About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Longterm Appreciation of RMB.docx

About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Longterm Appreciation of RMB.docx

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AboutInfluences0nourimportandexporttradeandCountermeasuresofLongtermAppreciationofRMB

AboutInfluences0nourimportandexporttradeandCountermeasuresofLong-termAppreciationofRMB

中文摘要:

自2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度;与此同时，人民币汇率调整为1美元=8.11元，升值2%。

由此，人民币在经历亚洲金融危机以来的稳定和实际升值以后，终于拉开了正式升值的序幕。

根据各方面的分析，到2020年以前，人民币将处于长期升值的趋势之中。

众所周知，汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响，因为汇率反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格，所以汇率的改变将直接传导给进出口商品和服务的价格，从而影响到进出口数量。

本文研究的范围是人民币升值给进出口贸易带来的影响，重点研究2007年以来人民币加速升值对进出口贸易带来的影响，包括正面影响、负面影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。

本研究基于权威部门的统计数据，利用国际贸易相关理论，采用实证和分析相结合的方法，试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速升值对我国进出口贸易的影响，以及面对人民币升值应该的一些措施。

Abstract

SinceJuly21,2005,Chinabegantoimplementamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystembasedonmarketsupplyanddemand,withreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.Atthesametime,RMBexchangerateadjuststo$1=8.11RMBwithanappreciationby2%.Thus,aftertheAsianfinancialcrisisintheexperienceofthestabilityandarealappreciation,RMBfinallystartsthepreludeofappreciation.Accordingtotheanalysis,by2020,theRMBwillbelongbeforetheupwardtrend.Asisknown,rateofexchangehasgreatinfluenceonimportandexporttrade,becausetheexchangerateisakindofcurrencyreflectstherelativetoanothercurrencyexchange.Sothechangeofexchangeratewilldirectlyaffectimportandexportpricesofgoodsandservices,thusaffectingimportandexportquantity.ThisresearchisabouttheinfluenceofRMBappreciationforimportandexporttrade,includingtheimpactofpositiveeffectsandnegativeeffects,import,export,importandexportcommoditystructureandwaysoftrade,etc.Thisresearchisbasedontheauthorityofthestatisticsdepartment,usingthetheoryofinternationaltrade,empiricalandanalysisusingthemethodofcombining,attemptstocomprehensivelyanalyzetheappreciationofRMBappreciationonChinainparticular,toacceleratetheimportandexporttrade,andsomeofthemeasuresshouldbetakentohandleRMBappreciation.

INTRODUCTION

Indifferentperiodofeconomicdevelopment,China'sRMBexchangeratemechanismadopteddifferent.InJuly2005,China'sRMBexchangerateformationmechanismwasreformedwithareferencetobasketofcurrenciesofmediationtoimplementamanagedfloatingexchangeratesystem.Sincethen,RMBwentintoalong-termslowappreciationtrack.Especiallysince2007,theRMBappreciationhasacceleratedthepaceofrecordhighs.ToDecember24,2007,theRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarbreakthrough7.3315:

1andhasappreciated6.09%.AndChina'simportandexporttradehasalsoexperiencedatortuoushistory.Sincethereformandopeninguppolicy,China'simportandexportwentintothetrackofhealthydevelopment,especiallyinrecentyears,China'sforeigntradevolume,qualityandstructurehaveachieveddegreesofimprovement.In2002,Chinabecametheworld'sfifthlargesttradingnation.In2004Chinamadeit6yearsearliertoimplementalongtermgoaltogaina10000billonforeigntrade,andfinallythetotalnumberwas1.15477trillionU.S.dollars.China’sforeigntradeshares

of12%oftheworldastheworld'sthirdlargesttradingpower,behindtheUnitedStatesandGermany.Sincethen,China'simportandexporttradecontinuestoleadadouble-digitgrowth.In2006,China'sforeigntradevolumereached1.7604trillionU.Sdollars,in2007breakingtwotrillionU.Sdollars,thetotalforeigntradereached2.167trillionU.S.dollars.

HowmuchimpactonChina'simportandexporttradedoesRMBappreciationhave?

Whatarethepositiveeffectsandnegativeeffects?

WhatkindofinfluencedoesRMBappreciationhaveonChina'simportandexportquantity,quality,amount,structureandwaysoftrade?

ThisarticlewillfocusinJanuary2007sincetherevaluation,forexample,fromtheperspectiveofempiricalandstatisticaltomakeananalysisofRMBappreciationonChina'simportandexporttrade.

Asisknown,rateofexchangehasgreatinfluenceonimportandexporttrade,becausetheexchangerateisakindofcurrencyreflectstherelativetoanothercurrencyexchange.Sothechangeofexchangeratewilldirectlyaffectimportandexportpricesofgoodsandservices,thusaffectingimportandexportquantity.RMBappreciationonChina'simportandexporttradecanbedividedintopositiveandnegativeeffectsofboth.

?

RMBappreciation’spositiveimpactontheimportandexporttrade

1.1TosomeextenttoimprovethetradeenvironmentinChina

Foralongtime,Chinaimplementsmercantilesystem,thatistobringdownproductioncosts,expandproductintheinternationalmarketshareandexportstoearnmoreforeignexchange.Undertheguidanceofthislineofthought,China'stradesurplusgrows,foreignexchangereserveshaverisensteadily,andonlyyearsofeffortChinabecamethe

world'sfirst,anditsamountislargerandlargerthanthesecondone.Tosomeextent,surplusandfore