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吸烟论文
TheEmpiricalAnalysisof
theFactorsAffectingAdultSmoking
Abstract:
Byusingthe2006CHNScross-sectionaldata,thearticletriestofigureoutthemainfactorsinfluencingsmokingbehavior.ThemethodincludestwoIV,oneforincome(IVisnumberofstaffinjob’sorganization)andtheotherforhealth(IViswhethergettingmedicalinsurance),aproxyvariable,dummyinteractionterm,LPMandlogitmodel.Theconclusionisageandhealthbothhavequadraticrelationshipwithsmoke,andthemostsignificantvariablesaremale,alcoholandeducation.
Student:
马超凡
IDnumber:
41110042
Ⅰ.Introduction
Nowadays,thenumberofsmokersinchinahasbeenover300million.Andtherearetotalabout540millionsmokersincludingpassivesmokers.Thecloserelationshipbetweensmokingandhealthcontributesmokingtobethefourthmostdangerousfactorthatinfluenceshealth.Everyyear,therewereabout1millionpeoplediedfromtobaccorelateddiseases.Thereisnodoubtthatsmokingreallybringsgrimchallengetohumansociety.
Smoking,asanaddictivebehavior,hascomplexcontributingfactors.Someofthemareevidentlikemale,education,alcohol,healthconditionandage.Someofthemjustexertsubtleinfluenceonsmokingbehaviorlikemarriedcondition,numberofsiblingsandsleep.Nowweareinaperiodofsocialtransition.Inthefastpaceoflife,thesefactorsareworkingtogethertoproducemoresmokers.
Tosolvethisseriousproblem,numerousrelevantresearcheshavebeenconducted.Mostresearchesareaboutthesmokingbehaviorsofteenagersandcollegestudents,fortheyarethemostpotentialsmokers.MaXiaobin,aprofessionaldoctor,findthatpeersmokingbehaviorsarecontagious.Onceastudentformsthisbadhabit,hewillattractandaffecthisfriendstoimitatehimandtrytosmoke.Andsubsequentlythisbadbehaviorcanbespreadwidely.Teenagersoftenhavenoawarenessofseriousharmofsmoking.Theyoncestartsmoking,thentheywillindulgeinitforthemoment’spleasure.Ontheotherhand,manystudentsjustregardsmokingasshowinguniquepersonality,whichencouragesthebadatmosphere.
XieJia,apostgraduatestudentofZhejiangUniversity,mainlyfocusesontheeffectsofmentalpressureonsmoking.Stressmeasurementresultsshowthatthemajoritypopulationisfacinggreaterstress,especiallythepeoplewithlowincome,loweducations.Therefore,effectivelysolvetheproblemofexcessivestresswillbeapowerfulfactortoreduceurbanresidents’smokingrate.Itissuggestedthatthegovernmentshouldfocusonthisgroupofpeople,notonlyconcernedabouttheirsmokingbehavior,butalsotocareaboutlivingandworkingpressure.
Afterreadingsomanypapersaboutsmoking,Ifindmostofthemareaboutteenagers.Eventhoughthereareafewpapersaboutadults,thesepapersarealmostaboutthesurveyresultsinmacroeconomics.Theyjustfailtodigoutthedeepreasonsbehindthesmokingbehaviors.Inmypaper,theresearchfocusesonadult.Firstfigureoutthecomprehensivecontributingfactorsofsmoking,andthenstudyhowtheyleadtosmoking.
Ⅱ.Datadescription:
Variabledescription:
1)Smoke(dependentvariable):
thenumberofcigarettessmokedeveryday
2)Ifsmoke(dependentvariable):
adummyvariable.“1”meansthepersonhassmoked.”0”meansthepersonneversmoked.
3)Education:
thenumberofyearsofeducationthepersonhasreceived.Iholdthebeliefthatpeoplewhoreceivedmoreeducationtendtosmokeless.
4)Male:
adummyvariablewith“1”representingmale.Ingeneralmenaremoreliketostartsmokeandsmokemorecigarettes.
5)City:
adummyvariable.“1”meansthepersonlivesincity.“0”meanshepersonlivesincountry.It’shardtosaywhichgroupsmokesmore.
6)Age:
theyearsoldtheperson
7)Sports:
adummyvariable.Definepeoplewhodon’tparticipateordislikewalking,taichi,allkindsofballgamesandfitnessactivitiesas“0”.Theotherisdefinedas“1”.
8)Income:
itisthequantityoftotalincomeinoneyear.Itiscalculatedbythefollowingequation:
(firstprofessionalmonthlywage+monthlysubsidy)*12+firstprofessionalyea-endbonus+(secondprofessionalmonthlywage+monthlysubsidy)*12+secondprofessionalyea-endbonus+farmingincome+Animalhusbandryincome+fishingincome+businessincome.
9)Starttime:
ifthepersonhassmoked,thisisthestartingageofsmoking.Maybestarttimeispositivelycorrelatedwithsmoke
10)Alcohol:
thisisadummyvariable.“1”meansthepersonwhodrinksalcohol.“0”meansthepersondoesn’tdrinkalcohol.Peoplewhodrinkalcoholaremorelikelysmoke.
11)Sleep:
thehoursthepersonspendsonsleepingperday.
12)Health:
thisistheresultofself-evaluation.“1”meansverygood,”2”meansgood,”3”meansordinary,and“4”meansbad.
