国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译.docx
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国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译
China’sCompetitivePerformance:
AThreatToEastAsianManufacturedExports?
ThereisgrowingconcerninSoutheastandEastAsiaaboutthecompetitivethreatposedbyChina’sburgeoningexports,exacerbatedbyitsaccessiontotheWTO.Thethreatisnotconfinedtolabor-intensiveproductsbutspansthewholetechnologicalandskillrange.Atthesametime,Chinaisrapidlyraisingitsimportsfromtheregion,anditisnotclearwhetheritsburgeoningexportswilldamageitsneighbors.WeexaminethedimensionsofChina’scompetitivethreatinthe1990s,benchmarkingcompetitiveperformancebytechnologyandmarket,andfindsthatmarketsharelossesaresofarmainlyinlowtechnologyproducts,withJapanbeingthemostvulnerablemarket.Weanalyzemarketsharechangesandhighlightproductgroupsthataredirectlyorindirectlyexposedtoacompetitivethreat.Weexamineintra-regionaltradeandfindthatChinaanditsneighborsareraisinghightechnologyexportsintandem:
thenatureoftheinternationalproductionsystemsinvolvedleadtocomplementarilyratherthanconfrontation.Chinaisthusactingasanengineofexportgrowthforitsneighborsintermsofdirecttrade.However,thiswillchangeasChinamovesupthevaluechainandtakesontheactivitiesthathavedrivenEastAsianexportgrowth.
Introduction
ConcernaboutChina’scompetitivethreatiswidespread(indevelopedeconomieslikeUSaswellasdevelopingoneslikeMexico),butisstrongestinEastandSoutheastAsia.China’sburgeoningexports–backedbycheapandproductivelabor,alargestockoftechnicalmanpower,hugeanddiversifiedindustrialsector,attractivenesstoforeigninvestors,pragmaticuseofindustrialpolicy,and,now,freeraccesstoworldmarketsunderWTO–leadtoapocalypticvisionsofexportlosses.2Chinaismostthreateningtoneighborsthatrelyprimarilyonlowwagesfortheirexportadvantage.However,asitupgradesitsexportstructure,themoreadvancedeconomies(Singapore,HongKong,KoreaandTaiwan)alsofearfortheircompetitiveness.Thecurrenthollowingoutoftheirlow-endmanufacturingmaysoonextendtocomplexproduction,design,developmentandrelatedservices.DomesticmarketsarealsothreatenedbyChina,butsofarmostattentionseemstohavebeenonexports.
OffsettingthisthreatarethepromiseofthegiantChinesemarket(WTOaccessionisonlyoneofseveralinitiativestoliberalizeregionaltrade)andthepotentialforcollaborationwithitinexportingtotherestoftheworld.TradewithintheEastAsianregionisflourishing.Chinaisagrowingimporterfromtheregionofnaturalresourcesthatitdoesnotpossess.Itisalsoraisingimportsofmanufacturedproducts.Itsadvancedneighborsaresellingitsophisticatedconsumerandproducergoods,andusingitasabaseforprocessingexportstothirdcountries.Themultinationalcompanies(MNCs)thatnowaccountforaroundhalfofChineseexports(andfarmoreofitshightechnologyexports,UNCTAD,2002)areincorporatingChinaintoproductionsystemsspanningtheregion(‘fragmentation’and‘segmentation’areusedtodescribethisphenomenon3),sopromotingconsiderableintra-firmtradewithotherregionalbases.China’sownenterprisesarelikelytospecializewithrespecttoregionalcounterpartsandsoraiseintra-industrytradeindifferentiatedproducts.Perhapsworryinglyforcompetitorsinotherregions,suchintegrationcanleadChinatocomplementregionalcompetitivenessasawhole,ratherthansubstituteitsexportsforthoseofitsneighbors.
Itisdifficulttoassess,however,whethercomplementarilybetweenChinaandtheregionaleconomieswillfullyoffsetitscompetitivethreat.Thedynamicsandcomplexityoftheinteractionsmakeitimpossibletoquantifytheoutcome,eventopredictbroaddirections.ThebasicissueiswhetherChina’shigherwageneighborscanmoveintomoreadvancedexportactivitiesorfunctionsrapidlyenoughtopermitcontinuedexportexpansion.Iftheycan,theycancontinuewithexport-ledgrowth.Iftheycannot,theywillsufferexportdecelerationand/orashiftinspecializationtowardsprimaryproductsorslow-growingsegmentsofmanufacturedexports.Theoutcome,inotherwords,willdependontherelativegrowthoftechnologicalandothercapabilitiesinChineseandregionalenterprises,withtheformerhavingsuchadvantagesaslowerwages,largerscaleeconomies,greaterindustrialdepth,poolsoftechnicalskillandaproactivegovernment.However,asEastAsiancountriesdifferwidelyinthesefactors(Lall,2001),theyfacedifferentkindsandintensityofcompetitivethreat.Thenatureofthethreatdepends,moreover,ontheorganizationoftheproductionandmarketingsystem:
independentlocalfirmsarelikelytocompetemoredirectlythanaffiliatesofthesameMNCspreadoverdifferentcountriesinanintegratedsystem.
