四级模拟试题Model Test1.docx

四级模拟试题Model Test1.docx

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四级模拟试题ModelTest1

ModelTest1

PartIWriting（30minutes）

Directions:

Forthispartyouareallowed30minutestowriteashortessayentitledShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?

Youshouldwriteatleast120wordsfollowingtheoutlinegivenbelow.

1.近年来越来越多的公共场所禁烟

2.这项举措在受到拥护的同时也引发了争议

3.你的看法

ShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?

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PartIIReadingComprehensive（SkimmingandScanning）（15minutes）

Low-carbonFuture:

WeCanAffordtoGoGreen

Tacklingclimatechangewillcostconsumerstheearth.Thosewhocampaignforagreenrevolutionareouttodestroyourwesternlifestyles.Sucharethecriesofopponentsofemissionscuts,andtheirmessagehaspoliticalimpact:

anumberofsurveyshavefoundthattheenthusiasmofvotersforpoliciestoreduceclimatechangefallsoffasthepricetagincreases.

However,anewmodeling（模型化）exercisesuggeststhatthesefearsarelargelyunfounded.ItprojectsthatradicalcutstotheUK’semissionswillcausebarelynoticeableincreasesinthepriceoffood,drinkandmostothergoodsby2050.Electricityandpetrolcostswillrisesignificantly,butwiththerightpoliciesinplace,saythemodellers,thisneednotleadtobigchangeinourlifestyle.

“Theseresultsshowthattheglobalprojecttofightclimatechangeisfeasible,”saysAlexBowen,aclimatepolicyexpertattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.“It’snotsuchabigaskaspeoplearemakingout.”

Althoughitisimpossibletopreciselypredictpricesfourdecreasefromnow,theexerciseisoneofthemostdetailedexaminationsyetoftheimpactofclimatechangepoliciesonUKconsumers.Itprovidesausefulroughguidetooureconomicfuture.

ThoughitsresultsspeakdirectlytotheUKconsumers,previousresearchhascometosimilarconclusionsfortheUS.InJune,onestudyfoundthatiftheUSweretocutemissionsby50percentby2050,pricesofmostconsumergoodswouldincreasebylessthan5percent.ThefindingsarealsoconsistentwithanalysesbythePewCenteronGlobalClimatechangeinWashingtonDC.“Evencuttingemissionsby80percentoverfourdecadeshasaverysmalleffectonconsumersinmostareas,”saysManikRoyofthePewCenter.“Thechallengeisnowtoconvinceconsumersandpolicy-Makersthatthisisthecase.”

TheIntergovernmentalpanelonClimateChangerecommendsthatwealthynationscuttheiremissionstobetween80and95percentbelow1990levelsby2050inordertoavoidtheworsteffectsofclimatechange.TheUKgovernmentaimstoreduceitscontributionby80percentandleadersoftheotherG8nationshavediscussedfollowingsuit.Tomeetthisgoal,industrieswillhavetoslashfossilfuelconsumption,andlow-carbonpowersourceswillhavetomassivelyexpand.Companieswillhavetopayincreasinglyhigherpricesfortherighttoemitgreenhousegases.

Howwillthisaffecttheaveragecitizen'swallet?

Tomeasuretheimpactofthe80percenttargetontheUKpopulation,NewScientistapproachedCambridgeEconometrics,afirmknownforitsmodelingoftheEuropeaneconomy.Thefirmusedhistoriceconomicdatatopredicttheimpactofemissionsreductionsonpricesinover40categoriesofgoodsandservices.Itcomparedtheimpactofthe80percentcutwithabaselinescenarioinwhichthegovernmenttakesnoactionotherthanthelimitedemissionsrestrictionsalreadyinplaceasaresultoftheKyotoprotocol（京都协议书）.

Mostofthepriceincreasesareaconsequenceofrisingenergycosts,inpartbecausecoalandgasarereplacedbymoreexpensivelow-carbonsources.Thepriceofelectricityisprojectedtobe15percenthigherin2050comparedwiththebaseline.Intoday'sprices,thatwouldaddaround£5ontotypicalmonthlyhouseholdelectricitybills.Itwillalsoresultinhigherpriceselsewhere,aseveryindustrialsectoruseselectricity.

Butelectricityandotherformsofenergymakeuponlyasmallpartofthepriceofmostgoods.Otherfactors-rawmaterials,labourandtaxes-arefarmoreimportant.Theenergythatgoesintoproducingfood,alcoholicdrinksandtobacco,forexample,makesupjust2percentoftheconsumerprice.Formotorvehiclepurchasesandhotelstays,thefigureis1percent.Onlyforenergy-intensiveindustriesdoesthecontributionclimbabove3percent.

Asaresult,mostproductscostjustafewpercentmoreby2050.Atcurrentprices,goinglow-carbonisforecasttoaddaround5pencetothepriceofasliceofbreadorapintofbeer.Thepriceofhouseholdappliancessuchaswashingmachinesrisesbyafewpounds.

Thereisonemajorexceptiontothepattern.Airlinesdonotcurrentlyhavealow-carbonalternativetojetfuel.Unlessoneisfound,theywillbearthefullburdenofcarbonpricing,andaveragefareswillrisebyatleast140percent-raisingthecostofatypicalLondontoNewYorkreturntripfromaround£350to£840.

