitsfundamentalpotentialities:

ademandforthesefundamentalqualitieswillalsomeanademandforalarge-scalenuclearpowerindustry.

Inthebeginningtherewasnoimmediateneedfornuclearpowereitheronaccountofscarcetraditionalenergyresourcesorfromtheviewpointofeconomicexpediency.

Thenuclearpowerindustryappearedinthenuclearweaponsstatesandreceiveditsfuelcyclecapabilitiesready-madefromthemilitarysectorthatcreatedthermalneutronreactorsfuelledwithU235forplutoniumandtritiumproductionandfornuclearsubmarines.Theburgeoningnucleartechnologywasvigorouslyexpandingthesphereofitsapplicationanditsnicheinthetechnologymarket.Ontheotherhand,asearlyasinthe1940sscientistsbecameawareofthepossibilitytoprovideinexhaustiblefuelresources,offeredbynuclearbreeding,whichmakesnuclearpoweranaturalsuccessortothefossil-fuelledpowerindustryandcallsfortimelypreparation.Alsoastrongmotiveofpoliticalandmoralnaturewasthecontrastbetweentheunprecedenteddestructivepowerofnuclearweaponsandtheboundlesspotentialitiesofpeacefulnuclearenergy.

Thesuccessfuloperatingrecordofthefirstciviliannuclearpowerfacilitiesgaverisetotheconceptofnuclearpowerdevelopmentintwostages:

1.Thermalneutronreactors（TRs）generateenergyandaccumulateplutoniumforthestartupandconcurrentdeploymentoffastneutronreactors;

2.Fastneutronreactors（FRs）aredeployedtoprovidelarge-scalegrowthofnuclearpower,whichwillgraduallyreplacethetraditionalfossilenergysources.

HoweverthefirstNuclearPowerPlants（NPPs）withFRsaimedathighPubreedingratiosturnedoutexpensiveandtooknocontinuation.MeanwhileafterthebigNPPaccidentsin1980sadditionalsafetymeasuresforNPPswithTRshadtobeappliedthatmadethem3-4timesmoreexpensive.Thefuelcycleremainingonce-through,noultimatesolutionsforthewastemanagementandnon-proliferationfound,thenuclearpowerbasedontheexpensiveNPPshavenotturnedintoacommonindustrycapabletogrownaturallyundertheconditionsoftheenergyandinvestmentmarket.

NewNuclearTechnology

Russiatookaninitiativetoworkoutalong-termnuclearpowerstrategy,whichwasthestepconsistentwiththecountry’straditionsandstatusinthisarea,withitsowninterestsaswellaswiththefundamentalinterestsoftheworldcommunity.ThisstrategywasformulatedinthedocumentapprovedbytheRussiangovernmentandalsoannouncedbyPresidentVladimirPutinattheUNMillenniumSummitonSeptember6,2000.TheStrategymainobjectiveistotransformtheexistingnuclearpowerindustry–withitsproblemswithsafetyandnon-proliferation,limitedresourcesandenvironmentalconstraints–intoanewnucleartechnology,freeofallthesedrawbacks.

Thenewnucleartechnologyisactuallybased（asoftenhappens）ontheforgottenideasofbrightpeoplewhostoodatitsfoundation.Backin1940sbothE. FermiintheU.S.andA. LejpunskiinformerSovietUnionbelievedthatthenuclearpowershouldbedevelopedonthebasisofFRs.ThenewconceptofFRBRESTwasdevelopedinRussiaintheendof1980sthrough1990s.HerethebasicphysicalfeatureofaFR,thatisagreaternumberofneutronsbornintheactofnuclearfission,isusednotforproducingmoreplutoniumbutratherforachievingthefeaturesofinherent,ornaturalsafety.Thelatterisensuredbyasetofinter-relatedphysicalanddesigndecisionsincludingtheuninflammable,high-boilingleadcoolant.Theachievedfundamentalresultisthe“deterministicexclusionofheavyaccidents”thatbecomesthefirstandthemostimportantsafetybarrierinthegenerallyacceptedstrategyofprotectionin-depth.OnsuchabasistheproofsofNPPssafetycanactuallybecomeconvincingandtheircostshouldreturntotheleveljustalittlehigherthanthatfortheusualthermalpowerplants,asitwasperceivedinthebeginning.So,incontrasttothewellknownideaofFRsasexpensiveFastBreederReactorsthatmustbeaminorpartinthegeneratingpowermix,providingextraPutofeedtheLWRs,thenewgenerationofFRsshouldbecomeanall-sufficientalternativetotheexistingTRs.

Onthefuelcyclesidethenewtechnologyenvisagesphasingoutenricheduraniumandpureplutoniumfromuseinthenuclearpowerindustry.ThenewgenerationofFRswilloperateonfuelofequilibriumcompositionthatdoesnotrequireanyadditionorextractionoffissileingredientsduringreprocessing.Onlyfissionproductswillbeextractedanddepletedornaturaluraniumadded,whilethemostdangerouslong-livingactinidesleftwithU-Pumixtureintheregeneratedfueltobe“burnt”inthereactor.

Thus,implementationofthenewnucleartechnologyshouldresultinthefuelresourcesturningpracticallyinexhaustible,eliminatingofsevereaccidents,producingenergyinanenvironmentallyacceptableway,disposingofwastewithoutupsettingthenaturalradiationequilibrium,technologicallyreinforcingthenonproliferationregimeandbringingtheeconomicperformancetostrongcompetitiveness.

AnalysisTool

Thediscussedabovenuclearpowerdevelopmentstrategyasdescribedin1,2,wassupportedbysubstantialanalyticalstudiescarriedoutinvariousinstitutesandcompaniesfortheconditionsofRussianeconomyandthenationalnuclearpowerindustry.ForthepurposeofthestudypresentedinthisreportanewanalyticalresearchtoolrecentlydevelopedourInstitutehasbeenused.ItiscalledtheUniversalSystemModel,shortlyUSM-1.

USM-1isamodelofacomplicatedevolvingSystemlikeanindustry.Themainobjectiveforitsuseispreparationofinformationintheformofcalculatedself-consistentandoptimizeddevelopmentscenariosasabasisfordecisionmaking,takingintoaccountbotheconomicalandnon-economicalcriteria,e.g.,safety,ecologicalacceptabilityandnon-proliferation.Itcanbeusedalsoforpreparationofinitialdataandsupportinganalysisfordesignprojects.

USM-1keyfeatures:

∙“Objectbased”–theSystemmodelisconstructedwiththeuseoftheseparateobjectmodelscalledComponents,whichconsumetheinputProducts,producetheoutputProductsandevolveintime.AwidevarietyofComponentscanbecreatedfromthestandardtemplatethatincludesageneralizedtechnical-economicaldescription.ThecreatedComponentscanbestudiedasindependentobjects.

∙Universalitymeansanumberofaspects:

osystemhierarchicalstructure:

itispossible,e.g.,tostudyanenterpriseconsistingofShop-Components,oranNPPwithUnit-Components,oralltheNPPswithseparateNPP-Components,oreventheentirePowerIndustrywithdifferenttypePlant-Componentsetc.;

oinfrastructure:

thesystemcanincludeComponentsthatproduceorbuildotherComponents,alternativelyspecial“constructing”SubcomponentscanbeincorporatedintothestructureofanyComponent.InthesamewaycanbeconsideredtheinfrastructurerelatedtotheComponentsdecommissioning.AlsoforanypairofComponents,mutuallyidentifiedwithinthesystemasSupplier-ConsumerofacertainProduct,anau