ThispaperdoesnottrytomeasureChina’scompetitivethreatoritseffects,buttomaprelativeexportperformanceinthe1990sbytechnologyanddestinationandsoassesswherethethreatappearsmostintense.WefocusonmajorEastAsianexporters5andonexportstothirdmarkets,butwealsoanalysescomplementaritiesbetweenChinaandEastAsia,particularlyinelectronics,theregion’slargestexportandtheonewhereMNCsystemsdominate.Asthe1990spredateChina’sWTOaccession,wedonotgointotheimplicationsofthisaccession;however,theanalysisofcompetitivetrendshasimplicationsfortheevolutionoffuturetradebytheregionasliberalizationgrows.
BackgroundonChineseexportperformance
Chinesemanufacturedexportsgrewby16.9%perannumover1990-2000,comparedto6.4%fortheworld,12.0%foralldevelopingcountriesand10.3%fortherestofEastAsia.Itsshareofworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom1.7%to4.4%overthedecadeandcontinuedrisingrapidly.6Thus,by2002Chinaaccountedfor5.1%ofworldmerchandiseexports;itwasthenthefifthlargestexporter(afterUSA,Germany,JapanandFrance,andaheadoftheUK).China’sshareofdevelopingworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom11%to20%overthe1990sandoftheEastAsianregionexcludingChinafrom18.7%to41.8%.Itsexportgains(seebelow)spannedtheentiretechnologicalspectrum,andweremostdynamicinthecomplexendoftherange,inproductsthathaverecentlydriventheexportgrowthoftherestofEastAsia.
Thisexportsurgeislikelytobesustainedforsometimetocome.Chinahas‘sparecapacity’inthatitspercapitaexportsarestillrelativelysmall,7wagesaremuchlowerthaninitsmainneighborsandithaslargereservesofcheapanddisciplinedlabor(thoughdrawingitintoexportswillinvolvethecostofbuildinglinkswiththeinterior).8Moreimportantly,itsadvantagesarenotstatic(confinedtocheaplabor);theyareupgradingrapidly.Chinaisinvestingheavilyintechnologyandadvancedskills;forexample,theshareoftherelevantagegroupenrolledintertiaryeducationrosefrom9percentin1997to13percentin2000(UNESCOwebsite).Itisexploitingthescaleofferedbyitsgiantmarkettobecomecompetitiveincapital-intensiveactivitiesbeyondthereachofmanyneighbors.Itisusingitsdiverseindustrialbasetodeepenlocalcontent.Itisdrawinginexport-orientedFDIatanimpressiverate,usingitsmarketattractionstoinduceinvestorstoraiselocalR&Dandlinkages;tillnowithasbeenabletoimposeperformancerequirementsofthetypesoontobebannedunderWTOrules.
WTOaccessionmayconstrainChina’sabilitytouseindustrialpolicy(Nolan,2001)butitwillalsoopenupnewexportopportunities,particularlyintextilesandgarments.9Accessionmayalsoenhanceitsdomesticcompetitiveness:
itwillimprovetheinvestmentclimateforFDI,makeimportedinputscheaper(forenterprisesoutsidespecialexportregimes)andinducefasterrestructuringofdomesticenterprises(Ianchovichinaetal,2003,andLemoyneandUnal-Kesenci,2002).
Marketsharechangesinmajordevelopedcountrymarkets
WeanalyzemarketsharesofChinaanditsneighborsinthreemajormarkets:
Japan,theUSandWestEurope,accordingtotechnologycategories(AnnexTable1).Intermsofvalue,themostimportantmarketforChinain2000istheUS($49billion),followedbyJapan($36billion)andWestEurope($38billion).However,therestoftheworldisalmostaslargeadestinationforChineseexportsasthesetogether($106billionin2000)andwithinthistherestofEastAsiaislargerthananymajorOECDmarketbyitself($74.6billion).
Thecompetitivepositionofeachcountrycanbeanalyzedintermsofthemarketsharein1990and2000andthechangeoverthedecade.Theannextableshowsthefollowing:
Totalmanufacturedexports:
ChinadoesbestinJapan,followedatsomedistancebytheUS.Incommonwithmostneighbors,itsmarketsharegainisweakestinWestEurope.KorealosesmarketsharesinbothJapanandUS,whileTaiwanlosesonlyintheUS.HongKong’slosesmarketsharesinallmarkets,particularlyintheUSandJapan.LikeTaiwan,SingaporelosesonlyintheUS.ThenewTigersgainshareinallmarkets.WiththeexceptionofIndonesia,witharathertepidperformance,theothersallgainmostshareintheJapanesemarket.
Resourcebasedproducts:
Chinaagainleadstheregionintermsofmarketshareincreases,withapatternsimilartothatfortotalexports.However,KoreahasalargegaininJapan,incontrasttoTaiwanandSingapore,whichloseshares;thelattertwoalsoloseintheUS.ThailandisabiggainerinJapanwhileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesloseoutintheUS.Lowtechnologyproducts:
China’smassivemarketsharegainsareagainconcentratedinJapan.ThefourmatureTigersgenerallysufferlossesinmarketshare,butSingaporeseesanincreaseinJapane