13)Married:
adummyvariable.”1”meansthepersonhasmarriedandisstillhasamarriagerelationship.”0”meansthepersonwhoisunmarriedordivorcedorhisspousehasbeendead.
14)Siblings:
thenumberofsiblingsthepersonhas.
15)Midnsur:
adummyvariable,”1”meansthepersonhasamedicalinsurance.
16)Workers:
thenumberofstafftheperson’sjobfirmororganizationhave.
Possibleomittedvariables:
1)Thecigarette’sbrandandpriceeachsmokerbuys.Itisrelatedwithincomeandcityandmaybeeducation.Sothisomittedvariableisboundtoproducebiasandinconsistency.Weassumethatpeoplewhobuylowpricecigarettescansmokermoreeveryday,socigarettepriceispositivelyrelatedwithsmokingquantity.Thisomittedvariablehasapositivecoefficient.Thenweknowpeoplewhohavemoreincome,isincity,andhavehighereducationtendtobuyhigherpricecigarettes.Soincome,cityandeducationallhavepositivecorrelationswithcigaretteprice.Sothebiases(coefficientofprice*correlation)ofcoefficientsofthesethreevariables(income,cityandeducation)areallpositive.
2)Theworkingpressure.Becauseitisunobservable,Ifindaproxyvariable.
Whours:
theusualworkinghoursinoneweek.Inmyview,peoplewithmoreworkingpressuretendtosmokemore.Althoughhisproxyvariablecangeneratebiasonthreeparts:
intercept,workingpressureanderrorterm,itinsuresthattheallotherimportantvariablesareunbiased.Withoutthisproxyvariable,allexplanatoryvariableswillbebiasedbecauseofomittedvariable.
Sampleselection:
1)Ihavedroppedtheobservationswhoseanyvariableisnegative.
2)Dropalltheobservationswhosevaluesarebeyondtherangesetforeachvariable.
2)ThenIdeliberatelyhavedroppedtheobservationswhoseincome<100.Foronething,itisimpossibleforapersonhasincomeofaye1arlessthan100,sotheseobservationsareoutliers.Foranother,althoughthiscancausenonrandomsamples,ithasnoeffectonunbiasedandconsistentestimatorsinthepopulationmodel,fortheregressionfunctionE(smoke|income,age,maleandsoon)isthesameforanysubsetofthepopulation,whichisexogenoussampleselection.
Afterdoingthesetwosteps,thesamplesizeisreducedfrom9528to3179observations.
Ⅲ.Modelspecification:
Theoriginalmodelis
Smoke=β0+β1education+β2male+β3age+β4income+β5alcohol+β6married+β7siblings+β8sleep+β9city+β10sports+β11health+u
Next,itisneededtobemodified.
1)Firstly,nowthatfunctionalmisspecificationcanalsobeduetoomittedvariable,intheequation,whours(workinghoursperweek)asaproxyvariableofworkingpressureshouldbeadded.
2)Secondly,checkingwhetherquadraticorcubicitemsareneeded.
Iguessagehasaquadraticrelationshipwithsmoke,soIaddage^2(markedasage2)variable.Thisgraphdescribescigarettessmokedperdayonaveragefordifferentperiodsofage.Thedatausedareall3179observationsincluding2268nonsmokerswhosecigarettessmokedperdayare0.
Thegraphshowsthatsmokeisincreasingasageincreasesuntilabout50-55years-old.Thensmokedecreasesasageincreases.
UsingRESETtest,Iestimatetwomodelsforsmoke.Thefirstonehasallvariablesinlevelform.Thesecondoneaddsage^2.TheRESETstatisticforequation
(1)turnsouttobe26.7,thisisthevalueofanF(2,3130),andtheassociatedp-valueis0.0000,thisistheevidenceoffunctionalmisspecificationin
(1).TheRESETstatisticfor
(2)is24.6,withp-value=0.0000.Sowecanseetheequation
(2)isbetter,butthefunctionalmisspecificationisstillaproblem.
Thenusethe3significantvariables’square(health,education,siblings)respectivelyaddedtotheequationtoseewhetherthefunctionisimproved.Thenhealthsquaregivesasignificantt=-2.96.Soremainingthehealthsquareintotheequationisnecessary.
3)Thirdly,checkwhetherlogitemsisneededwith.Incomeshouldbeusedasln(income),becauseincomerangesfrom100to960,720yuan.Soweshouldtrytoshortentherange.Afterdoingthis,incomerangesfrom4.60517to13.77544.AndtheMizon&Richasrdtestalsoshowslnincomeisbetter.Itrytouseln(whours)toreplacewhours,but756observationshave0workinghours,solnwhoursisnotavailable.
4)Fourthly,usechow-testtocheckwhetherinteractiontermsareneeded.Atfirst,Iusemarried*other12variablesrespectivelytoaddtothefunction.ThenF(12,3116)=1.46withp-value0.13,sowecan’trejectthenullhypothesisat5%significancelevelandevenat10%significancelevel.Sotheinteractiontermsarejointlyinsignificant.
ThenIusemale*other12variablesrespectivelytoaddtothefunction.TheF=7.2withp-value0.0000.Sothereisnodoubtthatsomemaleinteractiontermsmustbeadded.ThenIchoosefourverysignificantinteractiontermsmale*education,male*age,male*age2andmale*alcohol,witht-statisticsareover5toaddtotheequation.Unfortunately,originallysignificantvariableslikeeducation,male,age,