1、国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译Chinas Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by Chinas burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products
2、 but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dimensions of Chinas competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive perf
3、ormance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine int
4、ra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direc
5、t trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about Chinas competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in Ea
6、st and Southeast Asia. Chinas burgeoning exportsbacked by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO lead to apocal
7、yptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hol
8、lowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports. Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTO a
9、ccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. I
10、t is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more
11、 of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (fragmentation and segmentation are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. Chinas own enterprises are likely to special
12、ize with respect to regional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbor
13、s.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether Ch
14、inas higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary prod
15、ucts or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth,
16、 pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: i
17、ndependent local firms are likely to compete more directly than affiliates of the same MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure Chinas competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destin
18、ation and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the regions largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As t
19、he 1990s predate Chinas WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew
20、by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world me
21、rchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). Chinas share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see bel
22、ow) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has spare capacity in that its per capita ex
23、ports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap
24、labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market
25、 to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of many neighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; ti
26、ll now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain Chinas ability to use industrial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enh
27、ance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002). Market share changes
28、 in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan
29、($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion). The competitive position of
30、each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in
31、 West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kongs loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, wi
32、th a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market.Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has a large gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapo
33、re, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: Chinas massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japane
copyright@ 2008-2022 冰豆网网站版权所有
经营许可证编号:鄂ICP备2022015515号-1