Achievingtheoverallpictureoflowpricesdoesrequiregovernmentaction.Themodelforecaststhatby2050naturalgasandpetrolwillcost160percentand32percentmorerespectively.Toavoidlargepricerisesinhomeheatingandroadtransportwhilestillhittingthe80percenttarget,theCambridgeresearchershadtobuildtwomajorpoliciesintotheiranalysis.Theyassumedthatfuturegovernmentswillprovidegrantstohelpswitchalldomesticheatingandcookingtoelectricity,andinvestinthebasicfacilitiesneededforelectriccarstoalmostcompletelyreplacepetroleum-fuelledvehicles.

BothpolicieshavebeendiscussedinrecentUKgovernmentstrategydocuments,thoughthedetailofhowtheywouldbeimplementedstillneedsfurtherdiscussion.Firmpoliciesmustfollowifambitiousemissionscutsaregoingtobemade,saysChrisThoungofCambridgeEconometrics.

Soistacklingclimatechangegoingtobeeasierthanexpected,intermsofconsumercosts?

WhiletheCambridgeEconometricsmodeliswidelyrespectedandregularlyusedbytheUKgovernment'sclimatechangeadvisers,anyattempttoforecastfourdecadesaheadcanbedivertedbyunforeseenevents.Thatleadssomeeconomiststoquestionthemodel'sresults.

Forexample,companiescouldmovetocountrieswithlessstrictcarbonregulations,pointsoutRichardToloftheEconomicandSocialResearchInstituteinDublin,Ireland.IncomesintheUKwouldfall,makinggoodsrelativelymoreexpensive.Tolalsoquestionswhetheritisreasonabletousehistoricalpricesasabasisforprojectingbeyond2020.

Despitethis,theCambridgeEconometricsresults,togetherwithotherrecentstudies,doprovideausefulguideforgovernments,saysMichaelGrubboftheUniversityofCambridge.Theysuggestthattheoverallchallengeisconquerable,evenifmanyofthedetailswillonlybecomeclearinyearstocome.

1.Whydoestheenthusiasmofthepolicy-makerstolessonclimatedecrease?

A）Economicrecessioniswidelyspread

B）Westernlifestylesaredestroyed

C）Thecostofagreenrevolutionrises

D）Theenvironmentisimproved

2.Accordingtothemodellers,emissioncutswon’tchangethelifestyle,providedthat_____

A）thepriceoffoodanddrinkremainstable

B）appropriatepoliciesarecarriesout

C）electricityandpetrolcostsdon’trise

D）thepublichasastrongfaithinit

3.ThestudentsreleasedinUKandUSshowthat_________.

A）Cuttingemissionswon’taffectthepriceofdailygoodsmuch

B）Thetwocountries’situationsofthegreenrevolutionaredifferent

C）Theconsumersstronglysupportcuttingemission

D）Themostchallengingproblemishowtostabilizetheprice

4.CambridgeEconometricspredictedtheimpactofemissionsreductionsonpricesfrom———

A）Computeranalysis

B）Pasteconomicdata

C）Currentcategoriesofgoods

D）Abaselinesituation

5.What’sthemajorcauseofthehigherpriceaccordingtothepassage?

A）Highertaxesoncarbonemission

B）Changesofthelifestyle

C）Therisinglivingstandards

D）Risingenergycosts

6.Whyaretheairfarespredictedtorisedramatically?

A）Moreandmorepeoplewilltaketheplane

B）Nocleanenergycanreplacethejetfuel

C）Manyairlinescollapseduetocarbonpricing

D）Thecostofanairlineincreasesforfindingnewenergy

7.ThetwomajorpoliciesbuiltbytheCambridgeresearchersinclude______

A）imposinghighertaxesforpetroleum-fuelledvehicles

B）Stabilizationofthepriceofdailygoodsandservice

C）Theelectrificationofresidentialheatingandcookingsystem

D）Theprohibitionofdrivingpetroleum-fuelledvehicles

8.Someeconomistsdoubtthemodel’sresultsbecausethepredictionmaybedivertedby____

9.RichardTolpointsoutthatgoodsinUKmaybecomemoreexpensiveascompaniescouldfindotherlocationswith___________________.

10.TheCambridgeEconometricsresultsprovideausefulguideforpolicy-makers,withasuggestionthatthegovernmentcan________thechallenge.

PartIIIListeningComprehension（35minutes）

SectionA

11.A）thephysicsclassisverydifficult

B）thephysicsclassisnotgivenhisterm

C）thephysicsclassiseasierthanpeoplethink

D）Thephysicsclassshouldbecancelledifpossible

12.A）hewassatisfiedwithhismilitaryservice

B）itwasthefirsttimehehadbeenabroad

C）hehadneverbeenonawarship

D）hehadbeenonthewarshipbefore

13.A）puticeonherfoot

B）seeadoctoratonce

C）giveherfootagoodrest

D）takethedoctor’sadvice

14.A）theybrokedownandcouldgonofurther

B）theyhaven’tachievedmuch

C）theyhaveproducedageneralagreement

D）theyhaven’tstartedyet

15.A）thewomanisoutofshape

B）thewomandoesn’tneedanewracket

C）thewomanalsoneedsnewtennisshoes

D）Thewomanspenttoomuchonhertennisshoes

16.A）heshouldmakeanapologytoMary

B）hemaytalktoMarydirectly

C）heshou