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Hungarystepsout

THEsymbolismwastelling.InsideBudapest'sOperaHouse,Hungary’sgreatandgoodwereknockingbacksparklingwineatagalaeventtocelebratetheinaugurationofthecountry’snewconstitution,whichcameintoeffectonJanuary1st.Outside,onAndrássyAvenue,tensofthousandsofprotestorsdemandeditswithdrawal.

Brushingoffthedemonstrations,PresidentPalSchmitthailedHungary’snew"basiclaw"asabravenewdawn.Itmaywellbe,butprobablynotthekindthatHungary’srulersarehopingfor.AstheblogContrarianHungarianreports,protestorsareincreasinglytakingcontrolofthestreets.TheAndrássyAvenuemarchwasjustthelatestinaseriesofpublicactionsagainstthegovernment'sgrowingautocratictendenciesanditsrelentlesscentralisationofpower.

Monday’sprotestsweresignificantaswellassymbolic.Thiswasthefirsttimethatoppositionparties—theSocialists,theDemocraticCoalitionandthegreen-liberalLMP—hadjoinedforceswithstreetactivists.PeterKonya,leaderoftheHungarianSolidarityMovement,welcomedwhathecalled“thelongabsentco-operationbetweencivilgroupsandpartiesofthedemocraticopposition”.

GaborIvanyi,aMethodistpastor,toldthecrowdthat“Thereisnotruthwherelawsarepassedforcefully,withoutconsultations,wherepeopleliveinfearandwherepeoplearenotequal.”MrIvanyiisoneof13formerdissidentsandliberalpoliticianstohavesignedalettercallingfortheEuropeanUniontointerveneandprotectHungariandemocracy.

GovernmentofficialsdenythatHungariandemocracyisindanger.How,theyask,canthisbesowhenanenormouscrowdisfreetodemonstrateoutsidetheverybuildingwheretheyarecelebrating?

In2010theright-wingFideszpartywonatwo-thirdsparliamentarymajorityinafreeandfairelection,theyargue,andthegovernmentissimplyfulfillingitsmandateofradicalchangeandrenewal.

ButasthegovernmentbrushesoffrequestsfromtheEU,theIMF,theEuropeanCentralBankandtheUnitedStatestoreconsiderkeylegislationthatmaybeinbreachofitsinternationaltreatyobligations,suchargumentssoundincreasinglyunconvincing.

   TenyearsofChinaintheWTO

CHINA’SeffortstojointheWorldTradeOrganisation（WTO）draggedonfor15years,longenoughto“turnblackhairwhite”,asZhuRongji,China’sformerprimeminister,putit.（HisownhairremainedPolitburo-blackthroughout.）Evenaftermembershipwasgranted,tenyearsagothisweek,MrZhuexpectedmany“headaches”,includingthelossofcustomsdutiesandthedistressoffarmersexposedtoforeigncompetition.

   YetthebetpaidoffforChina.Ithasblossomedintotheworld’sgreatestexporterandsecond-biggestimporter.Themarriageofforeignknow-how,Chineselabourandtheopen,globalmarkethassucceededbeyondanyone’spredictions.

   ItisinsteadChina’stradingpartnerswhonowcontemplateitsWTOmembershipwithfurrowedbrows（seearticle）.Theyhaveavarietyofcomplaints:

thatChinaexportstoomuch,swampingtheirmarketswithcheapmanufacturedgoods,subsidisedbyanundervaluedcurrency;thatithoardsessentialinputs,suchasrareearths,foritsownfirms;andthatitstillskewsitsownmarketagainstforeigncompanies,insomecasesbybeingslowtoimplementWTOrules（notablyonpiracy）,inothersbysuddenlyimposingunwrittenrulesthatareunfavourableorunknowabletoforeigners.Themeddlingstateletsmultinationalsin,onlytosqueezethemdryoftheirvaluabletechnologiesandthenpushthemout.

   Muchofthiscriticismisright.ChinamadeheroicreformsintheyearsarounditsWTOentry.Thatraisedexpectationsthatithasconspicuouslyfailedtomeet.Itsignedupformultilateralrules,butneglectedtheruleoflawathome.Freetradedidnotbringwiderfreedoms,andeventhetradewasnotexactlyfree.ItisinChina’sinteresttoliberaliseitsexchangeratefurther,topreventlocalofficialsfromdiscriminatingagainstforeignersandabovealltodofarmoretosupporttheglobaltradingsystem.TheWTOisunderminedwhenanymemberfloutstherules,nevermindoneasbigasChina.

   Toobigtobeabystander—ortobekeptout

   ButChina’ssinsshouldbeputintoperspective.IntermsofglobaltradeconsumerseverywherehavegainedfromcheapChinesegoods.Chinesegrowthhascreatedahugemarketforothercountries’exports.AndChina’sremainingbarriersareoftenexaggerated.ItismoreopentoimportsthanJapanwasatthesamestageofdevelopment,moreopentoforeigndirectinvestmentthanSouthKoreawasuntilthe1990s.Itstariffsarecappedat10%onaverage;Brazil’satover30%.AndinChina,unlikeIndia,youcanshopatWalmart,mostofthetime.

   AsforthehurdlesforeignfirmsfaceinChina,theyaredisgraceful—butsadlynoworsethaninotherdevelopingcountries.ThegrumblesarelouderinChinachieflybecausethestakesarehigher.ForeignersmayhavewonasmallersliceofChina’smarketthantheyhadhoped,butChinaisabiggerpiethananyonedaredtoexpect.HadChinabeenkeptoutoftheWTO,therewouldhavebeenlessgrowthforeverybody.AndtheWTOstillprovidesthebestmeanstodisciplineandcajole.Ratherthandeliveringcongressionalultimatums,AmericaandotherscouldmakemoreuseoftheWTO’srulestocurbChina’sworstinfractions.

   SocelebrateChina’stenyearsintheWTO:

weareallricherbecauseofit.But,whenitcomestotrade,China’srulersnowbadlyneedtogrowup.Theircheatingisharmingtheirownconsumersandstokingupprotectionismabroad.Thatcouldprovetobeeconomicself-harmonanepicscale.

Nunsandcontraception

THECatholicchurchcondemnsallformsofcontraception,apolicythatPaulVIlaidoutindetailinHumanaeVitaein1968.Overthesubsequentdecadesithashadvariousbrawlswithsecularauthoritiesovertheuseofbirthcontrolpills.Mostrecently,America’sbishopshavefoughttokeepBarackObama’shealthlawfromprovidingcontraceptionfree.Thechurchhasalreadywonanexemptionforwomenwhoworkforachurch,butitalsowantstokeepcoveragefromwomenwhoworkforanyCatholicinstitution,evenifthewomeninquestionarenotCatholicsandtheinstitutionhasasecularpurpose,suchasaschool,say,orhospital.Givenallthis,itwouldseemunlikelythatthechurchwouldwanttogivethePilltoitsnuns.

YetthatispreciselywhatarecentpaperintheLancetsuggests.Itsauthors,KaraBrittandRogerShort,ofMonashUniversityandtheUniversityofMelbourne,urgetheChurchtoprovideoralcontraceptiontothesisters.NunsneedthePillnottopreventpregnancy,buttopreventcancer.

   In1713,theauthorswrite,anItaliandoctorobservedthatnunshadaveryhighrateofthat“accursedpest”,breastcancer.ModernstudieshaveconfirmedthatCatholichaveahigherriskthanmostwomenofdyingfrombreast,ovariananduterinecancers.Womenwhobearchildrenhavefewermenstrualcycles,thankstobothpregnancyandlactation（whichsuppressesmenstruation）.Otherstudieshaveestablishedarelationshipbetweenmenstrualcyclesandtheprevalenceofcancer,withfewercyclesmeaningasmallerrisk.Nuns-whoarerequiredtobecelibate-experiencemorecyclesthanthetypicalwoman,andthereforerunahigherriskofdevelopingcancer.

   ThePillcanhelptocounteractthis.Theoverallmortalityinwomenwhouse,orhaveused,oralcontraception,is12%lowerthanamongthosewhodonot.Theeffectonovarianandendometrialcancerisgreater:

theriskofsuchcancersplummetsbyabout50%.DrsBrittandShortmakeacompellingmedicalcase.ButitisunlikelytoswaytheChurch

Cryingfreedom

CROSSINGanAthensstreetbyfootonawarmspringafternoonin1985,Icheckedataxiwaitingatthelighttomakesureitwasnotgoingtojumpthered. InthebackseatIspiedtheunmistakeablefigureofChristopherHitchens,largerthanwhenI’dlastseenhim,largerthananyoneintheirmid-30soughttobe,madelargerstillbyanunnecessaryovercoatthrownovertheshouldersinthemannerofaballetimpresariofromanearliertime.Hesawme,calledmyname,threwopenthedoorandsteppedintothestreet.Thelightwasnowgreenandtrafficwashooting.Heedlessasevertocontextbutwhollyinrole,heletgoanuncountedshowerofdrachmanotesintothegratefuldriver’shandandgreetedmetheatricallywithakissonbothcheeks.Likeme,hewas inAthenstowriteabouttheGreekelections.Thepreviousday,AndreasPapandreou—thefatheroftherecentlyreplacedprimeminister—hadhandilywonasecondparliamentarytermasleaderofhiscountry’sSocialDemocrats.Thoughnotlikeme,becauseChristopherwasnotlikeotherjournalists.“Ididn’tseeyouatthePresscentrelastnight,”Isaid.“No,”hereplied,“IwasatthePapandreous.”

   Howthenexthoursunfolded,Idon’trecall.Idovividlyrememberthataroundtwointhemorning,Christopherwasentertainingasmallgroupofusatarestaurant—quoting,parrying,recounting,provoking.Hisspeedofmemorywasdaunting.Healwaysseemedabletocitewhatanopponentinargumenthadsaidorwrittenyearsearlier,deployingitquicklyandwittilyatthesurestmomenttoexposethemasfools,ditherersorhypocrites.Thatessentially18th-centuryskillmadehimaslethalontelevisionashewasonthepage.Hewrotethewayhespoke,inboutadesandinparagraphs,oftenwithablood-levelofalcoholthatwouldleavemostofusspeechless.Hewascatholicinhisloveandknowledgeofthewrittenword,butonthewholestayedoffmovies,theatre,visualartsandmusic.HadheatraceofPuritansuspicionthatsuchartswereelite,effeteandnotmorallyserious?

Isuspectitwasmorethateachofthoseartshasitsstandardsofperformanceand